房利美首席执行官表示，现在买房简直是狄更斯式的“双市场故事”
那是最好的时代……实际上是最糟糕的时代。7%以上的抵押贷款利率加上不断上涨的房价，让今年10月成为本世纪最不适合买房的时候。
上个月抵押贷款利率达到近23年来的最高点7.31%（根据房地美的数据，目前为7.57%），买卖双方都在承压。卖家不愿意放弃不到3%利率买的房屋，而一些买家则可能要用超过60%的收入还房贷。
一边是卖家惜售，一边是买家担心，个中分歧形成房地产专家和经济学家所谓的“锁定”效应，导致现房销量下降。
“这是个双市场故事，”房利美首席执行官普里西拉·阿尔莫多瓦在美国抵押贷款银行家协会（Mortgage Bankers’ Association）年会上接受《市场观察》（MarketWatch）采访时表示。“房主的状况很好，因为房子可能有很多权益。
此外，“他们的抵押贷款利率可能是2%、3%、4%，”她补充道，但也受到“不放弃抵押贷款的锁定效应”限制。
此刻，多位房地产专家和经济学家都无法确定房地产市场何时才能重新活跃。随着美联储承诺“更长时间保持高利率”，上周抵押贷款利率超过7.5%。
《财富》美国500强金融服务公司First American首席经济学家马克·弗莱明告诉《财富》杂志:“今年后几个月，（抵押贷款利率）很可能会保持这一水平，甚至接近8%，特别是如果年底前美联储再加息的话。”
如果抵押贷款利率居高不下，买家和卖家的痛苦都要持续到2024年。ICE mortgage Technology企业研究副总裁安迪·沃尔登告诉《财富》杂志，目前按收入和抵押贷款利率的变化来看，过去两个月潜在购房者的购买力下降了6%以上。
“交易速度可能因此减缓，最终春夏两季房价涨势稳健的历史惯例都会受影响，”他表示。
根据Case-Shiller美国房价指数，现房平均售价超过31万美元，几乎是十年前的两倍。今年迄今为止，房价上涨超过5%。
房价与抵押贷款利率同步走高的结果是，当前房地产市场已涨至21世纪以来最高。最近沃尔登接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，房子确实太昂贵，美国人收入必须飙升55%才能承担。
他对CNBC《the Exchange》主持人凯利·埃文斯说：“如果看看住房负担能力，以及如何才能推动当前市场正常化，房价要调整35%，要么（抵押贷款）利率下降4%，要么收入增加55%——或者相互组合。”
随着很多人买房的困难越来越大，现房销售数量也在下降。美国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）的数据证实，2023年将成为2008年房地产泡沫破裂以来销售最低迷的一年。美国房地产经纪人协会数据显示，按照目前速度，预计2023年现房总销量为410万套，远低于2021年的600多万套。
“负担能力降低以及利率锁定效应日渐强力，都抑制了房市销售，”此前《财富》美国500强金融服务公司First American的副首席经济学奥德特·库什对《财富》表示。“哪怕能买得起，也买不到非卖品。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
那是最好的时代……实际上是最糟糕的时代。7%以上的抵押贷款利率加上不断上涨的房价，让今年10月成为本世纪最不适合买房的时候。
上个月抵押贷款利率达到近23年来的最高点7.31%（根据房地美的数据，目前为7.57%），买卖双方都在承压。卖家不愿意放弃不到3%利率买的房屋，而一些买家则可能要用超过60%的收入还房贷。
一边是卖家惜售，一边是买家担心，个中分歧形成房地产专家和经济学家所谓的“锁定”效应，导致现房销量下降。
“这是个双市场故事，”房利美首席执行官普里西拉·阿尔莫多瓦在美国抵押贷款银行家协会（Mortgage Bankers’ Association）年会上接受《市场观察》（MarketWatch）采访时表示。“房主的状况很好，因为房子可能有很多权益。
此外，“他们的抵押贷款利率可能是2%、3%、4%，”她补充道，但也受到“不放弃抵押贷款的锁定效应”限制。
此刻，多位房地产专家和经济学家都无法确定房地产市场何时才能重新活跃。随着美联储承诺“更长时间保持高利率”，上周抵押贷款利率超过7.5%。
《财富》美国500强金融服务公司First American首席经济学家马克·弗莱明告诉《财富》杂志:“今年后几个月，（抵押贷款利率）很可能会保持这一水平，甚至接近8%，特别是如果年底前美联储再加息的话。”
如果抵押贷款利率居高不下，买家和卖家的痛苦都要持续到2024年。ICE mortgage Technology企业研究副总裁安迪·沃尔登告诉《财富》杂志，目前按收入和抵押贷款利率的变化来看，过去两个月潜在购房者的购买力下降了6%以上。
“交易速度可能因此减缓，最终春夏两季房价涨势稳健的历史惯例都会受影响，”他表示。
根据Case-Shiller美国房价指数，现房平均售价超过31万美元，几乎是十年前的两倍。今年迄今为止，房价上涨超过5%。
房价与抵押贷款利率同步走高的结果是，当前房地产市场已涨至21世纪以来最高。最近沃尔登接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，房子确实太昂贵，美国人收入必须飙升55%才能承担。
他对CNBC《the Exchange》主持人凯利·埃文斯说：“如果看看住房负担能力，以及如何才能推动当前市场正常化，房价要调整35%，要么（抵押贷款）利率下降4%，要么收入增加55%——或者相互组合。”
随着很多人买房的困难越来越大，现房销售数量也在下降。美国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）的数据证实，2023年将成为2008年房地产泡沫破裂以来销售最低迷的一年。美国房地产经纪人协会数据显示，按照目前速度，预计2023年现房总销量为410万套，远低于2021年的600多万套。
“负担能力降低以及利率锁定效应日渐强力，都抑制了房市销售，”此前《财富》美国500强金融服务公司First American的副首席经济学奥德特·库什对《财富》表示。“哪怕能买得起，也买不到非卖品。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
It was the best of times…but really it was the worst of times. The combination of 7%-plus mortgage rates and rising home prices makes October the least affordable month for buying a house this century.
Mortgage rates, which hit a near 23-year high last month at 7.31% (today they’re 7.57%, according to Freddie Mac), strained buyers and sellers alike. Sellers are reluctant to let go of the homes they bought at sub-3% mortgage rates, while some buyers face spending upwards of 60% of their income on housing.
