红海航运的混乱可能会让你的下一套时尚服装过时几周
红海的航运延误至今已达两周，全球航运公司仍在继续避开红海这片不稳定水域，多家快时尚公司面临着航运货物延误，用“时髦的延迟”来形容这个局面可能太过轻松。
包括拉尔夫·劳伦(Ralph Lauren)、露露柠檬(Lululemon)、H&M和Zara在内的大量服装公司可能面临长达数周的延误，原因是也门胡塞武装(Houthi) 袭击过往船只，这个名为“独立人民运动”(Ansarullah)的组织意在阻止运往以色列的军事货物。大小船只不得不转而改道非洲南端，延长的航路使原本追求快速上新、按风尚发货的服装公司面临着航运和燃料成本上涨的晦暗前景。零售商看到的是大幅上涨的价格，而消费者可能会感受到过时的时装带来的压力。
对那些依赖于快速发货的服装零售商来说，事情很麻烦
据路透社报道，绕道南非好望角的航线可能要多花几周时间，每次往返造成的额外燃油费用高达100万美元。
许多公司，尤其是那些销售依赖于快时尚趋势和快速配送的公司，将发现自己被迫在两个选项中做出抉择：要么通过昂贵的方式（如航空货运）加快货物运送速度，从而按时配送流行服饰；要么接受延迟发货这个不可控因素。
标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）供应链研究主管克里斯·罗杰斯（Chris Rogers）解释说，如果海运航线在未来几周仍不能恢复正常，“我们预计这种情况很可能发生，那么季节性交付将需要比正常情况提前两周发货”，才能跟上企业的设计和销售模式。他警告说，“对那些从设计到销售需要8到10周周转时间的企业来说，这可能是灾难性的。”他说：“许多人将需要考虑空运等替代运输路线。”
一些品牌已经宣布货运延迟，比如宜家（IKEA）在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中写道，该公司没有自己的船只，其合作伙伴已决定绕道非洲南端。“红海的情况将导致延误，”该公司表示，“我们正在与航运合作伙伴密切对话，确保宜家价值链上的工作人员的安全。”尽管如此，该公司称：“预计目前不会出现任何断货问题。”
据彭博社(Bloomberg)报道，服装品牌Abercrombie & Fitch上个月底宣布，为了避免严重的发货延误，正在考虑使用空运。空运的成本是海运的16倍。该公司的一位发言人在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中写道，航运中断提醒了公司，全球航运业的联系有多么紧密，他们“在保证货物流通的情况下，会改变运输方式和航线”。该公司还表示，“期待红海地区尽快恢复稳定。“
H&M的一位发言人告诉《财富》杂志，该品牌“预计供应链不会出现任何重大中断”，但会继续“密切关注形势”。
范斯（Vans）、北面（the North Face）、Timberland和Dickies等品牌的母公司VF公司和阿迪达斯（Adidas）拒绝了《财富》杂志的评论请求。
没那么快时尚
南亚是美国快时尚经济的主要枢纽，那些把生产基地设在南亚的零售商 将“首当其冲”地遭受运输延误和运费上涨带来的影响，美国全国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)负责供应链和海关政策的副总裁乔纳森·戈尔德(Jonathan Gold)表示。2022年，美国约有45%的服装是从亚洲进口的。
根据Statista的一份报告，巨大的东南亚服装市场预计今年将产生超过500亿美元的营收。最赚钱的品类是女装，预计今年将贡献近一半的市场营收，该地区93%的服装销售是非奢侈品。据专门研究南亚问题的顾问维诺德·西南迪(Vinod Sinandi)说，该市场涉及的国家包括印度、中国、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡。
据《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)报道，H&M和Zara的母公司Inditex约60%的销售额来自欧洲市场，而更依赖亚洲市场的H&M可能会面临更多与运输相关的问题。
供应链专家为何如此担忧
美国全国零售联合会的戈尔德解释说，运输中断已经让企业付出了代价，而且代价可能还会更高。他说，巴拿马运河干旱等因素使航运船只返航和重新装货的时间进一步延长，导致承运商和零售商的成本上升。
戈尔德说：“开往苏伊士运河或红海的船只改道，就意味着它们需要更长时间才能作为空船返回给托运人。更长的航程意味着船只将不按‘轮换时间表’运行，这增加了压力，因为承运商无法可靠地预测什么时候船会空出来，什么时候可以重新装货。“
这些延误也给美国西海岸等不经常从事货运装卸的市场带来了压力。除此之外，更高的航行和燃料成本意味着航运公司正在与客户商谈额外收费。这些特殊的紧急费用可能会使零售商为每批货物多花数百甚至至数千美元。
戈尔德说，对于消费端而言也很不利。零售商和承运商之间的合同费率通常在4月到5月之间到期，关于新合同条款和成本的讨论正在进行中。“零售商正在寻找解决方案，比如尽量提前发货和使用空运，但这些都是有成本的，”他说，“影响正在显现。企业试图减轻这种影响，但情况并不确定。”
戈尔德说，美国的服装消费者暂时还没感受到价格的压力，“零售商正在尽一切努力避免货架空置和价格上涨。”他表示，消费者可能仍然会面临服装价格上涨，“这取决于这种情况持续多久”。他还说，欧洲的时装消费者可能会更早感受到价格变化，因为该市场更依赖于红海贸易通道。
全球贸易中断
每年约有12%的全球贸易经由红海航行。货运平台Xeneta发布的一份报告显示，来自亚洲的货物占美国东海岸进口总量的近20%，其中服装约占58%。
