恐慌才是“万物短缺”恶性循环之源
两年来，全球供应链陷入混乱，而港口拥堵是主要原因。国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）和世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization）在上周均表示，供应链混乱问题预计仍然将会持续数月。无论是企业收入下降，还是人们购买圣诞节礼物无望等等，这一切问题都要归咎于供应链中断。
但据一些分析师称，“万物短缺”问题的原因可能不在于供应链中断本身，而是因为人们早就料到会发生这种情况。
标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的供应链分析师埃里克·奥克指出，随着“供应链危机”的言论愈演愈烈，企业为确保及时供货，开始超额订购原材料，下单时间也远早于往常，进而加剧了供应链中断问题。
奥克举例说，如果某公司80%确信能够获得足够的原材料来维持其工厂正常运转，可能就不会订购其所需的100%的原材料。但如果这家公司预计会收到80%的原材料，可能就会超额订购120%的原材料，这样至少可以确保收到96%的原材料。奥克在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示，“为确保工厂正常运转，制造商很可能会增加原材料订单量，”从而引发供应链中断的周期性效应。
他说，提早超额订购会引发牛鞭效应，因为一家公司增加了订单量，或者下单时间远早于往常，就会迫使其供应商也这样做。供应商的供应商也会增加其订单量，造成更多供应链中断，从而引发涓滴效应。
奥克说，市场本来就已经很紧张，消费者在看到有关供应链混乱的报道后出现恐慌性抢购，而其需求的小幅波动可能会导致某个月的订单量急剧增加，这只会让情况变得更糟，也就是所谓的“透明度问题。”
通货膨胀也会产生类似效应。企业担心今后原材料价格上涨，就会增加订单量，从而推高价格。“如果人人都认为通货膨胀会发生，它就很可能会发生。”奥克说。他说，通货膨胀和供应链都具有相同的自我实现性。
到目前为止，供应链拥堵仍然无法得到缓解。据彭博社（Bloomberg）报道，两年来，新冠肺炎疫情造成供需紧缩，全球77%的港口面临着异常漫长的周转期，停泊在美国港口和中国港口附近的许多船舶等待装卸货。
有人认为，准时制生产方式（一种保持最低工厂库存以节省空间和降低成本的企业战略）可能是问题的核心。不过奥克认为，在供应链危机中，如果要有赢家的话，就是那些能够未雨绸缪的企业。“如果企业未能事先规划，或者无法适应这种新的超长交付周期供应链环境，就可能会面临供应链拥堵问题。”他说。（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
两年来，全球供应链陷入混乱，而港口拥堵是主要原因。国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）和世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization）在上周均表示，供应链混乱问题预计仍然将会持续数月。无论是企业收入下降，还是人们购买圣诞节礼物无望等等，这一切问题都要归咎于供应链中断。
但据一些分析师称，“万物短缺”问题的原因可能不在于供应链中断本身，而是因为人们早就料到会发生这种情况。
标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的供应链分析师埃里克·奥克指出，随着“供应链危机”的言论愈演愈烈，企业为确保及时供货，开始超额订购原材料，下单时间也远早于往常，进而加剧了供应链中断问题。
奥克举例说，如果某公司80%确信能够获得足够的原材料来维持其工厂正常运转，可能就不会订购其所需的100%的原材料。但如果这家公司预计会收到80%的原材料，可能就会超额订购120%的原材料，这样至少可以确保收到96%的原材料。奥克在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示，“为确保工厂正常运转，制造商很可能会增加原材料订单量，”从而引发供应链中断的周期性效应。
他说，提早超额订购会引发牛鞭效应，因为一家公司增加了订单量，或者下单时间远早于往常，就会迫使其供应商也这样做。供应商的供应商也会增加其订单量，造成更多供应链中断，从而引发涓滴效应。
奥克说，市场本来就已经很紧张，消费者在看到有关供应链混乱的报道后出现恐慌性抢购，而其需求的小幅波动可能会导致某个月的订单量急剧增加，这只会让情况变得更糟，也就是所谓的“透明度问题。”
通货膨胀也会产生类似效应。企业担心今后原材料价格上涨，就会增加订单量，从而推高价格。“如果人人都认为通货膨胀会发生，它就很可能会发生。”奥克说。他说，通货膨胀和供应链都具有相同的自我实现性。
到目前为止，供应链拥堵仍然无法得到缓解。据彭博社（Bloomberg）报道，两年来，新冠肺炎疫情造成供需紧缩，全球77%的港口面临着异常漫长的周转期，停泊在美国港口和中国港口附近的许多船舶等待装卸货。
有人认为，准时制生产方式（一种保持最低工厂库存以节省空间和降低成本的企业战略）可能是问题的核心。不过奥克认为，在供应链危机中，如果要有赢家的话，就是那些能够未雨绸缪的企业。“如果企业未能事先规划，或者无法适应这种新的超长交付周期供应链环境，就可能会面临供应链拥堵问题。”他说。（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
After two years of mangled global supply chains, it is fair game to blame anything on port congestion. With the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization last week both noted they expect supply chain issues to drag on for several months, everything from poor company earnings to missing Christmas presents can be put down to supply chain disruptions.
But according to some analysts, the problem of the “everything shortage” may not be the supply chain disruptions themselves but everyone anticipating them.
As the rhetoric of a “supply chain crisis” ramps up, companies are over-ordering and placing orders earlier than usual to ensure goods keep flowing out the door, which causes further disruptions, notes Eric Oak, supply chain analyst for S&P Global Market Intelligence.
If a company is 80% sure it will get enough goods to keep its manufacturing facility open, it might not order 100% of what it needs, Oak says, as an example. But this company, which is expecting 80% of its goods to arrive, might instead over-order 120% of what they need, so at least 96% arrives. “The manufacturer is more likely to boost the raw material orders to make sure that their plant stays open,” creating a cyclical effect in supply chain disruptions, Oak tells Fortune.
Early over-ordering creates a bullwhip effect, he says, as one company increases its order volumes, or orders sooner than expected, making its suppliers do the same. Suppliers of suppliers will all increase their own volumes, creating a trickle-down effect of more disruption.
And in an already tight market, a small swing in consumer demand—which may come from panic-buying that arises after reading about mangled supply chains—may result in singular large order volumes one month, which just makes things worse, Oak says, calling it “a problem of transparency.”
Inflation has a similar role to play. As companies fear the prospect of prices rising in future, they also might be inclined to order more today, pushing prices still higher. “If everybody thinks inflation will happen, it’s likely to happen,” says Oak, who says both inflation and supply chains have the same self-fulfilling nature.
As of now supply chain congestion sees no end in sight. After two years of pandemic-related supply and demand constrictions, 77% of the world’s ports are experiencing abnormally long turnaround traffic, according to Bloomberg, with ships anchored off the coast of U.S. and Chinese ports waiting to be processed.
Some argue the focus on just-in-time manufacturing—a company strategy to maintain the bare minimum of stock in factories to save on space and costs—may be at the heart of the problem. And if there are any winners in the supply chain crisis, according to Oak, they will be the companies that thought ahead. “Companies that didn’t plan for, or adapt to this kind of new superlong lead time supply-chain environment might be left with goods on boats,” Oak says.
