中国经济体制改革还没到庆祝的时候

    不过，最近高层领导支持改革的言论确实能让我们在一定程度上预见今年秋季围绕经济转型的政治博弈。发改委在中国政治体系中最多只是中等重量级选手，在政策上没有最终的决定权。上周发改委发布这份文件之所以未能鼓舞中国金融市场投资者，或许原因就在这里。

    对于商界而言，需要注意的标志性事件是定于在秋季举行的中国共产党第十八届中央委员会第三次全体会议。按照惯例，新的领导层将会在这次重要的会议上公布综合的经济改革方案，也就是比发改委文件更为详尽的经济改革蓝图，它将反映出最高领导层的一致意见。

    过去，新的领导班子往往会成立专门工作组制定具体政策措施。有传闻称，几个跨部门的工作组确实在忙着制定具体的改革建议，以供高层在夏季审议。

    鉴于地方政府、官僚和国有企业所代表的政治势力团体反对真正意义上的改革，任何寻求削弱它们特权的计划都将遭遇巨大阻力。好消息是，新一届中国领导人很清楚他们的政治命运将取决于他们推进必要改革和保增长的能力。坏消息是，他们本身也是这些利益集团的代表，在框定中国未来经济发展进程上不可能毫无束缚。

    然而，我们应该保持希望，中国国家主席习近平和总理李克强将在秋季拿出雄心勃勃的可信改革方案，证明怀疑论者想错了。但是现在还没到开香槟的时候。（财富中文网）

    作者系克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院72级“汤姆和玛格特•普利兹克”政治学教授，兼美国德国马歇尔基金会非常驻高级成员。

    译者：默默

    Skepticism aside, the latest pro-reform rhetoric does provide us with a limited preview of the real political battle over economic restructuring that will be fought in Beijing this fall. Inside the Chinese political hierarchy, the NDRC is, at best, a medium-size player. It does not have the last word on policy. That is perhaps why the release of the NDRC reform directive failed to excite Chinese financial markets last week.

    For the business community, the signal event to watch is the Communist Party Central Committee's third plenum scheduled for the fall. According to tradition, the new leadership will likely unveil its comprehensive economic program at this important gathering. The blueprint, far more detailed than the NDRC directive, will reflect the consensus of the party leadership. It will be endorsed by the Central Committee and will most likely be introduced with all seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee in attendance. Only this ritual will convey the seriousness and commitment of the top leadership to painful but necessary reforms.

    In the past, the new leadership would set up task forces to formulate detailed policies. The word on the street in Beijing is that several inter-agency groups are indeed busy working to develop specific reform proposals that will be considered by the top leaders in the summer.

    Given the opposition to genuine reform from politically powerful groups, such as local governments, the bureaucracy, and the SOEs, any effort to reduce their privileges will meet strong resistance. The good news is that new Chinese leaders are aware that their own political fortune depends on their ability to deliver the necessary reforms and maintain growth. The bad news is that they are representatives of these interest groups and will unlikely enjoy a free hand in setting China's future economic course.

    We should remain hopeful that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang will prove the skeptics wrong with a bold and credible reform program in the fall. But we should hold off on the champagne for now.

    Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.