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4大迹象预示美国经济增长加速

4大迹象预示美国经济增长加速

Chris Matthews 2014-07-03
尽管上个季度美国的经济增长数据令人失望,但在人口结构、企业投资、政府层面以及就业市场等四个重要的方面仍然有一些值得乐观的积极迹象。

    4.无论怎么看,美国就业市场都在改善:评估美国就业市场的状况,必须面对现实。我们不能只看失业率(失业率正在快速下降),因为这个国家的人口老龄化以及经济衰退已导致太多人退出就业市场。另外,美国工资长时间滞涨,我们在考虑新增就业数量的同时也要考虑质量。美国经济产生的那些就业能提升平均工资吗?

    即便是其他反映就业市场状况的指标,也显示情况在好转。就业-人口比率在连续多年持平后,开始略有上升:

    4. Anyway you look at it, the jobs picture is improving: Evaluating the state of the labor market in America isn’t for the faint of heart. No longer can we just look at the unemployment rate (which is falling fast), as the aging of the country’s population and the recession have caused so many workers to drop out of the labor force altogether. At the same time, Americans have been dealing with stagnant wages for so long that we must also consider the quality along with the quantity of new jobs. Is the American economy generating the kind of jobs that will increase average wages?

    Even when looking at alternative gauges of job market strength, things are getting better. The employment-population ratio is ticking upwards after staying flat for years:

    上图显示的是2010年1月至2014年1月美国就业人口数量与人口总数之比的走势。

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