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美国通胀升至31年来最高,别指望拜登能解决

美国通胀升至31年来最高,别指望拜登能解决

Nicole Goodkind 2021年11月28日
汽油、食品、暖气和其他家庭必需品价格都在接近历史新高。

经济学家预测,目前通货膨胀率处于31年来最高水平,至少未来一年内仍将保持高位。

这意味着普通美国人原本就因成本上升经受打击的钱包将愈发痛苦。尽管劳动力紧缺,工资也在上涨,但过去一年中实际平均收入下降了1.6%。汽油、食品、暖气和其他家庭必需品价格接近历史新高。人们的储蓄都在贬值。

10月,通胀之风刮起(CPI同比上涨6.2%),对控制国会和白宫的民主党人来说风力尤其猛烈,因为很多美国人不可避免地认为他们应为当前经济困境负责。根据最近《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司一项调查,尽管拜登总统提出了1.2万亿美元的基础设施计划,而且超万亿美元社会支出协议通过的可能性越来越大,美国人当中只有39%赞成他处理经济的方式。

对于进入2022年中期选举季的民主党人来说,民调结果是黑暗的现实:近一半美国人和政治独立人士将通货膨胀归咎于拜登,而共和党人敏锐抓住了这一信息。

“看不到任何缓解的迹象。这是全国资金泛滥的直接结果,”上个月参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(肯塔基州共和党人)对记者表示。他指责拜登的基础设施法案导致转向通货膨胀。“我们根本不应该继续进行一场大规模且不计后果的税收和支出狂欢。”

社交媒体推特(Twitter)上的共和党人纷纷开始使用标签“感恩节税”,将感恩节昂贵大餐与拜登和其他民主党人联系起来。根据农场游说团的说法,今年假日餐费将增加14%。

“由于拜登总统失败的经济政策,感恩节晚餐费用将创历史新高。原本美国家庭应该过得更好。#感恩节税,”共和党众议员丹·梅瑟(宾夕法尼亚州共和党人)写道。

不过事实上,多数经济学家(左翼和右翼)都认为拜登的政策与通胀上升关系不大。穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)和惠誉评级公司(Fitch Ratings)的分析师表示,该法案对不断上涨的价格并无影响,原因在于2022年之前相关资金不会开始流入经济,而且法案推出时间长达十年加之收入增加,可抵消影响。

白宫指出价格上涨的原因是新冠导致的供应链障碍,以及疫情中企业整合行为。最近,拜登政府发出信号称可能会继续攻击,指责大公司在利润上升的同时将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。

本月拜登敦促联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)进一步调查石油天然气行业反竞争行为时,也传达了同样的观点。他认为正是该行业反竞争行为导致汽油价格上涨。

“过去几周,批发市场汽油价格下降了约10%,”周二下午拜登在一场新闻发布会上表示。新闻发布会目标是解决油价上涨问题,并推动白宫在经济方面的努力。“但是加油站的油价没有任何变化。换言之,天然气供应公司支付的费用更少,赚的钱更多,而且似乎并未向给加油站的消费者让利。”

然而,拜登在实际解决通胀现实问题方面几乎毫无作为。昨天拜登宣布,将提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席。

如今负责政治独立机构的鲍威尔可以提高短期利率以抵消物价上涨。新冠疫情期间还有特朗普执政时代,他降低利率并购买资产,将更多资金投入衰退的经济。经济学家认为,相关行动可能导致通胀,但鲍威尔称计划只是暂时,保持经济稳健运行的重要性更高,轻微通胀不必过分担心。

拜登利用行政权力缓解了港口的供应链问题,他会见大型零售商首席执行官,要求迅速上架商品以满足需求。他还宣布将从国家战略石油储备里划拨石油,但对天然气价格的影响可能微乎其微。“虽然没法一夜之间解决高油价问题,”周二拜登表示,“但随着时间推移,以后会发挥作用。”

