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高盛和摩根士丹利2012从头再来

高盛和摩根士丹利2012从头再来

Cyrus Sanati 2012年01月11日
低迷的四季报已经呼之欲出,但对高盛和摩根士丹利而言,2012年在一片黯淡之中或许仍然存在一线希望的光芒。

欧洲的机会?

    摩根士丹利和高盛都将继续保持适当的资产负债表规模,寻找新的盈利方式。两家银行都需要面对导致公司不愿上市、也不愿发行债券的经济困境。欧债危机最终得到解决之前,预计市场难以恢复常态。

    不过,严重的欧债危机也可能给高盛和摩根士丹利带来机会。目前欧洲银行都在被迫提高资本金充足率、出售资产。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师们预测,欧洲银行业的瘦身行动将导致高达130亿美元的市场重新分割。高盛和摩根士丹利凭借其庞大的规模和全球化覆盖,有望从相关业务中分得一杯羹。

    2012年银行业的另一个有利因素是与华尔街改革法案相关的监管不确定因素有望消除。一些争议最大的法案,如沃尔克法则(Volcker rules)和针对衍生品的林肯法则(Lincoln rules),年底前很可能明朗化。如果这些规定从轻实施,华尔街的利润可能会大幅反弹。

    华尔街正处于重建过程中,2011年第四季度反映的是震荡环境下壮士断腕的痛苦。摩根士丹利和高盛当前的股价都低于其内在资产价值,显然市场有些担心它们未来的盈利能力。公司定位的变化和实现转型的途径需要一段很长的时间才能重建投资者的信心。

An opportunity in Europe?

    Both Morgan and Goldman will continue to right size their balance sheets and attempt to find new ways to make money. Both will need to deal with economic troubles that have companies shying away from going public or issuing debt. A return to some sort of normalcy isn't expected until the European debt situation is finally resolved.

    But while European crisis is damaging, it could present Goldman and Morgan with an opportunity. European banks are being forced to raise their capital requirements and sell off assets. This slimming down of the European banks could see up to $13 billion in revenues up for grabs, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are well-positioned to eat up some of that business given their size and global reach.

    Another bright spot for the banks this year is potential end of the regulatory uncertainty associated with the Wall Street reform bill. Investors will most likely find out by the end of the year how some of the more controversial sections of the bill, like the Volcker rule and Lincoln rules on derivatives, will look. If the rules are implemented with a light touch, Wall Street could possibly see a massive resurgence in profit.

    Wall Street is under construction and this previous quarter reflects all the messiness associated with making tough repairs in a volatile environment. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are trading below their intrinsic asset values, so there is clearly some nervousness associated with their ability to make money in the future. Deciding what they want to be and how they want to get there will go a long way to restore investor confidence.

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