据Xeneta的数据，从东亚到北欧的运费自去年12月中旬以来飙升了235%，使一个标准的40英尺集装箱的价格达到5,106美元。不过，根据标准普尔全球市场情报公司本月早些时候的一份报告，上涨后的价格仍远低于疫情期间的最高运输价格，2021年9月，市场见证了每个集装箱的运费高达1.8万美元。
为超过10万名客户和130个国家提供航运服务的国际航运公司马士基(Maersk)在12月中旬宣布，在发生“险些相撞事件”和本周晚些时候的“另一艘集装箱船遇袭”后，所有开往红海的船只暂停出发。
本周早些时候，马士基宣布，该地区发生的爆炸迫使其美国子公司运营的两艘载有军用物资的船只掉头返航。该公司还为彪马(PUMA)、范斯（Vans）、Timberlands、Jansport等品牌承运货物。
马士基高级新闻官雷纳•霍恩(Rainer Horn)在给《财富》杂志的一封电子邮件中表示，该公司“提供你能想到的几乎所有产品”。他说，来自亚洲的产品包括“大量的服装、鞋子、运动鞋和体育用品”，而在欧洲和亚洲之间，“大量的机械、化学品，以及烈酒、葡萄酒和啤酒等西方生活用品”。
红海危机从何而来
去年年底，伊朗支持的也门民兵组织胡塞武装(Houthis)开始打击开往以色列的船只，以回应以色列对加沙的灾难性袭击。专家称，这是本世纪最致命的战争之一。自去年11月以来，该民兵组织在商业航道上发动了30多次袭击。目前没有报告严重伤亡。
从那以后，美国和英国对胡塞武装目标进行了空袭，包括也门首都萨那及其国际机场。据美联社(Associated Press)报道，自1月12日以来，美国对也门进行了八次轰炸，击中了超过28个地点和60多个目标。上个月，拜登政府宣布将胡塞武装重新列为全球恐怖分子的计划。也门的贫困率超过85%，而联合国世界粮食计划署（UN World Food Programme）在去年12月决定停止向也门北部分发粮食。人道主义专家担心，也门获得的其它一些重要援助也将被削减。
尽管如此，胡塞民兵坚持继续袭击过往船只。据美联社报道，该组织外交部成员Hussein al-Ezzi警告称，“毫无疑问，美国和英国将必须准备付出沉重的代价，并承担这种公然侵略的所有可怕后果。”（财富中文网）
译者：珠珠
红海的航运延误至今已达两周，全球航运公司仍在继续避开红海这片不稳定水域，多家快时尚公司面临着航运货物延误，用“时髦的延迟”来形容这个局面可能太过轻松。
包括拉尔夫·劳伦(Ralph Lauren)、露露柠檬(Lululemon)、H&M和Zara在内的大量服装公司可能面临长达数周的延误，原因是也门胡塞武装(Houthi) 袭击过往船只，这个名为“独立人民运动”(Ansarullah)的组织意在阻止运往以色列的军事货物。大小船只不得不转而改道非洲南端，延长的航路使原本追求快速上新、按风尚发货的服装公司面临着航运和燃料成本上涨的晦暗前景。零售商看到的是大幅上涨的价格，而消费者可能会感受到过时的时装带来的压力。
对那些依赖于快速发货的服装零售商来说，事情很麻烦
据路透社报道，绕道南非好望角的航线可能要多花几周时间，每次往返造成的额外燃油费用高达100万美元。
许多公司，尤其是那些销售依赖于快时尚趋势和快速配送的公司，将发现自己被迫在两个选项中做出抉择：要么通过昂贵的方式（如航空货运）加快货物运送速度，从而按时配送流行服饰；要么接受延迟发货这个不可控因素。
标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）供应链研究主管克里斯·罗杰斯（Chris Rogers）解释说，如果海运航线在未来几周仍不能恢复正常，“我们预计这种情况很可能发生，那么季节性交付将需要比正常情况提前两周发货”，才能跟上企业的设计和销售模式。他警告说，“对那些从设计到销售需要8到10周周转时间的企业来说，这可能是灾难性的。”他说：“许多人将需要考虑空运等替代运输路线。”
一些品牌已经宣布货运延迟，比如宜家（IKEA）在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中写道，该公司没有自己的船只，其合作伙伴已决定绕道非洲南端。“红海的情况将导致延误，”该公司表示，“我们正在与航运合作伙伴密切对话，确保宜家价值链上的工作人员的安全。”尽管如此，该公司称：“预计目前不会出现任何断货问题。”
据彭博社(Bloomberg)报道，服装品牌Abercrombie & Fitch上个月底宣布，为了避免严重的发货延误，正在考虑使用空运。空运的成本是海运的16倍。该公司的一位发言人在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中写道，航运中断提醒了公司，全球航运业的联系有多么紧密，他们“在保证货物流通的情况下，会改变运输方式和航线”。该公司还表示，“期待红海地区尽快恢复稳定。“
H&M的一位发言人告诉《财富》杂志，该品牌“预计供应链不会出现任何重大中断”，但会继续“密切关注形势”。
范斯（Vans）、北面（the North Face）、Timberland和Dickies等品牌的母公司VF公司和阿迪达斯（Adidas）拒绝了《财富》杂志的评论请求。
没那么快时尚
南亚是美国快时尚经济的主要枢纽，那些把生产基地设在南亚的零售商 将“首当其冲”地遭受运输延误和运费上涨带来的影响，美国全国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)负责供应链和海关政策的副总裁乔纳森·戈尔德(Jonathan Gold)表示。2022年，美国约有45%的服装是从亚洲进口的。
根据Statista的一份报告，巨大的东南亚服装市场预计今年将产生超过500亿美元的营收。最赚钱的品类是女装，预计今年将贡献近一半的市场营收，该地区93%的服装销售是非奢侈品。据专门研究南亚问题的顾问维诺德·西南迪(Vinod Sinandi)说，该市场涉及的国家包括印度、中国、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡。