The dichotomy of both sellers’ unwillingness to sell and buyer apprehension has caused what real estate experts and economists refer to as the “lock-in” effect, which is leading to low existing-home sales volumes.
“It’s a tale of two markets,” Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae CEO, told MarketWatch in an interview at the Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s annual conference. “Homeowners are in good shape because they probably have a lot of equity in their homes.
Plus, “they probably have a mortgage that’s 2%, 3%, 4%,” she added, but they are constrained by a “lock-in effect of not giving up that mortgage.”
At this point, many real estate experts and economists are unsure of when the housing market could be recalled to life. With the Federal Reserve’s commitment to “higher for longer” interest rates, mortgages eclipsed 7.5% last week.
“It is likely [that mortgage rates] will stay around that level or even get closer to 8% in the last few months of the year, especially if the Fed does raise rates one more time before the year is done,” Mark Fleming, chief economist at Fortune 500 financial services company First American, tells Fortune.
If mortgage rates remain high, both buyers and sellers will feel the pain until well into 2024. For now, prospective homebuyers’ buying power—how much one can buy based on changes in income and mortgage rates—is down more than 6% during the past two months, Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research for ICE Mortgage Technology, tells Fortune.
“This could slow transaction speeds and may ultimately weigh on what had been a historically strong level of home price growth throughout the spring and summer,” he says.
The average existing home sale exceeds $310,000, according to the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, nearly double the cost just a decade ago. Year to date, home prices are up more than 5%.
Home prices rising in tandem with mortgage rates are making today’s housing market the last affordable it’s been since the early 2000s. In fact, the housing market has gotten so expensive that U.S. incomes would have to surge 55% for homebuying to be considered affordable, Walden said in a recent CNBC interview.
“If you look at home affordability itself and what it would take to normalize the market today,” he told Kelly Evans of CNBC’s The Exchange, “it’s a 35% correction in price, or a 4% decline in [mortgage] rates, or a 55% growth in income—some combination of those.”
And as homebuying becomes further out of reach for many, the number of existing home sales has fallen. National Association of Realtors data confirms that 2023 is shaping up to be the lowest year in terms of number of home sales since the housing bubble burst in 2008. At its current pace, total existing-home sales in 2023 are projected to total 4.1 million, according to NAR, far short of the more than 6 million sold in 2021.
“The combination of reduced affordability and an even stronger rate lock-in effect suppresses [the number of] home sales,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at Fortune 500 financial services company First American, previously told Fortune. “You can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it.”
