亲身体验告诉我希腊也许永远无法复苏

    简而言之，欧洲忽视了改革的政治可行性。他们要求希腊立即开始提高税率并削减政府开支，这在希腊经济陷入衰退的路上又推它了一把。上届希腊政府已经开始实施一些改革，并让经济重新实现增长。但欧洲给希腊施加了太多限制，而且后者的增长速度也不够快。

    因此，欧洲让希腊现任政府得到了它真正想要的东西——一个把责任推给欧洲的借口。

    两年前，阿莱克斯•齐普拉斯曾造访布鲁金斯学会。我们深切体会到了他在政治上的精明，但围绕在他身边却是一群业余的、被意识形态左右的顾问。齐普拉斯当时告诉我们，欧洲和希腊需要对方的程度相当。我们和他一样，都认为紧缩措施本身不会带来经济增长。但我们也明确告诉他，希腊政府也不是光花钱就行，而是要发扬创新和创业精神。

    希腊这场大戏的最后一幕才刚刚开始。这部戏的剧情错综复杂，希腊政府和欧盟方面都存在多种力量和声音。他们仍有可能化腐朽为神奇。但就我个人而言，这是五年来我首次感到情况不乐观。（财富中文网）

    本文作者威廉•安索利斯是弗吉尼亚大学米勒中心首席执行官。1997-1999年他曾在美国白宫国家安全委员会担任国际经济事务主任。

    译者：Charlie

    In short, Europe has ignored the political viability of reform. By demanding immediate and unceasingly higher taxes and cuts in government spending, they have helped to send Greece into a depression. The last Greek government had begun to implement some reforms and return the country to economic growth. But Europe’s constraints were too heavy, and the growth was not fast enough.

    As a result, Europe has given the current government exactly what it wanted: an excuse to blame failure on the EU.

    Two years ago, we hosted Alexis Tsipras at Brookings. He struck us as politically astute, but surrounded by an amateurish and ideologically driven group of advisors.

    Tsipras, at the time, told us that Europe needed Greece as much as Greece needed Europe. We agreed with him that austerity would not by itself lead to growth. But we also made clear to him that neither would government spending alone – that Greece needed to unleash its innovative and entrepreneurial spirit.

    This is just the opening scene in the final act of this drama. It is a very complicated play — multiple forces and voices within both the Greek government and the EU. There is still a chance that they can pull a rabbit out of the hat. But for the first time in the last five years, I’m not optimistic.

    William Antholis is the CEO of the Miller Center at the University of Virginia. He served as Director of International Economic Affairs on the White House National Security Council from 1997 to 1999.