安卓必死

    我一度认为，如同Linux和Web服务在八、九年前起到的作用一样，安卓系统（Android）将成为后PC设备互联网时代的中流砥柱，扮演集成各种元素的核心角色。不同的是，Linux是在后台挑大梁，默默无闻地支撑着亚马逊（Amazon）和谷歌（Google）等服务，而安卓则主要面向用户，因此，庞大的平台规模（及其随之诞生的既成事实标准）必将为其带来巨大收益；这一点，自微软视窗操作系统时代以来，尚无其他软件能与之比肩。看看国际消费电子展（CES）上的一系列新品发布，人们肯定也会生出这样的感想。

    眼下，安卓势不可挡、前途已定的说法不绝于耳。然而，这种论调恰恰掩盖了一个事实，那就是安卓一统天下的梦想正在破灭。2011年发生的三件事彻底摧毁了这一梦想，现在我们捧着的不过是已然烧焦的、面目全非的尸体罢了：

    这三件事是：

    1、谷歌收购摩托罗拉（Motorola），并且疏远与所有一级手机制造商的关系（至今没有一家厂商敢于公开坦承认这一点，但是都已经出台了各自的“备用计划”）。

    2、微软（Microsoft）以知识产权保护的名义，向上述手机厂商收取许可费用。

    3、圣诞假期中，亚马逊发售了一款毫无特色的老版安卓系统，竟然取得了极大的成功。

    这三件事中，第一件完全可以避免。但是，争夺下一代计算界面控制权的斗争利益攸关，另外两件事也许只不过反映了这场游戏的本质。

    这场大象之舞的结局如何？这得看当事者所处的位置了：

    网络爱好者： HTML5的拥趸应该感到欣喜若狂才是，因为这意味着那些瞄准新兴安卓应用市场的初创公司将再次勃兴。这些公司开发的界面不仅将繁重的部署工作推给了网络（看看Kindle Fire和Google Market之间壁垒森严的架势，再想想其背后的原因所在，就能明白），而且还能将运行时间这个环节甩给手机浏览器。然而，这个如意算盘打不响，特别是从短期来看尤其如此；而且这么做的将导致一些关键设备传感器无法访问。但是，初创公司根本就不可能同时支持苹果的iOS系统、以及谷歌摩托罗拉、HTC、亚马逊等派系形形色色的安卓系统。因此，这一新兴标准将大获全胜。

    用户：还记得过去的日子吗？那时，运营商主宰着一切，不管他们提供什么晚餐，用户都得照单全收。尽管我们眼下并非要重返那个年代，但我还是忍不住想起我与一家美国运营商产品负责人的一番谈话。那是在去年的移动世界大会（Mobile World Congress）上，他对我说，他们眼中的理想世界是“共有5~10个平台，每家占据10~20%的份额。”原因何在？因为在如此混乱的局面中，总得有人帮助用户理清一切，而运营商恰恰能籍此重返市场的主导地位。我不能确定他们的这个美梦能否成真，但眼下设备操作系统市场四分五裂的局面显然为他们提供了一个良机。如果运营商曾经在哪方面大显身手的话，那就是：他们以亲身实践证明，系统预装功效神奇，能够彻底摧毁用户体验。

    I used to think that, as with Linux and web services in the early part of last decade, Android was going to be the mortar for the Internet of post-PC devices— an essential ingredient to put stuff together. And unlike Linux which puttered away quietly in the background doing the heavy lifting for services like Amazon and Google, Android was largely user-facing and would therefore benefit from massive platform scale (and the resulting de-facto standard it would create) in a way no piece of software since Microsoft Windows had. To to see the early onslaught of CES announcements, one would think so.

    What all of the talk of Android momentum and inevitability obscures, however, is that the dream of a common Android is dying. Three events in 2011 burned it and we're now holding onto a charred corpse that is quite different:

    The three events:

    1. Google buying Motorola and alienating all of the tier one handset makers (none of which to this day have the spine to state it publicly but all of which have now come up with their "plan B"),

    2. Microsoft extracting licensing fees from these same handset makers in the form of IP indemnification and

    3. Amazon shipping a wildly successful, yet unidentifiable, version of an old Android build over the holiday... and making it a wild success.

    Of the the three, #1 was completely avoidable but the other two may just have been the name of the game when there is so much at stake in the fight of who paints the interface for the next generation of computing.

    The result of this elephant dance? Well it depends on who you are:

    Web heads: All of the HTML5 folks should be ecstatic as it means that we're going to see a resurgence in startups that target the emerging Android splinters with interfaces which leave the heavy lifting on the deployment side to the the web (see the bit about how the Kindle Fire blocked the Google Market and vice versa for why) and on the runtime side to the mobile browser. It won't be as nice -- and in the short-term and it will lack access to key device sensors (though it may accelerate our getting those as API extensions of the DOM) -- but it is just not feasible to support iOS, Googlorola Android, HTC Sensedroid, Amazon Fire Droid, etc. if you are a startup. Big win for this emerging standard.

    Users: Remember the olden days when the carriers were in charge and you got whatever they were serving for dinner? Well we aren't ever going back to that but I can't help remember a conversation I had with the head of product for a U.S. carrier last year at Mobile World Congress where he told me that their ideal world was "5-10 platforms with 10-20% each." Why? Because in that mess someone has to help the user figure it all out and they are back to being in a pole position. I'm not sure they'll pull it off, but device OS fragmentation definitely gives them another at-bat and if there is one thing these guys have proven it is that preloads work magic to overcome totally busted user experiences.