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投资理财

最佳投资策略玩转新兴市场

Scott Cendrowski 2011年11月18日

通过跨国公司投资?还是本土公司?看看市场,可能就不难作出选择了。

    第二点是,新兴市场的波动性较前些年大大减弱。股票的波动性大致可看贝塔值,即相对于大盘的表现指标。如果股市涨了10%,股票涨了20%,那么该股的贝塔值就是2。历史数据显示,新兴市场指数的贝塔值是标普500指数的1.8倍。而今随着发展中市场的业务日渐成熟、政府环境改善以及更成熟的投资者进入市场,这一比率已经降至1.2 倍。

    第三,发展中市场的股息增速也远高于发达市场。过去10年,摩根士丹利新兴市场指数的股息年增幅为15%,大大高于标普500指数5%的股息年增幅。如今,这两个数据分别为3.5%和2.1%。过去3年,发展中市场的股息都保持了正增长,而标普500指数的股息却减少了5%。

    普通投资者可以有几种方式来尝试投资新兴市场。交易所交易基金(Exchange-traded funds)提供了广泛的股票组合,收取的管理费却只是共同基金的一个零头。最热门的ETF是先锋基金公司(Vanguard)的摩根士丹利新兴市场ETF(MSCI Emerging Markets ETF),该基金持有韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和中国互联网公司腾讯(Tencent)等大盘股,管理费费率仅为0.22%。PowerShares FTSE RAFI新兴市场投资组合(The PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio)与先锋基金公司的基金相似,但它是根据公司账面价值和现金流来决定新兴市场公司的权重,而不是公司的市值。这个策略能够避免持有过多泡沫型股票。该投资组合的管理费费率为0.85%。赫德斯旗下的Emerging Global Advisors公司管理着一支专注于新兴市场消费支出的ETF,持有包括墨西哥和印度等国龙头企业在内的30家公司。该ETF的管理费费率0.85%。

    如今,是否应该持有新兴市场的股票已毫无争议,因为新兴市场的高增长无人可及。但怎样投资才能充分受益于新兴市场的增长,相关争论可能才刚刚开始升温。

    The second point is that emerging markets are much less volatile than they have been in recent history. A stock's volatility is roughly approximated by its beta, a calculation of its relation to the broader market. If the market rises by 10%, and a stock rises by 20%, it's said to have a beta of 2. Emerging market indexes historically recorded a beta of roughly 1.8 times that of the S&P 500. Today it has fallen to 1.2 as developing businesses mature, governments improve, and more sophisticated investors enter markets.

    Third, skyrocketing dividend growth rates in the developing world aren't even close to those in developed markets. Over the past 10 years, the MSCI Emerging Market index has grown dividends by 15% annually compared to 5% in the S&P 500. It now yields 3.5% vs. the S&P's 2.1%. And in the past three years dividend growth in developing markets has stayed positive as the S&P 500's dividend payment has dropped by 5%.

    There are a couple ways regular investors can play it. Exchange-traded funds offer broad baskets of stocks and charge a management fee that's often just a fraction of those at mutual funds. The most popular ETF is Vanguard's MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which holds large cap stocks such as Samsung Electronics of South Korea and China-based Tencent. It charges a fee of 0.22%. The PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio is similar to Vanguard's fund, except it weighs emerging market companies according to their book value and cash flow instead of market capitalization. That protects against holding too many bubble-type stocks. It charges 0.85%. Holderith's firm, Emerging Global Advisors, runs an ETF called focused on emerging market consumer spending which includes 30 leading companies in countries like Mexico and India. It charges 0.85%.

    For now, the argument whether to own emerging markets seems over: they offer growth found nowhere else. The fight over the best way to tap into it might just be heating up.

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