受“外部因素“推动，美国2024年房价预计将上涨3.7%
随着抵押贷款利率的小幅下降，美国房地产市场开始出现好转。上周四，Zillow调整了其对2024年房价的预期。Zillow之前预测今年房价将与去年持平，但现在预测今年房价将上涨3.7%。
Zillow表示，其预期调整是基于“外部因素“，包括抵押贷款利率的下降和美联储（Federal Reserve）对通胀前景的改善。换言之，预期调整的依据并不是房屋本身构成或购房者活动出现了大的变化，比如某种库存的激增或卖方市场突然转为买方市场。Zillow高级经济学家妮可•巴肖对《财富》杂志表示，最近抵押贷款利率的下降意味着，现在一套普通住房的新发放抵押贷款月供是1,790美元，比2023年10月减少了413美元。
她表示：“如果今年春季利率依然维持在较低水平，使更多的买家有能力买房，这将加剧竞争。”通胀前景的改善可能意味着抵押贷款利率“离开峰值并小幅下降”，这“也会让买家和卖家都回到市场，给房价带来一些上行压力”。
Redfin上周四也报告称，在截至1月21日的四周时间内，房价上涨了5.1%，要价上涨了6.5%，均创下自2022年10月以来的最大涨幅。然而，Redfin首席经济学家达里尔•费尔韦瑟对《财富》杂志表示，Redfin预测2024年第二季度和第三季度房价将同比下降1%，这意味着房价自2012年以来将出现首次下跌。
她还指出，“然而，市场存在诸多不确定性。虽然我认为房价下跌的可能性比房价上涨的可能性更大，但房价上涨仍有可能。”
历史房价涨幅
巴肖表示，虽然Zillow预测今年房价将出现上涨，但3.7%实际上是比较正常的涨幅。
她表示，“自2020年以来，房地产市场经历了更大幅度的房价上涨和下跌。房价在未来一年达到3.7%的涨幅预期，房价上涨水平才更符合市场的历史常态。”她将历史常态定义为3%至5%的涨幅。
事实上，巴肖向买家保证，房价可能不会再出现疫情期间那样的涨幅。
她表示：“虽然我们预计房价会出现上涨，但不会加速上涨至疫情期间的高点。对2024年房价涨幅3.7%的预测与历史上的房价涨幅水平一致，所以我们不认为这种涨幅是房价的‘抬高’。”
其他值得关注的房地产市场因素
虽然Zillow上周四做出的预期修正主要是受抵押贷款利率下降和通胀前景改善的影响，但可能还存在其他房地产市场因素会推动房价变动。
巴肖表示：“过去几年，房屋库存一直是推动房价变动的关键因素。由于库存非常有限，而需求却居高不下，房价出现了飙升。”
她补充道，但在2024年，一些新的库存开始进入市场。其中包括进入市场的现有住宅，这些住宅的房主“感觉终于从极端的抵押贷款利率中‘解脱’了”。极端的抵押贷款利率导致了锁定效应。这种现象指房主维持着原来的状态，避免再次进入抵押贷款利率高于他们之前经历过的市场。她还将库存增加归因于2021年和2022年的“建筑热潮”，因为这些房屋现在终于进入市场。
她表示：“库存的增加将有助于抵消市场上的部分需求，并有助于保持房价与历史涨幅一致，而不是快速增长。”
费尔韦瑟提醒购房者，1月份的库存通常很低。她表示，Redfin也预测，随着抵押贷款利率锁定效应的缓解，新挂牌上市房屋的数量将“从2023年的历史低点攀升”。
费尔韦瑟表示，抵押贷款利率确实是推动房价上涨的最大因素。如果抵押贷款利率真的下降，将有更多购房者进入市场，这将导致竞争并推高房价。
她补充道，“如果通胀的缓解速度快于预期，抵押贷款利率可能会下降。相反，如果通胀卷土重来（可能由于全球冲突），抵押贷款利率可能会上升。”（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
随着抵押贷款利率的小幅下降，美国房地产市场开始出现好转。上周四，Zillow调整了其对2024年房价的预期。Zillow之前预测今年房价将与去年持平，但现在预测今年房价将上涨3.7%。
Zillow表示，其预期调整是基于“外部因素“，包括抵押贷款利率的下降和美联储（Federal Reserve）对通胀前景的改善。换言之，预期调整的依据并不是房屋本身构成或购房者活动出现了大的变化，比如某种库存的激增或卖方市场突然转为买方市场。Zillow高级经济学家妮可•巴肖对《财富》杂志表示，最近抵押贷款利率的下降意味着，现在一套普通住房的新发放抵押贷款月供是1,790美元，比2023年10月减少了413美元。
她表示：“如果今年春季利率依然维持在较低水平，使更多的买家有能力买房，这将加剧竞争。”通胀前景的改善可能意味着抵押贷款利率“离开峰值并小幅下降”，这“也会让买家和卖家都回到市场，给房价带来一些上行压力”。
Redfin上周四也报告称，在截至1月21日的四周时间内，房价上涨了5.1%，要价上涨了6.5%，均创下自2022年10月以来的最大涨幅。然而，Redfin首席经济学家达里尔•费尔韦瑟对《财富》杂志表示，Redfin预测2024年第二季度和第三季度房价将同比下降1%，这意味着房价自2012年以来将出现首次下跌。
她还指出，“然而，市场存在诸多不确定性。虽然我认为房价下跌的可能性比房价上涨的可能性更大，但房价上涨仍有可能。”
历史房价涨幅
巴肖表示，虽然Zillow预测今年房价将出现上涨，但3.7%实际上是比较正常的涨幅。
她表示，“自2020年以来，房地产市场经历了更大幅度的房价上涨和下跌。房价在未来一年达到3.7%的涨幅预期，房价上涨水平才更符合市场的历史常态。”她将历史常态定义为3%至5%的涨幅。
事实上，巴肖向买家保证，房价可能不会再出现疫情期间那样的涨幅。
她表示：“虽然我们预计房价会出现上涨，但不会加速上涨至疫情期间的高点。对2024年房价涨幅3.7%的预测与历史上的房价涨幅水平一致，所以我们不认为这种涨幅是房价的‘抬高’。”
其他值得关注的房地产市场因素
虽然Zillow上周四做出的预期修正主要是受抵押贷款利率下降和通胀前景改善的影响，但可能还存在其他房地产市场因素会推动房价变动。
巴肖表示：“过去几年，房屋库存一直是推动房价变动的关键因素。由于库存非常有限，而需求却居高不下，房价出现了飙升。”
她补充道，但在2024年，一些新的库存开始进入市场。其中包括进入市场的现有住宅，这些住宅的房主“感觉终于从极端的抵押贷款利率中‘解脱’了”。极端的抵押贷款利率导致了锁定效应。这种现象指房主维持着原来的状态，避免再次进入抵押贷款利率高于他们之前经历过的市场。她还将库存增加归因于2021年和2022年的“建筑热潮”，因为这些房屋现在终于进入市场。
她表示：“库存的增加将有助于抵消市场上的部分需求，并有助于保持房价与历史涨幅一致，而不是快速增长。”
费尔韦瑟提醒购房者，1月份的库存通常很低。她表示，Redfin也预测，随着抵押贷款利率锁定效应的缓解，新挂牌上市房屋的数量将“从2023年的历史低点攀升”。
费尔韦瑟表示，抵押贷款利率确实是推动房价上涨的最大因素。如果抵押贷款利率真的下降，将有更多购房者进入市场，这将导致竞争并推高房价。
她补充道，“如果通胀的缓解速度快于预期，抵押贷款利率可能会下降。相反，如果通胀卷土重来（可能由于全球冲突），抵押贷款利率可能会上升。”（财富中文网）
翻译：郝秀
审校：汪皓
Just as things had started looking up for the U.S. housing market, with mortgage rates dropping modestly, on Thursday Zillow revised its outlook for home prices in 2024. Its previous forecast had called for home prices to stay flat this year, but now it sees home values rising 3.7% this year.
Zillow said its revision is based on “external factors,” including a decline in mortgage rates and an improved inflation outlook from the Federal Reserve. In other words, it’s not a big change within the composition of housing itself or the activity of homebuyers—like some kind of huge rush of inventory or a sellers’ market suddenly morphing into a buyers’ market. The recent decline in mortgage rates means that monthly payments on a new mortgage for a typical home are now $1,790, which is $413 cheaper than in October 2023, Zillow senior economist Nicole Bachaud tells Fortune.
