美国11月通胀率继续回落
美国11月通胀率再次下降，更便宜的燃油帮助进一步减轻了美国物价上涨的负担。
与此同时，有关物价上涨的最新数据显示，一些行业的物价，例如餐厅、二手车和汽车保险这些服务行业，依然在以令人不安的速度快速上涨。
美国劳工部（Labor Department）周二的报告称，11月的消费价格指数（CPI）环比小幅上涨0.1%，与一年前的11月相比增长了3.1%，较10月3.2%的同比涨幅有所下降。
11月，不计波动性食品和能源成本，核心物价指数环比增长0.3%，略高于10月0.2%的环比增幅。与一年前相比，11月核心物价指数增长了4%，与10月持平。美联储认为核心物价指数更有助于其判断未来的通胀走向。
有鉴于喜忧参半的通胀报告，美联储在周三的会议之后继续维持现有的基准利率不变。当前，通胀率依然高于美联储2%的年度目标，这也是为什么美联储一心要保持利率高位运行的原因。然而，由于通胀的回落步伐快于预期，美联储决策者可能会觉得无需进一步加息，至少现在是如此。
外界广泛认为，美联储连续第三次保持其基准利率不变，这意味着美联储可能不愿看到借贷成本的继续上涨。该机构已经将其基准利率上调至22年以来的新高，达到了约5.4%，彰显了其驯服通胀的决心。加息举措推高了房贷、车贷、企业融资和其他信贷成本，亦反映了美联储的目标——尽可能地给借贷和消费降温，从而遏制通胀。
燃油价格的稳步回落也帮助阻击了通胀。美国汽车协会称，全美燃油平均价格从一年半之前约5美元/加仑的峰值降至周一的3.15美元/加仑。相比之下，百货店的高物价则尤为顽固，给众多家庭带来了沉重的经济负担。
令美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他美联储官员十分欣慰的是，通胀自2022年6月达到9.1%之后一直在稳步回落。然而，他们也警告说，物价上涨的步伐对于美联储来说依然过快，还不能放松警惕。
受此影响，即便美联储不再加息，它可能也会保持这一峰值基准利率不变，至少还会持续数个月的时间。鲍威尔甚至警告说，为了打赢这场高通胀阻击战，美联储可能会决定再次加息。自2022年3月以来，美联储已经上调这一重要的短期利率多达11次。
作为一个鲜为人知但受到美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标，核心物价指数在10月同比上涨了3.5%，低于美联储对今年第四季度3.7%的预测。
通胀的稳步回落引发了有关明年降息的猜测，一些经济师认为美联储最快明年3月份就会采取行动。在过去六个月中，这个受到美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标的年增幅仅为2.5%。
然而，鲍威尔已经否定了有关美联储可能会在近期降息的看法，估计他在周三的会议上会再次表明这一立场。
鲍威尔本月早些时候曾说过：“现在就推测美联储可能降息为时尚早。”（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
美国11月通胀率再次下降，更便宜的燃油帮助进一步减轻了美国物价上涨的负担。
与此同时，有关物价上涨的最新数据显示，一些行业的物价，例如餐厅、二手车和汽车保险这些服务行业，依然在以令人不安的速度快速上涨。
美国劳工部（Labor Department）周二的报告称，11月的消费价格指数（CPI）环比小幅上涨0.1%，与一年前的11月相比增长了3.1%，较10月3.2%的同比涨幅有所下降。
11月，不计波动性食品和能源成本，核心物价指数环比增长0.3%，略高于10月0.2%的环比增幅。与一年前相比，11月核心物价指数增长了4%，与10月持平。美联储认为核心物价指数更有助于其判断未来的通胀走向。
有鉴于喜忧参半的通胀报告，美联储在周三的会议之后继续维持现有的基准利率不变。当前，通胀率依然高于美联储2%的年度目标，这也是为什么美联储一心要保持利率高位运行的原因。然而，由于通胀的回落步伐快于预期，美联储决策者可能会觉得无需进一步加息，至少现在是如此。
外界广泛认为，美联储连续第三次保持其基准利率不变，这意味着美联储可能不愿看到借贷成本的继续上涨。该机构已经将其基准利率上调至22年以来的新高，达到了约5.4%，彰显了其驯服通胀的决心。加息举措推高了房贷、车贷、企业融资和其他信贷成本，亦反映了美联储的目标——尽可能地给借贷和消费降温，从而遏制通胀。
燃油价格的稳步回落也帮助阻击了通胀。美国汽车协会称，全美燃油平均价格从一年半之前约5美元/加仑的峰值降至周一的3.15美元/加仑。相比之下，百货店的高物价则尤为顽固，给众多家庭带来了沉重的经济负担。
令美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他美联储官员十分欣慰的是，通胀自2022年6月达到9.1%之后一直在稳步回落。然而，他们也警告说，物价上涨的步伐对于美联储来说依然过快，还不能放松警惕。
受此影响，即便美联储不再加息，它可能也会保持这一峰值基准利率不变，至少还会持续数个月的时间。鲍威尔甚至警告说，为了打赢这场高通胀阻击战，美联储可能会决定再次加息。自2022年3月以来，美联储已经上调这一重要的短期利率多达11次。
作为一个鲜为人知但受到美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标，核心物价指数在10月同比上涨了3.5%，低于美联储对今年第四季度3.7%的预测。
通胀的稳步回落引发了有关明年降息的猜测，一些经济师认为美联储最快明年3月份就会采取行动。在过去六个月中，这个受到美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标的年增幅仅为2.5%。
然而，鲍威尔已经否定了有关美联储可能会在近期降息的看法，估计他在周三的会议上会再次表明这一立场。
鲍威尔本月早些时候曾说过：“现在就推测美联储可能降息为时尚早。”（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
S. inflation ticked down again last month, with cheaper gas helping further lighten the weight of consumer price increases in the United States.
At the same time, the latest data on consumer inflation showed that prices in some areas — services such as restaurants, used cars and auto insurance — continued to rise uncomfortably fast.