据《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)报道，H&M和Zara的母公司Inditex约60%的销售额来自欧洲市场，而更依赖亚洲市场的H&M可能会面临更多与运输相关的问题。
供应链专家为何如此担忧
美国全国零售联合会的戈尔德解释说，运输中断已经让企业付出了代价，而且代价可能还会更高。他说，巴拿马运河干旱等因素使航运船只返航和重新装货的时间进一步延长，导致承运商和零售商的成本上升。
戈尔德说：“开往苏伊士运河或红海的船只改道，就意味着它们需要更长时间才能作为空船返回给托运人。更长的航程意味着船只将不按‘轮换时间表’运行，这增加了压力，因为承运商无法可靠地预测什么时候船会空出来，什么时候可以重新装货。“
这些延误也给美国西海岸等不经常从事货运装卸的市场带来了压力。除此之外，更高的航行和燃料成本意味着航运公司正在与客户商谈额外收费。这些特殊的紧急费用可能会使零售商为每批货物多花数百甚至至数千美元。
戈尔德说，对于消费端而言也很不利。零售商和承运商之间的合同费率通常在4月到5月之间到期，关于新合同条款和成本的讨论正在进行中。“零售商正在寻找解决方案，比如尽量提前发货和使用空运，但这些都是有成本的，”他说，“影响正在显现。企业试图减轻这种影响，但情况并不确定。”
戈尔德说，美国的服装消费者暂时还没感受到价格的压力，“零售商正在尽一切努力避免货架空置和价格上涨。”他表示，消费者可能仍然会面临服装价格上涨，“这取决于这种情况持续多久”。他还说，欧洲的时装消费者可能会更早感受到价格变化，因为该市场更依赖于红海贸易通道。
全球贸易中断
每年约有12%的全球贸易经由红海航行。货运平台Xeneta发布的一份报告显示，来自亚洲的货物占美国东海岸进口总量的近20%，其中服装约占58%。
据Xeneta的数据，从东亚到北欧的运费自去年12月中旬以来飙升了235%，使一个标准的40英尺集装箱的价格达到5,106美元。不过，根据标准普尔全球市场情报公司本月早些时候的一份报告，上涨后的价格仍远低于疫情期间的最高运输价格，2021年9月，市场见证了每个集装箱的运费高达1.8万美元。
为超过10万名客户和130个国家提供航运服务的国际航运公司马士基(Maersk)在12月中旬宣布，在发生“险些相撞事件”和本周晚些时候的“另一艘集装箱船遇袭”后，所有开往红海的船只暂停出发。
本周早些时候，马士基宣布，该地区发生的爆炸迫使其美国子公司运营的两艘载有军用物资的船只掉头返航。该公司还为彪马(PUMA)、范斯（Vans）、Timberlands、Jansport等品牌承运货物。
马士基高级新闻官雷纳•霍恩(Rainer Horn)在给《财富》杂志的一封电子邮件中表示，该公司“提供你能想到的几乎所有产品”。他说，来自亚洲的产品包括“大量的服装、鞋子、运动鞋和体育用品”，而在欧洲和亚洲之间，“大量的机械、化学品，以及烈酒、葡萄酒和啤酒等西方生活用品”。
红海危机从何而来
去年年底，伊朗支持的也门民兵组织胡塞武装(Houthis)开始打击开往以色列的船只，以回应以色列对加沙的灾难性袭击。专家称，这是本世纪最致命的战争之一。自去年11月以来，该民兵组织在商业航道上发动了30多次袭击。目前没有报告严重伤亡。
从那以后，美国和英国对胡塞武装目标进行了空袭，包括也门首都萨那及其国际机场。据美联社(Associated Press)报道，自1月12日以来，美国对也门进行了八次轰炸，击中了超过28个地点和60多个目标。上个月，拜登政府宣布将胡塞武装重新列为全球恐怖分子的计划。也门的贫困率超过85%，而联合国世界粮食计划署（UN World Food Programme）在去年12月决定停止向也门北部分发粮食。人道主义专家担心，也门获得的其它一些重要援助也将被削减。
尽管如此，胡塞民兵坚持继续袭击过往船只。据美联社报道，该组织外交部成员Hussein al-Ezzi警告称，“毫无疑问，美国和英国将必须准备付出沉重的代价，并承担这种公然侵略的所有可怕后果。”（财富中文网）
译者：珠珠
With delays of up to two weeks, “fashionably late” might be too generous to describe the shipping delays that several fast fashion companies now face as global shipping companies continue to avoid the shaky waters of the Red Sea.
Loads of apparel companies including Ralph Lauren, Lululemon, H&M and Zara could face weeks long delays due to attacks on shipping vessels from Yemen’s Houthi group, called Ansarullah, which seeks to deter military shipments bound for Israel. Companies that depend on quick, on-trend deliveries now face a stormy horizon clouded with higher shipping and fuel costs as vessels reroute on lengthy trips around Africa’s southern tip. Retailers face hefty price increases while customers may feel the strain in clothes that arrive out of fashion.
