摩根士丹利业绩飘红要谢低利率

    低利率和公司贷款等需求上升推动摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）2012年第四季度的业绩好于预期。

    经过一项债务会计调整后，摩根士丹利持续经营业务收益近9亿美元，合每股0.45美元，显著高于分析师们此前预期的0.27美元。收益数据较上年同期的亏损近4亿美元也大为改观。剔除债务调整，公司营收也好于预期，达到了75亿美元。

    2012全年，经上述会计调整后，这家投资银行的持续经营业务收入为30亿美元，较上一年的略微亏损大幅改观。投资者受到业绩的鼓舞，当日开盘后不久，摩根士丹利的股价便上涨近6%。

    在此之前，美国其他大银行公布的业绩也大多积极。富国银行（Wells Fargo）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、美国银行（Bank of America）公布的2012年最后三个月的业绩都好于预期。迎来新任CEO、最近宣布将裁员11,000人的花旗集团（Citigroup）是唯一的一家季度业绩不及预期的大银行。

    华尔街总体交易环境的改善给摩根士丹利带来了福音。但它最大的业绩增长动力还是来自于希望利用低利率、扩大融资的公司等。债券承销费用第四季度同比上涨 了85%。总体上，销售和交易收入上涨了近50%。摩根士丹利债券和商品业务的大幅改善也是一个重要因素。这块业务此前一直低迷，情况直到最近才发生改变。

    不过，业绩报告同时也显示，在金融危机后时代的华尔街，这家公司仍然没有完全走出困境。摩根士丹利的权益回报率（一个重要的盈利能力指标）仅为3.2%。这个数字比竞争对手高盛可差远了。高盛上周三公布了业绩，它的权益回报率已回升至11%。

    而且，摩根士丹利有近1/3的营收来自于所谓的自营交易。将来这些收入可能会部分或全部消失。新法规拟禁止摩根士丹利和其他银行将自有资金用于高风险押注。但相关法规尚未完全敲定，至少一年内应该还不会生效。另外，最近开始回升的利率可能终结债券发行给摩根士丹利带来的增长。

    Low interest rates and an increased desire by corporations and others to borrow powered Morgan Stanley to better-than-expected earnings in the last quarter of 2012.

    Morgan Stanley earned nearly $900 million, or $0.45 a share, from continuing operations and after an accounting adjustment for its debt. That was much better than the $0.27 a share analysts expected. Earnings were also up compared to a year ago, when the company lost nearly $400 million. Revenue, excluding the adjustment for its debt, was also better than expected at $7.5 billion.

    For all of 2012, the investment bank earned just over $3 billion from continuing operations and after the adjustment. That was up from a slight loss a year ago. Investors cheered the results. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) were up nearly 6% shortly after the market opened.

    Morgan Stanley's earnings results follow a string of mostly positive reports from other large banks. Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) all reported better than expected earnings for the last three months of 2012. Citigroup (C), which has a new CEO and recently announced that it would cut 11,000 employees, was the only bank to disappoint for the quarter.

    Morgan Stanley benefited from a better environment for deals on Wall Street in general. But it got its biggest boost from corporations and others looking to take advantage of low-interest rates. Bond underwriting fees rose 85% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year ago. Overall, sales and trading revenue was up nearly 50%. That, too, was propelled by a large improvement in Morgan's bond and commodities business, which had struggled until recently.

    Still, the report showed signs that the firm continued to struggle in the new, post-financial-crisis Wall Street. Morgan Stanley's return on equity, a key measure of profitability, was a measly 3.2%. That was much worse than rival Goldman Sachs (GS), which reported earnings on Wednesday. Goldman's ROE rebounded to 11%.

    What's more, nearly a third of Morgan Stanley's revenue came from so-called principal transactions. Some or all of that revenue might be going away. New regulations seek to ban Morgan Stanley and other banks from making risky bets with their own money. The regulations aren't finalized, though, and don't go into effect for at least another year. Also, interest rates, which have been rising recently, might put an end to the debt issuance boosting Morgan Stanley.