地缘政治专家表示,可以取消前总统特朗普对中国进口商品征收的关税,但对全球关系的影响更大,超过对通胀的修正。

总之,拜登控制不了美联储,也没法强迫鲍威尔。至于通胀的选择方面,他能做的就是一面坚定地对大公司指手画脚,一面提醒美国人自己在经济其他领域的成就。

拜登表示:“即使考虑通货膨胀,美国经济规模也更大,美国人口袋里的钱也比疫情前多。美国是全世界唯一敢这么说的大国。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

经济学家预测,目前通货膨胀率处于31年来最高水平,至少未来一年内仍将保持高位。

这意味着普通美国人原本就因成本上升经受打击的钱包将愈发痛苦。尽管劳动力紧缺,工资也在上涨,但过去一年中实际平均收入下降了1.6%。汽油、食品、暖气和其他家庭必需品价格接近历史新高。人们的储蓄都在贬值。

10月,通胀之风刮起(CPI同比上涨6.2%),对控制国会和白宫的民主党人来说风力尤其猛烈,因为很多美国人不可避免地认为他们应为当前经济困境负责。根据最近《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司一项调查,尽管拜登总统提出了1.2万亿美元的基础设施计划,而且超万亿美元社会支出协议通过的可能性越来越大,美国人当中只有39%赞成他处理经济的方式。

对于进入2022年中期选举季的民主党人来说,民调结果是黑暗的现实:近一半美国人和政治独立人士将通货膨胀归咎于拜登,而共和党人敏锐抓住了这一信息。

“看不到任何缓解的迹象。这是全国资金泛滥的直接结果,”上个月参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(肯塔基州共和党人)对记者表示。他指责拜登的基础设施法案导致转向通货膨胀。“我们根本不应该继续进行一场大规模且不计后果的税收和支出狂欢。”

社交媒体推特(Twitter)上的共和党人纷纷开始使用标签“感恩节税”,将感恩节昂贵大餐与拜登和其他民主党人联系起来。根据农场游说团的说法,今年假日餐费将增加14%。

“由于拜登总统失败的经济政策,感恩节晚餐费用将创历史新高。原本美国家庭应该过得更好。#感恩节税,”共和党众议员丹·梅瑟(宾夕法尼亚州共和党人)写道。

不过事实上,多数经济学家(左翼和右翼)都认为拜登的政策与通胀上升关系不大。穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)和惠誉评级公司(Fitch Ratings)的分析师表示,该法案对不断上涨的价格并无影响,原因在于2022年之前相关资金不会开始流入经济,而且法案推出时间长达十年加之收入增加,可抵消影响。

白宫指出价格上涨的原因是新冠导致的供应链障碍,以及疫情中企业整合行为。最近,拜登政府发出信号称可能会继续攻击,指责大公司在利润上升的同时将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。

本月拜登敦促联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)进一步调查石油天然气行业反竞争行为时,也传达了同样的观点。他认为正是该行业反竞争行为导致汽油价格上涨。

“过去几周,批发市场汽油价格下降了约10%,”周二下午拜登在一场新闻发布会上表示。新闻发布会目标是解决油价上涨问题,并推动白宫在经济方面的努力。“但是加油站的油价没有任何变化。换言之,天然气供应公司支付的费用更少,赚的钱更多,而且似乎并未向给加油站的消费者让利。”

然而,拜登在实际解决通胀现实问题方面几乎毫无作为。昨天拜登宣布,将提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席。

如今负责政治独立机构的鲍威尔可以提高短期利率以抵消物价上涨。新冠疫情期间还有特朗普执政时代,他降低利率并购买资产,将更多资金投入衰退的经济。经济学家认为,相关行动可能导致通胀,但鲍威尔称计划只是暂时,保持经济稳健运行的重要性更高,轻微通胀不必过分担心。

拜登利用行政权力缓解了港口的供应链问题,他会见大型零售商首席执行官,要求迅速上架商品以满足需求。他还宣布将从国家战略石油储备里划拨石油,但对天然气价格的影响可能微乎其微。“虽然没法一夜之间解决高油价问题,”周二拜登表示,“但随着时间推移,以后会发挥作用。”

地缘政治专家表示,可以取消前总统特朗普对中国进口商品征收的关税,但对全球关系的影响更大,超过对通胀的修正。

总之,拜登控制不了美联储,也没法强迫鲍威尔。至于通胀的选择方面,他能做的就是一面坚定地对大公司指手画脚,一面提醒美国人自己在经济其他领域的成就。

拜登表示:“即使考虑通货膨胀,美国经济规模也更大,美国人口袋里的钱也比疫情前多。美国是全世界唯一敢这么说的大国。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Economists predict that inflation, now at a 31-year high, and will remain elevated for at least another year.

