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5大楼市泡沫,中国榜上有名

Nin-Hai Tseng
2013-11-26

如今的楼市看起来有泡沫,有些人担忧,它们可能让全球经济陷入困境。中国、澳大利亚、巴西、新西兰以及美国等5个国家的楼市最值得警惕。

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    巴西

    巴西总统或许不认为房价已进入泡沫市场范畴,但诺贝尔奖获得者、经济学家罗伯特•希勒已发出警告称,麻烦已经开始露头。

    在巴西最大的城市圣保罗和里约热内卢,房价自1月份以来已分别上涨了188%和230%。这是房租增长率的两倍。而且,虽然巴西按揭贷款市场相对较新,但按揭贷款债务占家庭可支配收入的比例已攀升至创纪录的15%。

    房价在5年内已翻番——这种情况从未在美国出现过,曾成功预见美国房价危机的耶鲁大学(Yale University)教授希勒表示。8月31日在巴西举行的一项活动中,他说:“我事实上并不知道巴西(楼市)是不是泡沫,但我怀疑是。或许我索性就该这么说,这样就能帮助这个市场降温的话。”

    不过,巴西楼市短期内可能不会降温。巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫并不认同这些警告,还调整了政策鼓励买房,比如提高人们可以购房的价格限制。

    Brazil

    Brazil's president may not think home prices have entered bubble market territory, but Noble Prize winning economist Robert Shiller has warned trouble is on the horizon.

    In Brazil's biggest cities, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, home prices have risen 188% and 230%, respectively, since January. That's twice as fast as the growth in rent. And while the country's mortgage market is relatively new, mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable household income has climbed to a record 15%.

    Home prices have doubled in five years -- something that virtually never happened in the U.S., says Shiller, a professor at Yale University who forecast the U.S. housing crisis. At an event in Brazil, on Aug. 31, he said: "I actually don't know it's a bubble in Brazil, but I suspect it is and, maybe if I can just say that, it would help cool the fervor."

    That's unlikely to happen any time soon, however. Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff has dismissed warnings and has instead changed policies to encourage demand, such as raising the price limit of houses people can buy.

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