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分析:黑莓平板电脑将重蹈TouchPad覆辙

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月20日

另有分析师指出,索尼平板电脑或将成为下一个悲剧。

    

    黑莓PlayBook

    华尔街最优秀、最聪明的人最近纷纷表达了不同程度的震惊,起因在于上周四的一则消息。该报道称RIM在截至五月份的一个季度交付了50万部黑莓(BlackBerry)PlayBook平板电脑,但在止于8月份的这个季度仅仅发货20万部PlayBook,这意味着此前50万部PlayBook中的大部分都尚未卖出,仍然呆在商店货架上。

    上周五,证券公司Ticonderoga的布莱恩•怀特在致客户的报告中写道:“我们认为PlayBook将毫无疑问地重蹈惠普TouchPad的覆辙,成为iPad平板电脑市场霸权的又一个牺牲品。”怀特指的是在TouchPad试图动摇苹果市场份额未果后,惠普(Hewlett-Packard)毅然决定抛弃平板电脑业务。

    英雄所见略同。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的马克•莫斯科维茨称,在被谷歌(Google)收购之前,摩托罗拉移动(Motorola Mobility)的平板电脑同样乏善可陈。至于索尼(Sony)即将推出的平板电脑,他已经有过接触,但他认为这款产品一样很难有所作为。

    莫斯科维茨在上周五致客户的报告中表示:“在今天正式发布之前……我们提前观摩了索尼平板电脑的展示。但它并没有给我们留下什么深刻的印象。在我们看来,索尼平板电脑缺乏iPad那种精致纤细的感觉,而且其倾斜式背部设计用起来并不方便。”

    莫斯科维茨驳斥了坊间最近的猜测,有传闻称苹果将在圣诞节前发布iPad 3。

    “我们最近的研究仍然表明,这样的设备今年不会投入生产。在我们看来,苹果应该并不着急。其他平板电脑仍然跌跌撞撞,而且该趋势可能一直延续到2012年末。”

    译者:项航

    Wall Street's best and brightest are expressing varying degrees of shock at the news Thursday that Research in Motion (RIMM), which delivered 500,000 BlackBerry PlayBook tablets in the quarter that ended in May, shipped a dismal 200,000 in the August quarter -- suggesting that most of those first half-million units are still sitting, unsold, on store shelves.

    "We believe the PlayBook is poised to follow HP's TouchPad as the next casualty of iPad's tablet dominance." wrote Ticonderoga's Brian White in a note to clients Friday, a reference to Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) decision to pull the plug on its tablet after the TouchPad failed to make a dent in Apple's (AAPL) market share.

    In a similar vein, J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz noted that Motorola Mobility's (MMI) tablets had also failed to gain much traction before Google (GOOG) offered to buy the company. And having had a chance to play with Sony's (SNE) forthcoming tablet entry, he doesn't hold much hope for that one either.

    "We had the opportunity to demo a tablet from Sony ... before today's official launch," he told clients in a Friday note. "We were not impressed. To us, Sony's tablet lacks the refined, sleek feel of the iPad and its bezel-like back is not user-friendly."

    Moskowitz dismissed recent speculation that Apple could release an iPad 3 before the holiday season.

    "Our latest research continues to indicate that there is no such device slated for production this year. In our view, Apple should be in no rush. The other tablet entrants have stumbled so far, and that trend-line could persist deep into 2012."

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