That means more pain in the pocketbook for average Americans, who've already taken a financial hit due to rising costs. Although labor is scarce and wages are rising, real average earnings have declined 1.6% over the past year. Prices for gas, food, heating, and other household essentials are nearing record highs. And any savings people have are declining in value.

These inflationary winds—blowing at a rate of 6.2% year-over-year in October — are particularly blustery for Democrats, who control Congress and The White House, and are inevitably blamed by many Americans for the current economic distress. Only 39% of Americans approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy, according to a recent Washington Post/ABC survey—that’s despite his $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and the increasingly likely passage of his trillion-plus dollar social spending deal.

The poll results signal a dark reality for Democrats as they enter the 2022 midterm election season: Nearly half of Americans overall and political independents blame Biden for inflation, and Republicans are grabbing onto that message.

"There's no relief in sight. It's a direct result of flooding the country with money," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), told reporters last month, blaming Biden’s infrastructure bill for the shift in inflation. "The last thing we need to do is pile on with another massive, reckless tax and spending spree."

Republicans on Twitter have started using the hashtag, #ThanksgivingTax, in an attempt to associate higher priced Thanksgiving meals with Biden and other Democrats. The holiday meal will cost an extra 14% this year, according to the farm lobby.

“Due to President Biden’s failed economic policies, the cost of Thanksgiving dinner will be at an all time high. American families deserve better. #ThanksgivingTax,” wrote Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Penn.)

But in reality, most economists (on the left and right) agree that Biden’s policies have little to do with rising inflation. Analysts at Moody's Analytics and Fitch Ratings say that the bill has no impact on the increasing prices because the money from it won't begin to flow into the economy until 2022, and due to its decade-long rollout and revenue-raising offsets.

The White House blames supply chain snags caused by COVID-19 and the consolidation of businesses during the pandemic for higher prices. Recently, the Biden administration has signaled that they might go on the offense and blame large companies for passing increased prices on to consumers even as their profits rise.

Biden indicated as much this month when he urged the Federal Trade Commission to further investigate any anti-competitiveness in the oil and gas industry, which he said was causing higher gasoline prices.

“The price of gasoline on the wholesale market has fallen by about 10% over the last few weeks,” said Biden on Tuesday afternoon at a press conference meant to address increasing prices while promoting the White House’s economic efforts. “But the price at the pump hasn’t budged a penny. In other words, gas supply companies are paying less and making a lot more and they do not seem to be passing that on to consumers at the pump.”

Still, when it comes to actually addressing the realities of inflation, there’s little Biden can actually do. The president announced yesterday that he would nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to helm the central bank for another term.

Powell, who is in charge of the politically independent agency, could raise short-term interest rates to offset higher prices. During the COVID pandemic, and the Trump era, he lowered rates and bought assets to push more money into the sinking economy. Economists argue those actions could have led to inflation, but Powell claims that the plan is only temporary and the need to keep the economy afloat outweighs any fear of slight inflation.

Biden has used his executive power to ease supply chain problems at ports and he's met with the CEOs of large retailers asking them to stock their shelves quickly to meet demand. He also announced today that he would release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the impact on gas prices will likely be minimal. “While our actions will not solve the problem of high gas prices overnight,” the president said Tuesday, “it will make a difference over time.”

He could lift tariffs created by President Trump on Chinese imports, but the implications on global relations would outweigh any fix to inflation, geopolitical experts say.

In any case, the president doesn’t control the Federal Reserve and can’t force Powell’s hand. As far as options go for inflation, a firm finger shaking at large corporations is about all he can do while reminding Americans of his other economic successes.

“Even accounting for inflation, our economy is bigger and Americans have more money in their pocket than they did before the pandemic. America is the only major economy in the world that can say that,” Biden said.

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