Trouble for retailers who depend on quickly delivered, trendy clothes
Rerouting around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope can take weeks longer and cost up to $1 million extra in fuel costs for each round trip, Reuters reported.
Many companies, especially those whose sales depend on fast fashion trends and speedy deliveries, will find themselves forced to choose between delivering trends on time by expediting their packages through expensive routes, like air freight, or accepting delayed shipments as an uncontrollable factor.
Chris Rogers, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explained that if the disruptions last beyond the next few weeks, “which we expect they will, then seasonal deliveries will need to depart two weeks earlier than normal,” to keep up with companies’ design and sales models. He warns that this “could be disastrous for businesses that rely on an eight-to-10-week turnaround time from design to sale.” Many will “need to consider alternative transportation routes like air freight,” he said.
Several brands have already announced shipping delays, like IKEA, which wrote in a statement to Fortune that the company does not own its own shipping vessels and that its partners have decided to re-route vessels around Africa. “The situation in the Red Sea will result in delays,” the company wrote, and added that it is “in close dialogue with our shipping partners to ensure the safety of people working in the IKEA value chain.” Despite the situation, the company said it doesn’t “expect any availability constraints for the time being.”
Apparel brand Abercrombie & Fitch announced late last month that it is considering using air freight, which can cost up to 16 times more than cargo ships, to avoid significantly delayed shipments, according to Bloomberg. A company spokesperson wrote in a statement to Fortune that the shipping disruptions have reminded the company of how interconnected the global shipping industry is, and that they “shift transportation modes and shipping lanes when warranted to maintain the flow of goods.” The company also stated that it “looks forward to stability returning as quickly as possible in the Red Sea.”
An H&M spokesperson told Fortune that the brand doesn’t “foresee any significant disruptions” in its supply chain but it continues “following the situation closely.”
VF Corporation, the parent company of brands Vans, The North Face, Timberland and Dickies, and Adidas declined Fortune’s request for comment.
