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经济崩溃是美国人最担心的问题,这对拜登来说是个坏消息

经济崩溃是美国人最担心的问题,这对拜登来说是个坏消息

CHLOE BERGER 2024-04-28
美国人认为前方乌云密布,但原因不尽相同。

图片来源:SHARPLY_DONE—GETTY IMAGES

地震在不寻常的地方发生,杀人大黄蜂数年前短暂登场(还有印象吗?),Trader Joe’s的香蕉数十年来首次涨价,世界似乎越来越难以预测。就像把曼妥思薄荷糖放入一瓶可乐里一样,压力正在冒泡,并有可能破裂。

根据益普索消费者追踪发布的一项民意调查,三分之一(33%)的美国人担心美国末日将是一场波及全国的经济全面崩溃。其他末日焦虑主要围绕第三次世界大战(25%)、气候变化(19%)、另一场大流行病(12%)和杀手机器人(2%)。一部分受访者(6%)表示,当他们担心末日到来时,并没有想到上述任何一种情况。

大选在即,美国人对财政问题的看法可能会成为总统拜登的眼中钉,原因是他希望再连任四年。美国,这个相对年轻的国家,处在微妙的节点上:是在经历增长的阵痛还是时代的终结,这取决于你询问的是谁。

随着两极分化加剧,尤其是激进的右翼势力,人们对国家民主的满意度正创下历史新低。恰如其分的是,不同党派预测了迥异的混乱局面。虽然平均有三分之一的美国人关注经济动荡,但共和党人比民主党人更关注经济动荡,这一比例分别为48%和22%。独立选民的这一比例为37%。民主党人最关注气候变化,这一比例为32%。共和党人的这一比例仅为6%,独立选民为12%。虽然气候变化已成为一个党派问题,但地球正处于危机状态,正如联合国气候变化负责人警告的那样,在气候变化恶化之前,我们还有两年时间真正行动起来。

在经历了多年通货膨胀超过工资增长之后,美国人终于得到了喘息的机会,但许多人仍然感到余悸犹存。许多人在处理巨额学生贷款、努力应对金融动荡,以及为买房、生子或退休等令人难以置信的昂贵生活里程碑而面临一场艰苦的战斗时,愤世嫉俗的情绪弥漫开来。尽管有相对的收益——尤其是在工会成功加持下的工人阶级领域——真正的中产阶级在这个极度不平等的时代已经摇摇欲坠。

资深数据记者萨拉·费尔德曼(Sarah Feldman)对《财富》杂志表示:“经济表现和任何经济灾难都在公众的脑海中挥之不去。美国人是否注意到经济改善并从中受益,将关乎总统拜登在未来7个月能否取得成功。但是,就目前而言,总统拜登在经济方面的表现不佳,他需要缓解通胀压力,以便赢得更多公众支持。”

诚然,正如经济学家经常指出的那样,数据显示,美国经济比许多美国人感觉到的要强劲。但人们仍然感到沮丧,原因是大流行病和持续迫近的经济衰退让他们寝食难安,因此拜登政府将承担大部分责任。一般来说,在经济不景气时期,执政党往往会受到冲击。(尽管如此,左倾智库美国经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)的一篇新论文称,民主党执政时,经济表现往往更为强劲。)

在所有人的潜在灾难清单中,排在第二位的是另一场世界大战,占总数的25%,各党派的关注度几乎相当。事实上,美国人经常听到社会经济动荡、战争和种族灭绝的消息。总统拜登在以色列问题上的不作为已经让他以往的一些选民(尤其是年轻选民)不再抱有幻想,这也是此次大选的另一个争论点。

有一点是肯定的:美国在应对各种新兴危机和酝酿中的焦虑方面已经忙得不可开交。在我们解决机器人杀手等不太明显的问题之前,下一任接管这个陷入困境的国家的老年人将不得不先解决人们购买生活用品要花多少钱的问题。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

地震在不寻常的地方发生,杀人大黄蜂数年前短暂登场(还有印象吗?),Trader Joe’s的香蕉数十年来首次涨价,世界似乎越来越难以预测。就像把曼妥思薄荷糖放入一瓶可乐里一样,压力正在冒泡,并有可能破裂。

根据益普索消费者追踪发布的一项民意调查,三分之一(33%)的美国人担心美国末日将是一场波及全国的经济全面崩溃。其他末日焦虑主要围绕第三次世界大战(25%)、气候变化(19%)、另一场大流行病(12%)和杀手机器人(2%)。一部分受访者(6%)表示,当他们担心末日到来时,并没有想到上述任何一种情况。

美国人无法就国家可能走向灭亡的原因达成一致。

大选在即,美国人对财政问题的看法可能会成为总统拜登的眼中钉,原因是他希望再连任四年。美国,这个相对年轻的国家,处在微妙的节点上:是在经历增长的阵痛还是时代的终结,这取决于你询问的是谁。

随着两极分化加剧,尤其是激进的右翼势力,人们对国家民主的满意度正创下历史新低。恰如其分的是,不同党派预测了迥异的混乱局面。虽然平均有三分之一的美国人关注经济动荡,但共和党人比民主党人更关注经济动荡,这一比例分别为48%和22%。独立选民的这一比例为37%。民主党人最关注气候变化,这一比例为32%。共和党人的这一比例仅为6%,独立选民为12%。虽然气候变化已成为一个党派问题,但地球正处于危机状态,正如联合国气候变化负责人警告的那样,在气候变化恶化之前,我们还有两年时间真正行动起来。

