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亚马逊明年有望拿下安卓平板半壁江山

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年12月08日

Kindle Fire可能会使苹果(Apple)之外其它所有营利性平板电脑厂商的市场份额化为乌有。

    周一,投资机构Evercore Partners的罗伯特•希拉在发给客户的苹果(Apple)报告中直言不讳地总结了亚马逊(Amazon)的Kindle Fire对平板电脑市场的影响:

    亚马逊的Kindle Fire甫一上市便销售强劲,一如人们的预期。但Kindle Fire也从侧面证实,苹果仍保持着市场的领先地位。值得一提的是,目前看来Kindle Fire是迄今唯一可能对iPad构成真正挑战的平板电脑,虽然亚马逊显然需要将售价降至成本线才能做到这一点;更别提亚马逊的成功可能让其他营利性Andriod平板电脑原始设备制造商的路线图化为乌有(比如,我们预计亚马逊2012年将获得Android平板电脑市场50%的份额)。与此同时,苹果仍是唯一一家能在每个涉足领域均赚取最丰厚利润的厂商,无论是平板电脑、智能手机,还是个人电脑。(强调:这只是我们的一家之言)

    希拉(曾在证券公司Caris & Co.任职)对苹果公司当季的业绩预期包括:

    • 将苹果2012财年第一季度营收预期从394亿美元下调至391亿美元;

    • 将苹果每股收益预期从10.28美元下调至10.26美元;

    • 将当季iPad销量预期从1,500万台下调至1,400万台,理由是明年3月iPad新版本推出前,旧款iPad销售渠道的库存将缩水;

    • 将Mac销量预期从500万台上调至520万台,主要根据是MacBook Air和Pro系列销售强劲;

    • 将毛利润率预期上调至41.1%,原因是iPhone对公司净利润的贡献上升(iPhone当季销量估计为3,000万部)

    In a note to clients Monday about Apple (AAPL), Evercore Partners' Robert Cihra summarizes the impact of Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire on the tablet market in stark terms:

    While Amazon's Kindle Fire has come out of the gates strong, as expected, we see Apple maintaining its competitive lead, if anything accentuated by what now looks like the only tablet to so far mount any credible iPad challenge apparently needing to do so by selling at cost; not to mention Amazon's success may just vaporize other "for profit" Android tablet OEM roadmaps (e.g., we est Amazon 50% of all Android tablets in CY12). Meanwhile Apple goes on as the only vendor able to cream off the most profitable segment of each market it targets, whether tablet, smartphone or PC. (emphasis ours)

    As for Apple's prospects in the current quarter, Cihra (formerly at Caris & Co.) has

    • Trimmed his Q1 2012 Apple revenue estimate to $39.1 billion (from $39.4 billion)

    • Trimmed his EPS estimate to $10.26 from ($10.28)

    • Trimmed his iPad estimate to 14 million units (from 15 million) to account for "channel inventory reductions heading into March's iPad refresh"

    • Raised his Mac estimate to 5.2 million units (from 5.0 million) on strong sales of the MacBook Air and Pro

    • Raised his gross margin estimate to 41.1% on the rising contribution of the iPhone (estimated sales this quarter: 30 million units) to the company's bottom line.

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