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中国需求放缓打压国际大宗商品价格

Charles P. Wallace 2011年12月26日

虽然亚洲经济放缓可能损及全球经济增长,但公司财务主管们和消费者肯定有一件事情可以聊以慰藉,那就是主要大宗商品价格下跌。

    多伦多市场研究机构CIBC World markets的大宗商品分析师彼得•布坎南说:“中国占全球铜需求超过40%,其他基础金属的需求占比也相当高。我认为未来一两年下行风险可能高于上行风险。”

    布坎南称,金属价格下跌“肯定会直接改善很多公司的盈利状况”。他说,中国是这个等式中重要的组成部分,但欧洲经济状况也同样重要。

    苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)驻伦敦的大宗商品分析师尼高斯•卡瓦利斯认为,金属抛盘更多是投机性卖盘,而不是供求基本面的问题。

    他说,电缆电线等铜下游制造商今年早些时候还在苦苦挣扎,勉强度日。卡瓦利斯说:“毫无疑问,铜密集型行业现在的状况已经要好很多了。”

    但他警告称,随着供应状况趋紧,2012年铜价可能会出现反弹。他说:“我们预计中国经济将软着陆。”

    "China accounts for over 40% of global copper demand and a substantial proportion of other base metals as well," says Peter Buchanan, a commodities analyst at CIBC World markets in Toronto. "In the next year or two I think there is probably more downside risk than upside."

    Buchanan notes that a fall in metals prices "would certainly help the earnings of a large number of companies directly." China is an important part of the equation, but so is what happens in the European economy, Buchanan says.

    Nikos Kavalis, a commodity analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, says he believes the selloff in metals was more about speculators selling commodities rather than a fundamental issue of supply and demand.

    He says that manufacturers that use copper such as cable and wire makers were struggling to survive earlier in the year. 'Without a doubt, copper-intensive industries have it much better right now," Kavalis says.

    He warns, however, that he is expecting a rebound in copper prices in 2012 as the supply situation tightens. "We're expecting a soft landing in China," he says.

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