在经历了多年通货膨胀超过工资增长之后,美国人终于得到了喘息的机会,但许多人仍然感到余悸犹存。许多人在处理巨额学生贷款、努力应对金融动荡,以及为买房、生子或退休等令人难以置信的昂贵生活里程碑而面临一场艰苦的战斗时,愤世嫉俗的情绪弥漫开来。尽管有相对的收益——尤其是在工会成功加持下的工人阶级领域——真正的中产阶级在这个极度不平等的时代已经摇摇欲坠。

资深数据记者萨拉·费尔德曼(Sarah Feldman)对《财富》杂志表示:“经济表现和任何经济灾难都在公众的脑海中挥之不去。美国人是否注意到经济改善并从中受益,将关乎总统拜登在未来7个月能否取得成功。但是,就目前而言,总统拜登在经济方面的表现不佳,他需要缓解通胀压力,以便赢得更多公众支持。”

诚然,正如经济学家经常指出的那样,数据显示,美国经济比许多美国人感觉到的要强劲。但人们仍然感到沮丧,原因是大流行病和持续迫近的经济衰退让他们寝食难安,因此拜登政府将承担大部分责任。一般来说,在经济不景气时期,执政党往往会受到冲击。(尽管如此,左倾智库美国经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)的一篇新论文称,民主党执政时,经济表现往往更为强劲。)

在所有人的潜在灾难清单中,排在第二位的是另一场世界大战,占总数的25%,各党派的关注度几乎相当。事实上,美国人经常听到社会经济动荡、战争和种族灭绝的消息。总统拜登在以色列问题上的不作为已经让他以往的一些选民(尤其是年轻选民)不再抱有幻想,这也是此次大选的另一个争论点。

有一点是肯定的:美国在应对各种新兴危机和酝酿中的焦虑方面已经忙得不可开交。在我们解决机器人杀手等不太明显的问题之前,下一任接管这个陷入困境的国家的老年人将不得不先解决人们购买生活用品要花多少钱的问题。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Between earthquakes popping up in unusual places, murder hornets making a brief debut a couple years ago (remember those?), and the price of a Trader Joe’s banana rising for the first time in decades, the world seems to be increasingly unpredictable. Much like a Mentos mint popped into a Coke bottle, the pressure is bubbling and potentially set to burst.

A third (33%) of Americans fear the end of the U.S. will be the result of a total economic collapse that ripples across the nation, according to a poll released by Ipsos’ Consumer Tracker. Other apocalyptic anxieties revolve around World War III (25%), climate change (19%), another pandemic (12%), and killer robots (2%). A portion of respondents (6%) say none of the above are on their mind when they fear the end.

Americans can’t agree on why the nation might fall.

COURTESY OF IPSOS

With an election on the horizon, the nation’s feelings toward finances could be a thorn in President Biden’s side as he seeks to hold onto his job for another four years. America, a relatively young nation, is an especially odd spot as it goes through growing pains—or the end of an era, depending on who you ask.

As polarization increases especially in a radicalized right, satisfaction with the nation’s democracy is reaching a record low. Fittingly, the different parties foresee different chaos scenarios. While on average a third of Americans are focused on economic turmoil, Republicans are more concerned than Democrats at 48% and 22%, respectively. Independents stand at 37%. Democrats are most concerned about climate change at 32%. That shifts to just 6% for Republicans and 12% for independents. While it has become a partisan issue, the earth is in crisis mode as the U.N. climate chief warns that we have two years to really mobilize before climate change worsens.

After years of inflation that outpaced wages, Americans are finally catching a break, but many are still feeling a residual sting. Cynicism pervades as many deal with oversize student loans, grapple with financial instability, and face an uphill battle to afford incredibly pricey life milestones like buying a house, having kids, or retiring. Despite relative gains—especially in the working-class fields as bolstered by union success—the true middle class has wavered in an age of high inequality.

“The economy’s performance and any economic disasters loom large in the public’s mind. Whether Americans notice and benefit from an improving economy will be an important piece to Biden’s success over the next seven months,” Sarah Feldman, senior data journalist, tells Fortune. “But, for right now, the president’s marks on the economy are weak, and he needs inflationary pressure to ease to get on better footing with the public here.”

Of course, the data shows that the U.S. economy is stronger than it may feel to many Americans, as economists often note. But people are still feeling down, reeling from a pandemic and continually looming recessions, so the Biden administration will absorb much of the blame. In general, the political party in power tends to take a hit during times of economic malaise. (That said, a new paper from left-leaning think tank Economic Policy Institute says economic performance tends to be stronger when Democrats are in power.)

Second on everyone’s list of potential disasters is another worldwide war, at 25% total and almost equal concern across all parities. Indeed, Americans are constantly hearing about socioeconomic turmoil, war, and genocide. It’s another point of contention for the election, as Biden’s inaction on Israel has disenchanted some of his past voters (especially younger ones).

One thing is for sure: America’s plate is full when it comes to all its burgeoning crises and brewing anxieties. And the next senior citizen to take the reins of the troubled nation will have to deal with how much people pay for groceries before we tackle the less-apparent problems like killer robots.

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