俄美贸易正常化的最大赢家

    这股推动力量背后不乏一些大公司，比如通用电气（General Electric）、迪尔（Deere）和波音（Boeing）。通用电气尤其积极，声称如果两国贸易关系恢复正常化，通用电气的喷气式飞机引擎关税将从20%降至5%。它将给通用电气的利润率带来可观的提升，并拓宽一线产品在俄罗斯市场的销售空间。

    如果俄罗斯无法将禁止某些食品和汽车的进口，美国农业和汽车行业的公司也会受益。这对于ConAgra、ADM等美国大型农产品加工企业以及福特（Ford）、通用汽车（GM）和克莱斯勒（Chrysler）等汽车生产商无疑是一大利好。

    华尔街势必也将受益于所有这些在俄罗斯进行的新投资。一旦俄罗斯被视为一个可靠的资本投资地，机构投资者将会要求增加在俄罗斯的投资敞口，导致大量股权和债务资本流入俄罗斯市场，而所有这些都会给华尔街银行家们带来丰厚的费用性收入。

    另一方面，目前将伦敦作为营运基地的俄罗斯大公司可能也会将某些运营转移到纽约。由于投资者构成关系，目前大多数俄罗斯大公司、甚至是准国有公司都选择在伦敦、甚至是香港挂牌上市，而不是在莫斯科。随着其投资者构成中西半球投资者的比例上升，在流动性良好的纽约上市将变得更有意义。纽约证交所（NYSE）一直在争取俄罗斯公司——两国贸易关系的全面正常化很可能加速这个新出现的进程。

    有些俄罗斯公司可能会将运营移至华尔街，与此同时，美国银行也可能在莫斯科找到新的商机。世贸条例首次允许纯外资银行在俄罗斯开设业务。唯一的限制是，整个银行业的50%仍须由俄罗斯人掌控。

    俄美贸易关系全面正常化的好处真真切切，但要看到所有这些变成现实，仍然需要等待数年的时间。由于担心可能冲击国内某些行业，俄罗斯将花七年的时间逐步降低关税，而且不会完全取消关税。履行入世承诺后，俄罗斯平均进口关税预计将从目前的10%下降到7.8%。俄罗斯同意自入世之日起下调33%的商品关税，两年后再下调25%。

    部分产业的过渡期将更为漫长。汽车和航空产业的关税将在7年内下调，其中汽车产业的关税将从9.5%降至7.3%。部分农产品有8年的过渡期，农产品平均关税将从13.2%降至10.8%。另外，新协议允许外资首次进入俄罗斯保险业，但这要等到俄罗斯入世九年之后。

    据部分民主党参议员称，美国参议院关于俄罗斯贸易的讨论预计还将持续几周，相关议案可能会在未来几个月内获得通过。美国和俄罗斯政界都对新的开放程度以及可能产生的成果持谨慎乐观的态度。但它给两国带来的好处毋庸置疑。唯一的不确定性因素是俄罗斯是否会遵守世贸规定。只有时间能告诉我们答案。

    Some of the big companies behind the push include General Electric (GE), Deere (DE) and Boeing (BA). GE has been especially vocal, saying that tariffs on its jet engines would fall from 20% to 5% if trade was normalized between the two nations. That would deliver a sizable boost to its profit margin and increase the availability of top-notch products to the Russian market.

    Companies in the agricultural space and the automotive space will also benefit as Russia will no longer be able to bar the importation of certain food stuffs and automobiles. This could be a great boost for major US factory farm companies like ConAgra (CAG) and ADM (ADM) as well as car manufacturers like Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler.

    Wall Street stands to benefit from all this new investment in Russia too. If Russia is seen as a solid place to invest capital, institutional investors will demand greater access to it. This could lead to a large influx of equity and debt capital into Russia's domestic market, all of which would yield juicy fees for Wall Street bankers.

    On the flip side, the large Russian companies that currently see London as a base of operation could be lured into moving some of their operations to New York. Currently, most large Russian companies, even the quasi-state owned ones, choose to list their stock in London and even Hong Kong over Moscow given their investor bases. As more of their investor base moves to the western hemisphere it will make more sense to list in the liquid New York markets. The NYSE has been courting Russian companies -- full trade normalization will most likely accelerate this nascent process.

    And while some Russian companies might move operations to Wall Street, U.S. banks may see new opportunities in Moscow. The WTO rules allow for 100% foreign-owned banks to open in Russia for the first time. The only limit is that 50% of the entire banking sector must remain in Russian hands.

    But while the benefits of full trade normalization are real, it will be many years before all the changes are implemented. Fearing a shock to some of its industries, Russia will be decreasing its tariffs over a 7-year period and will not be phasing them out. On average, Russian tariffs on imported goods are expected to decrease from 10% to 7.8% when all is said and done. Russia agreed to lower 33% of its tariffs from the date at which they enter the WTO. It will drop them another 25% after three years.

    Some industries will have much longer lead times than others. Tariffs in the automotive and airline industries will drop in seven years, with the tariff on autos going from 9.5% to 7.3%. Meanwhile some agricultural products have an eight year time lag, with the average agricultural tariff falling from 13.2% to 10.8%. And while the new agreement will allow foreign investment in Russia's insurance industry for the first time ever, it will be nine years before that market is open to investors.

    The Senate is expected to continue debating Russian trade for a few more weeks, with passage expected in the next few months, according to Senate Democrats. Both U.S. and Russian politicians are cautiously optimistic about this new level of openness and what it might produce. But the net benefits for both countries seem to be solid. The only wild card is whether or not Russia will truly play by the WTO rules. Only time will tell.