欧洲将拉响新的警报

    要在重点地区计划（包括为货币联盟补充更强大的财政和银行联盟以及更紧密的政治一体化）上获得进展、确保几个具体成员国形成更好的宏观经济/结构政策组合，相关方面需要重新做出努力。

    我们觉得欧洲委员会的预测仍然过于乐观，意味着采取行动的紧迫性更大。例如，太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）预计欧元区经济今年可能萎缩1-1.5%，而不是欧洲委员会预测的仅萎缩0.6%。

    重要的是，政界应该利用当前欧洲央行的桥梁作用，现在就采取行动，让公民对经济的显著好转抱有更大希望。否则，政策性挑战将与日俱增，欧元区将面临越来越多的涉及经济、金融、政治和社会因素的破坏性恶性循环。

    如果欧洲的政治家们要等到出现更深的危机才去利用欧洲央行提供的宝贵机会，那将是一个极大的耻辱，而且会是悲剧性的耻辱。

    穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安是太平洋投资管理公司首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。他还是美国全球发展署的负责人。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    A renewed effort is needed to make progress on key regional initiatives (including supplementing monetary union with greater fiscal and banking union and closer political integration) and in ensuring a better macro-economic/structural policy mix in several individual countries.

    This urgent call for action is amplified by what we feel are still overly optimistic EC projections. For example, PIMCO projects the eurozone could contract by 1 – 1.5% this year rather than the EC's 0.6%.

    It is essential that politicians take advantage of the current ECB bridge, acting now to provide citizens with greater hope of a significant turnaround. Absent that, policy challenges will mount, and the eurozone will face a growing number of disruptive feedback loops involving economic, financial, political and social factors.

    It would be a great shame – indeed tragic – if European politicians were to wait for a deeper crisis in order to make use of the valuable opportunity afforded to them by the ECB.

    Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. He also heads the U.S. global development council.