美国新房开工量激增，但不足以解决全国的房地产市场危机
今年对于购房人而言，是糟糕的一年。10月末，抵押贷款利率达到8%的最高点，房价高企，但房屋供应水平却极低，因此，许多人很难而且也没有经济实力，进入房地产市场。但在即将步入2024年之际，出现了一丝希望的曙光：11月，房屋开工量激增，达到六个月新高。
美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）和美国住房与城市发展部（U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development）在周二表示，上个月，新房开工量比10月份的修正预估增加了14.8%，同期单户住宅开工量增加了18%。
房地产交易服务公司Bright MLS的首席经济学家丽萨·斯特蒂文特在一份报告中表示：“11月住宅建设活动出人意料地强劲，这主要是受到单户住宅建筑活动的推动。在建单户新房数量同比增长了40%。”
但她表示，在建多户住宅同比减少了33.7%。
但在新年来临之际，任何新增房屋库存都是购房人欢迎的趋势，因为据美国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors，NAR）统计，9月现房销售不可思议地同比减少了15%，降至十多年来的最低水平。但这并不足以解决美国的房地产市场危机。
房屋供应不足
斯特蒂文特表示：“尽管11月新房开工量增长，但我们的在建新房仍不足以满足需求。”她还表示，房屋供应缺口在300万至600万套之间。“在建新房不足导致房租和房价上涨，使得个人和家庭很难找到他们能买得起的房子。”
斯特蒂文特表示，在一些大都市区，更多房屋已经开工。在新公寓建设如火如荼的地区，出现了租金下降或者租金上涨速度放缓的趋势。此外，她还表示，今年早些时候，公寓建设量增长，已经开始“给通胀指标的住房部分带来下行压力”。她所说的通胀指标是指消费物价指数，其中住房成本是一个重要组成部分。
美国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·云在一份报告中表示，虽然新房建设量出人意料地大幅增加，但由于房屋库存量过低，因此这仍无法满足全国的需求。
他说道：“大多数市场持续存在房屋供应不足的问题，因此美国需要建设更多住宅。”《房贷每日新闻》（Mortgage News Daily）报道称，“只有显著改善房屋供应，才能缓解房价上涨。即使房屋建设量再增加30%，也能被市场轻松消化，”尤其是在上个月抵押贷款利率从7.34%下降至6.64%之后。
换言之，11月新房建设量激增，并不会马上解决美国的房地产市场危机。金融服务公司第一美国金融公司（First American）副首席经济学家奥德塔·库什在一份报告中表示，美国依旧面临“房屋建设量严重不足”的问题。她呼应斯特蒂文特的说法称，预估数据显示美国房地产市场存在350万至550万套的缺口。
库什表示：“新增房屋供应更有可能缓解而不是解决美国的房屋供应不足问题，当然具体结果要看各地的情况。”
但显而易见，新房市场的表现一致好于现房市场，因为现有业主担心会失去低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率，因此选择了暂停卖房，这种现象被称为“锁定效应”。然而，新房市场表现强劲不止是因为这一个原因。房屋建筑商经常提供激励或折扣，包括买低抵押贷款利率等，可以临时降低购房人的抵押贷款利率，或者减少贷款总额。一些建筑商还承担数万美元的房屋交割成本。
马里兰州贝塞斯达房地产咨询公司RCLCO Real Estate Consulting的负责人凯利·曼戈尔德在一份报告中表示：“在许多情况下，新房市场是唯一可靠的待售库存房屋供应渠道。利率下降提高了新房的可负担性，而且建筑商继续保证他们有足够的供应，可满足过去几年被抑制的需求。”
据Redfin统计，11月除了新房建设量激增外，房价虽然仍在上涨，但涨幅已经连续三个月下降。Redfin根据其房价指数统计，11月房价环比上涨了0.6%，这是自6月以来的最小涨幅。截至今年第三季度，美国已售房屋的中位数售价为431,000美元，较2020年同期的337,500美元上涨了近28%。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
盖蒂图片社
今年对于购房人而言，是糟糕的一年。10月末，抵押贷款利率达到8%的最高点，房价高企，但房屋供应水平却极低，因此，许多人很难而且也没有经济实力，进入房地产市场。但在即将步入2024年之际，出现了一丝希望的曙光：11月，房屋开工量激增，达到六个月新高。
美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）和美国住房与城市发展部（U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development）在周二表示，上个月，新房开工量比10月份的修正预估增加了14.8%，同期单户住宅开工量增加了18%。
房地产交易服务公司Bright MLS的首席经济学家丽萨·斯特蒂文特在一份报告中表示：“11月住宅建设活动出人意料地强劲，这主要是受到单户住宅建筑活动的推动。在建单户新房数量同比增长了40%。”
但她表示，在建多户住宅同比减少了33.7%。
但在新年来临之际，任何新增房屋库存都是购房人欢迎的趋势，因为据美国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors，NAR）统计，9月现房销售不可思议地同比减少了15%，降至十多年来的最低水平。但这并不足以解决美国的房地产市场危机。
房屋供应不足
斯特蒂文特表示：“尽管11月新房开工量增长，但我们的在建新房仍不足以满足需求。”她还表示，房屋供应缺口在300万至600万套之间。“在建新房不足导致房租和房价上涨，使得个人和家庭很难找到他们能买得起的房子。”
斯特蒂文特表示，在一些大都市区，更多房屋已经开工。在新公寓建设如火如荼的地区，出现了租金下降或者租金上涨速度放缓的趋势。此外，她还表示，今年早些时候，公寓建设量增长，已经开始“给通胀指标的住房部分带来下行压力”。她所说的通胀指标是指消费物价指数，其中住房成本是一个重要组成部分。
美国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·云在一份报告中表示，虽然新房建设量出人意料地大幅增加，但由于房屋库存量过低，因此这仍无法满足全国的需求。
他说道：“大多数市场持续存在房屋供应不足的问题，因此美国需要建设更多住宅。”《房贷每日新闻》（Mortgage News Daily）报道称，“只有显著改善房屋供应，才能缓解房价上涨。即使房屋建设量再增加30%，也能被市场轻松消化，”尤其是在上个月抵押贷款利率从7.34%下降至6.64%之后。
换言之，11月新房建设量激增，并不会马上解决美国的房地产市场危机。金融服务公司第一美国金融公司（First American）副首席经济学家奥德塔·库什在一份报告中表示，美国依旧面临“房屋建设量严重不足”的问题。她呼应斯特蒂文特的说法称，预估数据显示美国房地产市场存在350万至550万套的缺口。
库什表示：“新增房屋供应更有可能缓解而不是解决美国的房屋供应不足问题，当然具体结果要看各地的情况。”
但显而易见，新房市场的表现一致好于现房市场，因为现有业主担心会失去低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率，因此选择了暂停卖房，这种现象被称为“锁定效应”。然而，新房市场表现强劲不止是因为这一个原因。房屋建筑商经常提供激励或折扣，包括买低抵押贷款利率等，可以临时降低购房人的抵押贷款利率，或者减少贷款总额。一些建筑商还承担数万美元的房屋交割成本。
马里兰州贝塞斯达房地产咨询公司RCLCO Real Estate Consulting的负责人凯利·曼戈尔德在一份报告中表示：“在许多情况下，新房市场是唯一可靠的待售库存房屋供应渠道。利率下降提高了新房的可负担性，而且建筑商继续保证他们有足够的供应，可满足过去几年被抑制的需求。”
据Redfin统计，11月除了新房建设量激增外，房价虽然仍在上涨，但涨幅已经连续三个月下降。Redfin根据其房价指数统计，11月房价环比上涨了0.6%，这是自6月以来的最小涨幅。截至今年第三季度，美国已售房屋的中位数售价为431,000美元，较2020年同期的337,500美元上涨了近28%。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
New housing inventory is a welcome trend going into the new year for homebuyers.
GETTY IMAGES
Homebuyers have had it bad this year. Between mortgage rates that peaked at 8% in late October, high home prices, and extremely low levels of supply, it’s been exceedingly difficult and unaffordable for many people to break into the housing market. But there are small glimmers of hope going into 2024: For one, housing starts spiked in November to a six-month high.
New home starts jumped 14.8% last month from October’s revised estimate, and single-family housing starts increased 18% during the same period, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said on Tuesday.
