一位商业地产公司CEO表示，办公楼市场崩溃已经开始
商业地产市场有许多不确定性，现在所有人都在关注办公楼领域。从大银行发布的研究报告到学术论文都显示，受到远程办公的冲击，办公楼市场前景堪忧。
但在已经动荡不安的经济环境中，办公楼市场是否会成为下一个倒下的行业？为了回答所有人都密切关注的这个问题，我们采访了圣塔莫尼卡商业地产经纪与咨询公司Corion Enterprises的首席执行官兼创始人弗莱德·科多瓦。
科多瓦用各种有趣的、相关联的比喻，证明办公楼行业正在陷入崩溃，他的公司早在一年多前就已经预测到了这种状况。根据科多瓦对办公楼物业现状的分析可以看出，办公楼与其他商业地产之间有一点区别，使办公楼市场面临最大风险，而这个区别就是需求。
所有商业地产都容易受到高通胀的影响，因为高通胀等同于高利率。但新冠疫情导致的向居家办公模式的广泛转变，大幅减少了对办公室的需求。在洛杉矶、旧金山和曼哈顿等大规模市场，办公楼空置率创历史新高。
以下是《财富》杂志对弗莱德·科多瓦的访谈内容。为明确和清晰起见，部分问题经过编辑和精简。
《财富》：摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）等银行业巨头似乎都在拉响警报，强调办公楼市场存在风险。办公楼市场是否即将崩溃？
科多瓦：他们并不是在拉响警报，而是在“马冲出马棚”的时候才敲响警钟。这种警告已经存在了一段时间。办公楼市场当前的状况很具有启发性：我们建设了大量僵尸建筑，没有人想在这些建筑中投入任何资金，因为它们的资本结构已经崩溃。
办公楼市场的现状产生于三个不利因素的影响。显而易见，通货膨胀增加了入住成本，并且给承担不同运营成本的业主们带来了压力。除非他们采取由租客支付保险、地产税和物业管理费的出租方式（有些业主采取这种方式，但大多数房产的出租方式并非如此），否则办公楼的入住成本和提供服务的成本将持续上涨。这是第一个不利因素。第二个因素是利率。房地产行业的杠杆率较高，甚至某些情况的杠杆率极高。因此，利率成本对绩效的影响巨大。随着利率大幅提高，拥有房产的净现金流量下降，几乎所有现金流都被用于偿还债务。
第三个因素是办公楼特有的问题，那就是需求状况，而造成这种状况的原因是疫情。要养成一种习惯，只需要将一件事重复约50次，而习惯一旦养成就很难更改。疫情让人们养成了居家办公的习惯。首先，这个习惯让人们增加了实际收入。而从更根本的角度来说，它让人们拥有了选择权，让上班族可以选择坐在桌子边办公，还是在厨房里办公，是穿着睡衣工作，还是一边遛狗一边工作。居家办公彻底改变了工作与生活的平衡和生活质量，变成了一种习惯。这意味着租户需要的空间减少。如果突然之间，你不需要10万平方英尺的空间，只需要5万或者2.5万平方英尺就已经足够，这会影响办公楼的利用率，进而影响办公楼的租金。
这对于物业的价值评估意味着什么？
假设一栋办公楼的购买价格为2.3亿美元，它的售价可能只有1亿美元。而且为了将房子租出去，你还需要再支出至少1亿美元用于租户改善，希望能吸引租户。这只是成本。还有利息呢？如果你能幸运地得到一笔贷款，顺便说一句，并非任何人都能申请到贷款，目前办公楼的债务缺少流动性；你需要为使用贷款付出成本。你的付出不会创造任何价值。
这方面的模拟或者担保面临巨大压力。现在人们基本上放弃了模型，因为模型并不能代表一切。真正会发生的情况是，人们会只按照面积数据购买资产。他们会降价购买办公物业，因此资产价值将大幅下跌。
办公楼物业的未来前景是怎样的？
办公楼需要资本注入，这是该领域正常运行的唯一途径。目前，大多数银行负债都已经经过配对，这意味着这些负债中无法提供权益，因此它们都变成了僵尸建筑。业主因为无法摆脱困境，因此不会为了收回损失而继续追加投入。贷款机构也不会投入资金，因为这相当于杯水车薪，他们无法从中获得任何价值回报。办公楼物业会被出售；贷款机构将成为控制方。贷款机构希望保住他们自己的资产，而保住贷款余额最好的方法就是低价卖掉办公楼物业。
