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派息有利增加GDP

派息有利增加GDP

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-04-09
如果美国企业界不想把庞大的现金储备用于招募更多员工,他们应该考虑增加派息。增加派息对美国个人收支的影响可能超乎想象。

    这当然有助于改变历来对现金使用持谨慎态度的硅谷高管们的心态。正如已故的苹果公司首席执行官史蒂夫•乔布斯拒绝派息一样,科技公司宁愿将现金留着用于可能的收购和其他投资。从某种角度而言,增加派息事实上说明公司可能对未来发展缺乏足够的规划。但在像今天这样的经济环境中,此类说法已经不再那么有说服力了,因为当前利率正处于历史低点,现金储备不太可能给公司带来太多的回报,但却仍在不断增长。

    说句公道话,美国企业界已经开始不那么把钱袋子攥得紧紧的了。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)上周二报告,今年前三个月,净股息同比增长了27.6%,达到242亿美元。第一季度有677家公司提高了派息,较2011年同期的510家公司增长了32%。

    “第一季度股息情况非常不错,实际现金派息增长超过11%,期货走势预示股息率将达到历史新高,不管是否将苹果计算在内,”S&P Indices的高级指数分析师霍华德•希尔弗布拉特在一份声明中称。

    当然,他补充道,派息率仍处于历史低位。股息占净利润比率的历史平均值为52%,目前仍低于30%,接近低点。

    今年股息走向如何仍有待观察,但迄今为止,开局不错。或许随后,消费者支出就会出现小幅增长。

    译者:早稻米

    This certainly helps build the case for changing the mentality of Silicon Valley, where leadership has historically been cautious with their cash. And like the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who resisted giving dividends, tech companies would rather save cash for possible acquisitions and other investments. In a way, raising dividends might actually signal companies aren't planning enough for future growth. Such arguments become less convincing during economic environments like today's, since cash reserves keep rising and aren't likely returning much for companies at a time when interest rates are at record lows.

    To be fair, companies have started relaxing their purse strings. During the first three months this year, net dividend increased by 27.6% to $24.2 billion over the same period during the previous year, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. There were 677 dividend increases during the first quarter, a 32% rise compared with the 510 increases during the same period in 2011.

    "Dividends had another great quarter, with actual cash payments increasing over 11% and the forward indicated dividend rate reaching a new all-time high, with or without Apple," said Howard Silverblatt, S&P Indices' senior index analyst in a statement.

    To be sure, he adds, payout rates remain historically low. The percentage of net income paid out in dividends, which historically averages 52%, remains near its lows at under 30%.

    It remains to be seen where dividends go this year, but thus far they're off to a good start. Perhaps a small boost in consumer spending will come next.

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