Tuesday’s report from the Labor Department said the consumer price index rose just 0.1% from October to November. Compared with a year earlier, prices were up 3.1% in November, down from a 3.2% year-over-year rise in October.
Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from October to November, slightly faster than the 0.2% increase the previous month. Measured from a year ago, core prices rose 4%, the same as in October. The Federal Reserve considers core prices to be a better guide to the future path of inflation.
The mixed picture in Tuesday’s inflation report will likely keep the Fed on track to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when its latest meeting ends Wednesday. Inflation still exceeds the Fed’s 2% annual target, which is why its officials are set to leave rates high. But with inflation cooling faster than expected, the Fed’s policymakers likely see no cause to further raise rates, at least for now.
The Fed’s widely expected decision to keep its key rate unchanged for a third straight time suggests that it’s probably done raising borrowing costs. The central bank has raised its key rate to about 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years, in a determined drive to conquer inflation. Its rate hikes have made mortgages, auto loans, business borrowing and other forms of credit much costlier, reflecting the Fed’s goal of slowing borrowing and spending enough to tame inflation.
Helping keep a lid on inflation has been a steady decline in gas prices. From a peak of $5 about a year and a half ago, the national average has dropped to $3.15 a gallon as of Monday, according to AAA. Grocery store inflation, by contrast, has proved especially persistent and a drain on many households’ finances.
Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have welcomed inflation’s steady fall from 9.1% in June 2022. But they have cautioned that the pace of price increases is still too high for the Fed to let down its guard.
As a result, even if the central bank is done raising rates, it’s expected to keep its benchmark rate at a peak for at least several more months. Powell has even warned that the Fed might decide to raise rates again if it deems it necessary to defeat high inflation. The Fed raised its key short-term rate 11 times starting in March 2022.
According to a lesser-known inflation gauge that the Fed prefers, core prices rose 3.5% in October compared with 12 months earlier. That was less than the central bank’s forecast of 3.7% for the final three months of this year.
Inflation’s steady decline has sparked speculation about interest rate cuts next year, with some economists floating the potential for cuts as early as March. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has increased at an annual pace of just 2.5% in the past six months.
But Powell has so far brushed aside the idea that the Fed might cut rates anytime soon. He is expected to say so again Wednesday.
“It would be premature,” Powell said earlier this month, “to speculate” on the possibility of Fed rate cuts.