当前还有谁会购买办公楼？
问得好。这个问题的答案很简单：没有人会购买办公楼。没有人知道利率的变动趋势，也没有人知道未来通货膨胀的状况。人们不了解资本成本，因此没有人愿意为办公楼提供贷款，办公楼的债务也就不会有流动性。
我想你会看到一家或多家房地产投资信托（REITs）被私有化，而且对此我并不感到意外。如果美联储能够放松油门，停止加息，表明他们将暂停加息，甚至在年底时降息，并且通货膨胀得到控制，到那时你会看到有买家重新进入市场。
办公楼物业价值下降有哪些影响？
从拥有物业的角度，假如不考虑办公楼的权益，这对社会的影响极小，因为受影响的投资者都很精明，他们会继续投资。真正受到伤害的是公众。各类资产的房产税会大幅下降，而依赖这些房产税的预算将会超支，严重超支。然后这些资产所在的社区将被毁灭。在某些方面，洛杉矶市区已经几乎变成了废墟。
租户纷纷搬出洛杉矶，他们的员工不想到洛杉矶办公。这会产生雪球效应：餐厅和入驻的所有服务类商户得不到支持，因此他们只能关门大吉。
现在流行一种将空置办公楼改造成住宅的说法。能跟我们谈论一下这种观点吗？
行业需要的巨变是将这些资产进行资本重组，并改造部分资产的用途。我想你会听到更多关于从办公楼到多户住宅的说法。价值依旧会下降到每平方英尺100美元的水平，目前尚未达到这个水平。办公楼每平方英尺100美元相当于多户住宅的每平方英尺[可租赁空间]125美元，因为在将办公楼改造成多户住宅的过程中，会损失约20%的可租赁空间；这是两者的差距所在。建筑改造的成本约为每平方英尺250至350美元，因此目前仍存在缺口。但如果你能填补权益缺口，就能完成对部分建筑的改造。我认为，这需要私人与城市和州政府合作，这是我们目前的做法。
在我看来，您似乎认为办公楼市场已经崩溃或者正在崩溃的过程中？
您有没有看过丹泽尔·华盛顿主演的电影《迫降航班》（Flight）？飞机的机翼起火，只能紧急迫降。问题只是撞击的严重程度有多大。这部电影很有启发性。
我们有太多办公空间需要消失，无论是拆除还是进行改造。整个办公楼行业需要重置。我认为，我们需要培养新员工，他们可以选择居家办公的时间，但需要接受一定的约束。让员工重回办公楼办公之后，我们需要对这些资产重新进行价值评估。然后，我们必须放弃许多没有意义的办公楼。
这一切的前提是利率下降。利率和通胀必须趋于稳定，这样我们才有能力进行担保和预测，才能清楚投资办公楼的成本、回报和价值。
如果你一直在暴风雪中滑雪，看不到天空，这是非常疯狂的，也非常可怕。你的行进速度将变得非常缓慢。这就是我们目前的状态。我们正在经历一场暴风雪，一场笼罩办公楼市场的经济暴风雪。所有人都要慢慢前行，直到雪过天晴。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
商业地产市场有许多不确定性，现在所有人都在关注办公楼领域。从大银行发布的研究报告到学术论文都显示，受到远程办公的冲击，办公楼市场前景堪忧。
但在已经动荡不安的经济环境中，办公楼市场是否会成为下一个倒下的行业？为了回答所有人都密切关注的这个问题，我们采访了圣塔莫尼卡商业地产经纪与咨询公司Corion Enterprises的首席执行官兼创始人弗莱德·科多瓦。
科多瓦用各种有趣的、相关联的比喻，证明办公楼行业正在陷入崩溃，他的公司早在一年多前就已经预测到了这种状况。根据科多瓦对办公楼物业现状的分析可以看出，办公楼与其他商业地产之间有一点区别，使办公楼市场面临最大风险，而这个区别就是需求。
所有商业地产都容易受到高通胀的影响，因为高通胀等同于高利率。但新冠疫情导致的向居家办公模式的广泛转变，大幅减少了对办公室的需求。在洛杉矶、旧金山和曼哈顿等大规模市场，办公楼空置率创历史新高。
