窃听丑闻愈演愈烈，新闻集团前景黯淡

    电话窃听丑闻事件再次重创新闻集团（News Corp.），这次应声而倒的是全资收购英国天空广播公司（British Sky Broadcasting Group）的计划。放弃这一收购计划引发人们的质疑：这个由鲁伯特•默多克掌舵的媒体帝国是否拥有良好的管理团队和策略来为公司创造价值？

    新闻集团目前拥有付费电视运营商英国天空广播公司39%的股份，处于实际控股地位；但是，分析人士和投资者均认为，全资收购天空广播对新闻集团来说至关重要。巴克莱银行（Barclays）分析师安东尼•迪克莱蒙特的一份报告显示，付费电视业务拥有稳定、安全的收入来源。如果全资拥有该公司，付费电视收入占新闻集团总收入的比例将从目前的55%提高到66%，同时将为新闻集团带来更低的税率。美国《综艺》杂志（Variety）的一篇报道援引市场研究公司Enders Analysis分析师托比•西芙丽特的观点称，天空广播一旦被新闻集团全资收购，其收入在未来五年内将增长一倍。

    晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师迈克尔•科尔蒂认为，花120亿美元现金收购天空广播，是新闻集团可以选择的最安全的投资方式，这是这桩收购在重要的意义所在。科尔蒂说：“与其他新闻公司类似，新闻集团一直致力于收购能够创造价值的公司。”他所指的是新闻公司收购社交网络服务网站聚友（Myspace）和道琼斯公司（Dow Jones）两笔收购案。

    2005年，新闻集团投入5.8亿美元收购聚友，但是它未能找到解决聚友亏损的办法。于是，今年夏天新闻集团以3,500万美元的价格，将聚友出售给在线媒体和广告公司Specific Media。新闻集团当时以57亿美元收购了道琼斯公司，但英国基础货币管理公司Fundsmith负责人特里•史密斯指出，截至目前，道琼斯公司的账面损失已达28亿美元。

    放弃天空广播收购案后，新闻集团的股票价格出现了上涨，主要是因为这桩悬而未决的收购案所带来的即期不确定性被一扫而光。但是，新闻集团的前景依然黯淡。天空广播收购案本来有望成为新闻集团历史上最大的收购案，而且投资者都相信，这一收购将大获成功。科尔蒂称，现在，新闻集团只能回购股票，或是寻找其他切实可行的收购对象。

    最近，新闻集团宣布了50亿美元的股票回购计划，希望抵制电话窃听丑闻造成的股票下滑之势。但是，目前的问题是，回购是否是利用公司现金的最佳方式？因为，成功回购的前提条件是股票交易价格低于实际价格。麦格理（Macquarie）的分析师亚历克斯•波拉克在周一调低了对新闻集团股票的估值，原因是新闻集团旗下在英国的报纸正面临巨大的压力。这些压力不仅来自广告商，还有约4,000位电话窃听丑闻受害者有可能发起的集体诉讼，以及美国可能对新闻集团展开调查所带来的潜在威胁。

    此外，史密斯认为，回购计划的主旨在于，避免牢骚满腹的股东提出事关公司战略和前景的核心问题，那就是：默多克家族成员是掌管新闻集团的最佳人选吗？

    “任何投资者在查看新闻集团的业绩时，都肯定会质疑：鲁伯特•默多克凭什么认为掌控新闻集团的最佳人选必须是默多克家族的成员呢？”史密斯在邮件中写道，“截至目前，在默多克家族的控制下，新闻集团过去五年的资本回报率仅为10%，表现平平；此外，在过去的15年中，新闻集团的股票表现不佳，低于标准普尔500指数（S&P 500 index）”。

    （翻译 乔树静）

    The latest casualty of News Corp.'s phone hacking scandal is the company's deal to acquire all of British Sky Broadcasting Group. The decision to drop the BSkyB bid raises questions about whether the media empire owned by Rupert Murdoch has the management team and the strategy to create value at the company.

    News Corp. [NWS], which currently owns a 39% stake in BSkyB, already controls the pay television broadcaster; but analysts and investors felt that it was important for News Corp. to acquire the rest of the company for several reasons. Full ownership would increase News Corp.'s exposure to pay-TV -- which generates steady, secure revenue streams -- to 66% of earnings from 55%, and create tax advantages for the conglomerate, according to a report by Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente. And earnings at BSkyB were expected to double in five years once the company was fully owned by News Corp, according to a report in Variety that cites analyst Toby Syfret, of Enders Analysis.

    Most importantly, the BSkyB deal was seen as the safest way for News Corp. to invest its considerable $12 billion cash balance, according to Morningstar analyst Michael Corty. "Like many media companies, News Corp. has struggled to acquire businesses that create value," Corty says, referring to deals to acquire Myspace and Dow Jones.

    News Corp. bought MySpace in 2005 for $580 million, never figured out a way to staunch losses at the social media company, and sold it this summer for just $35 million to Specific Media. Dow Jones, which was acquired for $5.7 billion, has so far produced a $2.8 billion write-down, notes Terry Smith, who heads UK-based money management firm Fundsmith.

    News Corp. shares rose after the BSkyB bid was dropped, in large part because it took away immediate uncertainty created by the deal being in limbo. But the company's future is still hazy. The BSkyB deal was to be the largest acquisition in News Corp. history, and investors felt confident that the acquisition would be a success. Now the company is left to either buy back shares, or find an acquisition that can actually work, says Corty.

    News Corp. recently announced a $5 billion share buyback plan, in an attempt to keep its stock from sinking further in the wake of the phone hacking revelations. But there are questions as to whether a buyback is the best use of the company's cash at this very moment. Such a move presupposes that the shares are trading below their true value. Macquarie analyst Alex Pollak reduced his valuation of News Corp. shares Monday due to the company's UK newspapers being under pressure from advertisers, the possibility of class action lawsuits brought by the estimated 4,000 victims of phone hacking, and the threat of investigations into News Corp. in the United States.

    Smith also believes that the buyback plan was created to keep disgruntled shareholders from asking the most important question about the company's strategy and future: whether a Murdoch is the best person to helm News Corp.

    "Looking at the performance of News Corp., any investor should surely query why Rupert Murdoch believes that the best person to control News Corp. must be someone named Murdoch," Smith wrote in an email. "So far his clans' control has produced a mediocre 10% return on capital cmployed over the past five years and a share price which has underperformed the S&P 500 index for the past 15 years."