封杀华为可能引发中美贸易战

    德阿凡尼认为，在不对外公布的情况下，五年内取消对美国科技产品的进口，或至少部分产品，将是中国可能采取的方式之一。另外一种方式，则是提高美国科技业赖以生存的中国造集成电路的价格。令人好奇的是，美国科技界对此次美国国会报告竟然保持沉默。数个行业贸易团体要么拒绝对报告进行评论，要么拒绝接受采访。德阿凡尼认为，为华为和中兴辩护可能会让美国科技公司留下不爱国的负面形象。与此同时，反对华为和中兴又会激怒他们的中国供应商、合伙人和客户。他补充道：“他们现在最保险的做法就是保持沉默，但在幕后，却要为保住供应商而四处游说。”

    实际上，由于两国之间的相互依赖性，目前的形势非常复杂。完全中断贸易几乎不太可能。中国需要美国的技术，保持其基础设施和工厂继续运转。与此同时，美国的科技制造商则依赖中国生产的组件。两国之间不可能做到泾渭分明，一款产品的原产地通常只限于语义学上的概念。比如，苹果公司（Apple）的iPhone和iPad大部分都是在中国组装。这种相互协作、彼此受益的情况同样存在于美国的电信设备制造商。但美国国会的调查却对这种联系的安全风险视而不见。

    加州大学洛杉矶分校的唐教授称，是政治导致了形势的进一步激化。中美两国都处于选择下一任领导人的关键时刻。两国的政治派别都在利用贸易摩擦来争取民众支持。唐说：“目前的时机有点尴尬。”他解释道，未来的贸易谈判肯定会提到这个话题。但在新任领导人上台之前，中国方面肯定不会采取明确的措施。届时，中国新任领导人肯定会说“这是美国反对中国的又一个阴谋，我们必须采取行动。”

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Eliminating U.S. tech imports in five years, or at least some of them -- without ever publicly announcing such a plan -- is one way, D'Aveni said. Another is to raise the price for Chinese-made integrated circuits, on which the U.S. technology industry depends. Curiously silent on the report is the U.S. technology industry. Several industry trade groups declined to comment or failed to respond to messages seeking an interview.

    Defending Huawei and ZTE risks branding U.S. tech companies as unpatriotic, D'Aveni said. Meanwhile, siding against them would antagonize their Chinese suppliers, partners and customers. "Their best move is to stay silent, but behind the scenes, lobby for supplies," he added.

    Indeed, the situation is complicated by the interdependence of both nations. Cutting off trade is nearly impossible. China needs U.S. technology to keep its infrastructure and factories operating. Meanwhile, U.S. tech manufacturers depend on Chinese components. The lines are so blurry that a product's origin is often a matter of semantics. Apple's (AAPL) iPhones and iPads, for example, are largely assembled in China. Similar cross-pollination is the norm for U.S. telecommunications equipment makers. Congressional investigators, however, did not look at any security risks created by such ties.

    U.C.L.A. professor Tang said that politics are helping to inflame the situation. China and the U.S. are in the process of selecting new presidents. Political forces from both countries are using the trade disagreement to drum up support. "The timing is a bit awkward," Tang said. The topic will undoubtedly come up in future trade negotiations, he explained. But there won't be any definitive move from China until it has a new leader, who will inevitably "say there's a conspiracy -- that the U.S. is against China -- and we need to do x, y and z."