“This unlocks some more buyers to be able to shop for a home if rates stay lower this spring, which will increase competition,” she says. An improved inflation outlook could mean mortgage rates “staying off their peaks and floating down to a small degree,” which would “also bring both buyers and sellers back to the market, putting some upward pressure on home prices.”
Redfin also reported on Thursday that home prices were up 5.1% during the four weeks ended Jan. 21, the biggest increase since October 2022. Asking prices were up 6.5%, also the largest jump since October 2022. However, Redfin predicts a 1% decline in home prices year over year in the second and third quarters of 2024, marking the first time prices would decline since 2012, chief economist Daryl Fairweather tells Fortune.
“However, there is much uncertainty,” she notes. “Although I think a price decline is more likely than a price increase, a price increase is still possible.”
Historical home price increases
Although Zillow predicts that home prices will increase this year, 3.7% appreciation is actually somewhat normal, Bachaud says.
“Since 2020, the housing market experienced far wider ranges of home price growth and declines,” she says. “By moving to an expected 3.7% in the year ahead, appreciation is more in line with the market’s historical norms.” She defines historical norms as a 3% to 5% increase.
In fact, Bachaud assures buyers that home prices likely will not see pandemic-type growth again.
“While we are expecting to see prices rise, we are not expecting home prices to accelerate to the highs we experienced during the pandemic,” she says. “The 3.7% forecast for the next year is in line with historical housing appreciation levels, so we wouldn’t consider this movement a ‘drive up’ in prices.”
Other housing market factors to watch
While Zillow’s revision on Thursday was mostly driven by mortgage rate declines and an improved inflation outlook, there are other housing market factors that could drive changes in home prices.
“Housing inventory has been a key player in home price movements over the past few years,” Bachaud says. “With such limited inventory and an unrelenting level of demand, prices took off.”
But 2024 has started to show some new inventory entering the market, she adds. This includes existing homes going on the market from homeowners who are “finally feeling ‘unlocked’” from extreme mortgage rates, which caused a lock-in effect. This phenomenon showed current homeowners staying in place to avoid reentering a market with mortgage rates higher than what they had previously experienced. She also credits a “building boom” in 2021 and 2022 for an increase in inventory because those homes are now finally making their way to the market.
“This increased inventory will help to offset some of the demand in the market and will help to keep prices in line with historical appreciation instead of rapidly accelerating,” she says.
Inventory is typically low in January, Fairweather reminds buyers. But Redfin also predicts that the number of new listings will “climb from its record low in 2023 as the mortgage rate lock-in effect eases,” she says.
Still, mortgage rates are really the biggest factor driving home prices, Fairweather says. If mortgage rates do fall, then more homebuyers will enter the market, which creates competition and drives up home prices.
And “mortgage rates could fall if inflation eases faster than expected,” she adds. “Conversely, if inflation makes a comeback, possibly due to global conflicts, mortgage rates might increase.”