以下是《财富》杂志对弗莱德·科多瓦的访谈内容。为明确和清晰起见，部分问题经过编辑和精简。
《财富》：摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）等银行业巨头似乎都在拉响警报，强调办公楼市场存在风险。办公楼市场是否即将崩溃？
科多瓦：他们并不是在拉响警报，而是在“马冲出马棚”的时候才敲响警钟。这种警告已经存在了一段时间。办公楼市场当前的状况很具有启发性：我们建设了大量僵尸建筑，没有人想在这些建筑中投入任何资金，因为它们的资本结构已经崩溃。
办公楼市场的现状产生于三个不利因素的影响。显而易见，通货膨胀增加了入住成本，并且给承担不同运营成本的业主们带来了压力。除非他们采取由租客支付保险、地产税和物业管理费的出租方式（有些业主采取这种方式，但大多数房产的出租方式并非如此），否则办公楼的入住成本和提供服务的成本将持续上涨。这是第一个不利因素。第二个因素是利率。房地产行业的杠杆率较高，甚至某些情况的杠杆率极高。因此，利率成本对绩效的影响巨大。随着利率大幅提高，拥有房产的净现金流量下降，几乎所有现金流都被用于偿还债务。
第三个因素是办公楼特有的问题，那就是需求状况，而造成这种状况的原因是疫情。要养成一种习惯，只需要将一件事重复约50次，而习惯一旦养成就很难更改。疫情让人们养成了居家办公的习惯。首先，这个习惯让人们增加了实际收入。而从更根本的角度来说，它让人们拥有了选择权，让上班族可以选择坐在桌子边办公，还是在厨房里办公，是穿着睡衣工作，还是一边遛狗一边工作。居家办公彻底改变了工作与生活的平衡和生活质量，变成了一种习惯。这意味着租户需要的空间减少。如果突然之间，你不需要10万平方英尺的空间，只需要5万或者2.5万平方英尺就已经足够，这会影响办公楼的利用率，进而影响办公楼的租金。
这对于物业的价值评估意味着什么？
假设一栋办公楼的购买价格为2.3亿美元，它的售价可能只有1亿美元。而且为了将房子租出去，你还需要再支出至少1亿美元用于租户改善，希望能吸引租户。这只是成本。还有利息呢？如果你能幸运地得到一笔贷款，顺便说一句，并非任何人都能申请到贷款，目前办公楼的债务缺少流动性；你需要为使用贷款付出成本。你的付出不会创造任何价值。
这方面的模拟或者担保面临巨大压力。现在人们基本上放弃了模型，因为模型并不能代表一切。真正会发生的情况是，人们会只按照面积数据购买资产。他们会降价购买办公物业，因此资产价值将大幅下跌。
办公楼物业的未来前景是怎样的？
办公楼需要资本注入，这是该领域正常运行的唯一途径。目前，大多数银行负债都已经经过配对，这意味着这些负债中无法提供权益，因此它们都变成了僵尸建筑。业主因为无法摆脱困境，因此不会为了收回损失而继续追加投入。贷款机构也不会投入资金，因为这相当于杯水车薪，他们无法从中获得任何价值回报。办公楼物业会被出售；贷款机构将成为控制方。贷款机构希望保住他们自己的资产，而保住贷款余额最好的方法就是低价卖掉办公楼物业。
当前还有谁会购买办公楼？
问得好。这个问题的答案很简单：没有人会购买办公楼。没有人知道利率的变动趋势，也没有人知道未来通货膨胀的状况。人们不了解资本成本，因此没有人愿意为办公楼提供贷款，办公楼的债务也就不会有流动性。
我想你会看到一家或多家房地产投资信托（REITs）被私有化，而且对此我并不感到意外。如果美联储能够放松油门，停止加息，表明他们将暂停加息，甚至在年底时降息，并且通货膨胀得到控制，到那时你会看到有买家重新进入市场。
办公楼物业价值下降有哪些影响？
从拥有物业的角度，假如不考虑办公楼的权益，这对社会的影响极小，因为受影响的投资者都很精明，他们会继续投资。真正受到伤害的是公众。各类资产的房产税会大幅下降，而依赖这些房产税的预算将会超支，严重超支。然后这些资产所在的社区将被毁灭。在某些方面，洛杉矶市区已经几乎变成了废墟。
