1. 网络碎片化。Facebook的成功很大程度上依赖于它最大规模地积聚互联网用户群，理解及货币化这一用户群的能力。受网络效应推动，社交网络的发展应该会日益蓬勃。可是，我很难相信， Facebook十年之后的页面访问量还能独霸天下。我想我们已经看到了一种趋势：Facebook被当成人们身份与关系的大仓库，而深层次的互动转而在主旨更明确、分化更严重的社区进行。分享照片最好经由Instagram，产品的社交管理可在Pinterest上进行，自我表达通过Tumblr这样的平台最合适。没错，Facebook或多或少也具备上述功能，而且可以模仿上述公司，可是，瑞士军刀式兼顾一切产品的模式很难获得长远胜利。
The entire tech world is waiting with baited breath for the filing of Facebook's IPO next week. I'm excited – the company is an absolute monster and has completely transformed the web.
But, as I've reflected on Facebook this past weekend, I can't help shake a nagging feeling that the company's success feels somehow…fleeting. In some weird ways, Facebook makes me think a bit of Yahoo (YHOO). Not the Yahoo of today, but the Yahoo of the past. And I wonder if Facebook will see a similar decline over the next 10 years.
Here are the major vulnerabilities that I see:
1. Network fragmentation. Facebook's success is largely based on its ability to aggregate the biggest audience on the Internet and understand and monetize that audience. Social networks should be incredibly robust because of network effects. But I really have a hard time believing that Facebook will continue to dominate the pageviews 10 years from now. I think we are already seeing that while Facebook serves as a great repository of one's identity and relationships, deep engagement is starting to happen in more targeted, fragmented communities. Photo sharing is done best on Instagram. Social curation of products on Pinterest. Self-expression on platforms like Tumblr. Sure, Facebook participates in this activity somewhat and could copy these companies, but Swiss Army knives almost never win long term.
2. Not natively mobile. I think the mobile Internet will further accelerate the trend of network fragmentation. Part of Facebook's challenges will be driven by the rules of the app ecosystem that Apple has created. But mostly, Facebook's main challenge is that it was not built in a mobile-first context. We are in (or will soon be) in a mobile-first world, and I think it's hard to expect a large company like Facebook to own that domain in the same way. Just as Google (GOOG) ceded ground to Facebook because it was not natively social (and Yahoo was way, way worse), I can see Facebook ceding ground pretty quickly to products that are built with a mobile, distributed computing context in mind from the beginning.
3. Advertising effectiveness. Facebook's impressive revenue relies largely on advertising. But I think the jury is still out on how transformative it as as an advertising medium. Social advertising can be pretty compelling, but intent is pretty low, much like display advertising. I also think that Facebook falls pretty far short currently on its effectiveness as a brand advertising medium. Do you remember any really impactful brand campaigns this year that were deeply integrated with Facebook? I don't, but do remember several that were largely driven through YouTube and Twitter. Finally, Facebook hasn't yet developed a meaningful off-Facebook advertising product that has scale. These are more opportunities than criticisms, but if the company doesn't maintain leadership in these areas, I see it as a further challenge in the face of #1 and #2.