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大数据:预知未来的高科技“水晶球”

大数据:预知未来的高科技“水晶球”

Anne Fisher 2013-04-19
几年前,惠普一些部门离职率高达20%,受此触动,惠普决定预测全球33万名员工中谁最有可能辞职。分析师团队从薪酬水平、加薪情况、升迁情况等海量数据入手,搭建了一个离职风险评分系统,成功帮助降低了离职率。大数据的魔力可见一斑。行业专家称,如果一个机构从来不用这种方式充分利用自己的数据,那就和一个人有过目不忘的本事却从来不动脑筋无异。

    迄今为止,这套模型似乎确实有助于降低离职率,但西格尔表示,“一些惠普的忠诚员工肯定会由于这种离职风险评分而感到不安”,他继而补充道,这类工具代表了“一种全新的强大的人力资源数据”。由于这种数据是高度推测性的,它既是“洞察也是侵犯”,要看经理们如何运用了。

    尽管自己就是个大数据专家,但西格尔也和一些抗议塔吉特公司做法的权威人士一样,对这种做法表示担忧。他将预测分析称为是“双刃剑的工具”,并相信公众对隐私权遭侵犯的担忧不应被忽视。

    他在书中写道:“对话机制非常重要,但网站常常采用‘请查看并同意我们的隐私政策,详细文字太长而您又太忙,因此无法读完’这样的小把戏,这不能算是对话。企业和消费者的沟通很欠缺。双方要达成共识才是当今社会面临的全新重大挑战。这方面我们还有很长的路要走。”(财富中文网)

    译者:清远

    So far, the model seems to be helping to reduce turnover, but "some devoted HP workers are bound to be uncomfortable that their Flight Risk score exists," Siegel notes, adding that such tools represent "a whole new breed of powerful human resources data," which, since it's highly speculative, is either "insight or intrusion," depending on how managers use it.

    Despite his status as a Big Data guru, Siegel echoes some of the same concerns as the pundits who squawked about Target. Calling predictive analytics "a tool that can serve both good and evil," he believes that widespread worries about privacy should not be dismissed.

    "Dialogue is critical, and 'check here to agree to our lengthy privacy policy that you are too busy to read' does not count as dialogue," he writes. "Organizations and consumers are not speaking the same language. Striking a balance, together, is society's big new challenge. We have a long way to go."

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