“The surprisingly strong November residential construction activity was driven by single-family building activity,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist with real estate listing service company Bright MLS, said in a statement. “The number of new single-family homes under construction was up more than 40% compared to a year ago.”
However, she continued, multifamily home starts fell 33.7% compared to a year ago.
Still, any new housing inventory is a welcome trend going into the new year for homebuyers, given existing-home sales plummeted a stunning 15% in September year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR)—the lowest figure in more than a decade. But it’s not enough to solve the nation’s housing crisis.
Not enough housing
“Despite the higher starts in November, we are still not building enough new housing to keep up with demand,” Sturtevant said, adding that the shortfall ranges from 3 to 6 million units. “A lack of sufficient new housing construction drives rents and home prices up, making it difficult for individuals and families to find housing they can afford.”
In some metropolitan areas, more home construction is already underway, Sturtevant said. And in areas where new apartment construction is booming, rents have either come down or rent increases have slowed. Also, the rise in apartment construction earlier this year has already begun to put “downward pressure on the shelter component of the inflation measure,” she added, referring to the consumer price index, in which housing costs are a major component.
Even with the unexpected surge in new construction, the country can use much more considering its exceedingly low inventory levels, National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Even more homebuilding will be needed with the housing shortage persisting in most markets,” he said. “Home price appreciation can only moderate from drastically improved supply. Another 30% rise in home construction can easily be absorbed in the marketplace,” especially in light of a plunge in mortgage rates during the past month from 7.34% to 6.64%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
In other words, the surge in new construction in November isn’t suddenly going to fix the housing crisis nationwide. The country remains “meaningfully underbuilt,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist with financial services firm First American, said in a statement. Estimates show that the country is short 3.5 million to 5.5 million housing units, she said, echoing Sturtevant.
The “new supply of housing is more likely to ease rather than erase the national housing shortage, although this will of course vary by location,” Kushi said.
Nevertheless, it’s clear that the new-home market has consistently outperformed the existing-home market, as current homeowners hold on to their homes for fear of losing their below-market mortgage rates—a phenomenon referred to as the lock-in effect. However, that’s not the only thing that’s keeping the new-home market strong. Homebuilders are more often than not offering incentives or discounts, including mortgage rate buydowns, which can either reduce a buyer’s mortgage rate temporarily or for the entirety of the loan. Some builders are also covering up to tens of thousands of dollars in closing costs.
“The new-home market is in many cases the only reliable supplier of for-sale inventory,” Kelly Mangold, principal of Bethesda, Md.-based real estate advisory RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a statement. “Lower rates increase the affordability of new homes, and builders are continuing to ensure they have enough supply ready to meet the pent-up demand from the past few years.”
In addition to the surge in new-home construction, home prices, while increasing, have slowed for the third straight month in November, according to Redfin. Home prices rose 0.6% from a month earlier, the smallest increase since June, Redfin said, as measured by its home price index. The median sale price for houses sold in the U.S. is $431,000, as of the third quarter of this year, a nearly 28% increase from the same period in 2020, when the median price was $337,500.
