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美联储考虑曲线退出经济刺激行动

美联储考虑曲线退出经济刺激行动

Stephen Gandel 2013年09月27日
美联储正在考虑采用华尔街方式来退出量化宽松政策:美联储把美国国债作为担保品抵押给银行,银行为美联储提供隔夜资金,获得收益,美联储借此回笼市场上流通的货币,推高利率。但业内人士担心,这种方式可能导致影子银行体系膨胀。

    另外一个担忧是,美联储利用回购市场可能形成挤出效应,影响到通用电气(General Electric)和其他依赖货币市场融资的公司。为了与美联储争夺资金,大公司或许不得不为自己的短期贷款支付更高的利率。当然,这正是美联储的目的。美联储正在试图提高利率。但随着美联储借入这么庞大的资金,大公司贷款利率的快速增长可能超出预期。结果将市场从一个人为矫正

    “美联储冲进回购市场,希望能修复量化宽松产生的问题。结果是在越来越多的市场中,推动价格的是美联储,而并不是投资者。我们将丧失正常的市场价格发现体系,”市场策略师詹姆斯•比安科说。“美联储官员会说,这些担忧用错了地方,但他们总是这么说。”

    当然,美联储延迟逐步退出计划意味着我们可能要等待更长的时间,才能看到美联储真正推高利率。因此,现在还没有什么好担心的。但如果美联储迟迟不停止刺激措施,等待的时间越长,将来就越有可能我们最终还是得担心这个问题。(财富中文网)

    Another concern is that the Fed's use of the repo market might crowd out General Electric (GE) and other large companies that rely on money market funds for borrowing. Big corporations might have to pay a higher interest rate for their short-term loans to compete with the Fed. That, of course, is the point. The Fed is trying to raise interest rates. But with the Fed borrowing so much, borrowing rates for big companies could shoot up more than expected. The result is a market that's jumping from one artificial correction to another.

    "The Fed is jumping into the repo market to fix problems that were caused by quantitative easing. What you get is more and more markets where prices are not being set by investors but by the Fed. We are losing the market's normal price discovery system," says market strategist James Bianco. "Fed officials will say these concerns are misplaced, but they always say that."

    Of course, the fact that the Fed put off tapering means that it will be longer until the Fed actually raises interest rates. So there is nothing to worry about, yet. But the longer Fed waits before calling off its stimulus efforts, the more likely it is that we will have to worry about it someday.

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