Not-so-fast fashion
South Asia is a major hub of the U.S fast-fashion economy, and retailers that manufacture there will be “impacted the most” by delays and higher shipping prices according to Jonathan Gold, the vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. In 2022, about 45% of American apparel imports came from Asia.
According to a Statista report, the huge Southeast Asia market for apparel is projected to generate over $50 billion this year. The most profitable section is for women’s apparel, which is expected to generate almost half of the market’s revenue this year, and 93% of apparel sales from the region are non-luxury items. Some of the countries that make up this sector include India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, according to Vinod Sinandi, a consultant who specializes in South Asia.
Inditex, the owner of H&M and Zara, relies on shipments to Europe for about 60% of its sales, and H&M, which depends more on Asian markets, may face more shipping related problems, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Why supply chain experts are concerned
The NRF’s Gold explained that the disruptions are already costing companies money, and could get even pricier. Factors like drought in the Panama Canal are compounding the already extended times for shipping vessels to return and be reloaded, contributing to higher costs for shippers and retailers, he said.
“When vessels that were destined for the Suez Canal or the Red Sea are re-routed, they’re now taking longer to return to shippers as empty vessels,” Gold said. The longer trips mean the vessels are “off their rotation schedules,” which adds pressure as shippers can’t reliably expect when they’ll be empty and free to reload again.
The delays also put pressure on other markets that aren’t used to receiving shipments, like the U.S. west coast. Beyond that, the higher costs of travel and fuel mean that shipping companies are negotiating additional charges for their customers. These special emergency charges could cost retailers between hundreds and thousands of dollars per shipment.
Timing is also not on shoppers’ side, Gold said. Contract rates between retailers and shippers typically expire between April and May, and discussions on what terms–and costs–should be in the new ones are underway. “Retailers are looking for solutions like trying to ship earlier and using air freight, but they all come at a cost,” he said. “This is having an impact. Companies are trying to mitigate it but it’s uncertain.”
U.S. customers who are buying clothes have yet to feel the price pinch, Gold said, and added that “retailers are doing everything they can to avoid empty shelves and price increases.” Customers might still face pricier clothes “dependent on how long the situation continues,” he said, adding that European fashion consumers could feel more of a price increase as that market is more dependent on the Red Sea trade lane.
The disruption in global trade
About 12% of global trade sails on the Red Sea each year. According to a report released by freight platform Xeneta, shipments from Asia account for almost 20% of all imports to the eastern coast of the U.S., and apparel comprises about 58% of those shipments.
Shipping rates from East Asia to North Europe have surged 235% since the middle of December, pricing a standard, 40-foot shipping container at $5,106, according to Xeneta. Still, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence earlier this month, the elevated price is still well below the peak shipping price of the pandemic, which hit $18,000 per shipping container in September 2021.
International shipping company Maersk, which provides shipping for more than 100,000 customers and 130 countries, announced in mid-December that it would pause all vessels bound for the Red Sea following a “near-miss incident,” and “another attack on a container vessel,” later that week.
Earlier this week, Maersk announced that explosions in the area forced two ships, operated by the company’s U.S. subsidiary and carrying military supplies, to turn around. The company also ships for brands like PUMA, Vans, Timberlands, Jansport and more.
Rainer Horn, a senior press officer at Maersk, wrote to Fortune in an email that the company ships “virtually everything that you can think of.” From Asia, he said, products include “a lot of clothes, shoes, sneakers and sports goods,” and between Europe and Asia, “a lot of machinery, chemicals, western lifestyle articles like spirits, wine and beer.”
How the Red Sea crisis started
At the end of last year, the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia in Yemen, began striking ships bound for Israel in response to the state’s catastrophic assault on Gaza, which experts say is one of the deadliest wars of this century. The militia has launched more than 30 attacks in commercial shipping lanes since November. No serious injuries have been reported.
Since then, the U.S. and United Kingdom have carried out airstrikes on Houthi targets, including the country’s capital city of Sana’a and the city’s international airport. Since Jan.12, the U.S. has bombed Yemen eight times, hitting more than 28 locations and over 60 targets, according to the Associated Press. Last month, the Biden administration announced plans to redesignate the Houthi militia as global terrorists, which humanitarian experts fear will cut more vital aid to Yemenis, where the poverty rate is over 85%, after the UN World Food Programme decided to pause food distribution to northern Yemen in December.
Despite it all, the Houthi militia insists that assaults on shipping vessels will continue. Hussein al-Ezzi, a member of the group’s foreign ministry, warned that “America and Britain will undoubtedly have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences of this blatant aggression,” according to AP News.
