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中国银行业乱局是个政治问题

中国银行业乱局是个政治问题

裴敏欣 2013-07-01
中国人民银行最近特意压缩银行信贷以整治影子银行的说法从政治角度来看站不住脚。只有中央政治局才有可能做出这样的决定。但中共中央第三次全体会议召开在即,届时将宣布最重要的经济措施。在此之前,中国不可能冒着影响经济形势、打乱自身部署的风险对影子银行采取大胆行动。

    当然,决策过程不透明,媒体受到限制,决策者不在乎是否需要就自己的意图和市场参与者进行沟通,这都使得在中国做出正确选择成为一个难题。为避免今后犯错,分析师应当更关注政治因素而不是经济,这样做对他们有益。就中国金融体系这次的震荡而言,央行特意压缩信贷以整治影子银行的说法从政治角度来看几乎没有任何道理可言。只有中央政治局才有可能做出这样的决定。但在目前这样的微妙时刻,中央政治局不太可能授权采取这样的行动。

    中共中央第三次全体会议将在今年秋天召开,会上将宣布最重要的经济措施。中央领导人在夏季到来之前冒着影响经济并打乱自身部署的风险对影子银行采取大胆行动,这是件不能想象的事情。

    对影子银行进行实质性改革前,中国领导人首先需要在最高层达成共识,消除来自利益集团的阻力,并针对改革产生的影响制定完善的应对计划。所有这些都需要时间和激烈的讨价还价。考虑到中国人民银行接到了迅速撤退的命令,最高领导层目前显然还没有这样的计划。

    不过,这并不意味着中国政府可以长期推迟化解银行系统中大量风险的工作。如果说最近中国金融业陷入困境有什么作用的话,那就是它应该让中国最高领导人意识到,今年秋天的三中全会上,他们必须就金融去杠杆化拿出更完善的方案。否则,他们几乎必然会看到中国信贷泡沫的破裂,与之相比,上周的情况就会显得微不足道。(财富中文网)

    裴敏欣是美国克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院“汤姆和马戈特•普里茨克”72级政治学教授以及德国马歇尔基金会非常驻高级研究员。

    译者:Charlie

    Granted, the opacity of the decision-making process, the lack of a free press, and the insensitivity of policy-makers to the need to communicate their intentions to market participants all contribute to the difficulty in making the right call on China. To avoid making mistakes in the future, analysts should do themselves a favor by focusing more on political factors than on economics. In the case of the recent upheaval in China's financial system, the idea that the squeeze was deliberately engineered by the PBOC to crack down on the shadow banking system makes little political sense. Only the Politburo Standing Committee, the ruling Communist Party's most powerful body, could have made such a decision. But the Politburo would not likely authorize such a move at this delicate moment.

    The Communist Party is scheduled to hold its third central committee plenum in the fall, when its most important economic initiatives will be unveiled. It is inconceivable that the party's leadership would risk economic turmoil and disrupt its plans with a bold move on the shadow banking system before they head to the beach for the summer.

    To implement any kind of meaningful reform to the shadow banking system, Chinese leadership will first have to reach a consensus at the top, overcome resistance from interest groups, and devise complex plans to address the consequences of reform. All this takes time and fierce bargaining. Based on the quick retreat sounded by the PBOC, it is quite obvious that the top leadership has no such plans in place for now.

    However, this does not mean that Beijing can delay dealing with the massive risks in the banking system for very long. If anything, the recent bloodbath in the Chinese financial sector should prompt China's top leaders that they must have a more comprehensive plan for financial deleveraging when they meet in the fall. Otherwise, they are almost certain to face a bursting of China's credit bubble that will make last week's turmoil look insignificant.

    Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States

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