租户纷纷搬出洛杉矶，他们的员工不想到洛杉矶办公。这会产生雪球效应：餐厅和入驻的所有服务类商户得不到支持，因此他们只能关门大吉。
现在流行一种将空置办公楼改造成住宅的说法。能跟我们谈论一下这种观点吗？
行业需要的巨变是将这些资产进行资本重组，并改造部分资产的用途。我想你会听到更多关于从办公楼到多户住宅的说法。价值依旧会下降到每平方英尺100美元的水平，目前尚未达到这个水平。办公楼每平方英尺100美元相当于多户住宅的每平方英尺[可租赁空间]125美元，因为在将办公楼改造成多户住宅的过程中，会损失约20%的可租赁空间；这是两者的差距所在。建筑改造的成本约为每平方英尺250至350美元，因此目前仍存在缺口。但如果你能填补权益缺口，就能完成对部分建筑的改造。我认为，这需要私人与城市和州政府合作，这是我们目前的做法。
在我看来，您似乎认为办公楼市场已经崩溃或者正在崩溃的过程中？
您有没有看过丹泽尔·华盛顿主演的电影《迫降航班》（Flight）？飞机的机翼起火，只能紧急迫降。问题只是撞击的严重程度有多大。这部电影很有启发性。
我们有太多办公空间需要消失，无论是拆除还是进行改造。整个办公楼行业需要重置。我认为，我们需要培养新员工，他们可以选择居家办公的时间，但需要接受一定的约束。让员工重回办公楼办公之后，我们需要对这些资产重新进行价值评估。然后，我们必须放弃许多没有意义的办公楼。
这一切的前提是利率下降。利率和通胀必须趋于稳定，这样我们才有能力进行担保和预测，才能清楚投资办公楼的成本、回报和价值。
如果你一直在暴风雪中滑雪，看不到天空，这是非常疯狂的，也非常可怕。你的行进速度将变得非常缓慢。这就是我们目前的状态。我们正在经历一场暴风雪，一场笼罩办公楼市场的经济暴风雪。所有人都要慢慢前行，直到雪过天晴。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
GETTY IMAGES
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding commercial real estate, with all eyes on the office space. From research notes published by the big banks to academic papers, it’s not looking too good for the sector that has been plagued by remote work.
But is the office the next shoe to drop in an already turbulent economy? To get an answer to the question that’s on all our minds, we asked Fred Cordova, chief executive officer and founder of Santa Monica–based commercial real estate brokerage and consultancy firm Corion Enterprises.
With Cordova’s wildly entertaining, and relevant, analogies, he basically suggests the office sector is crashing—and that his firm predicted it over a year ago. Following Cordova’s breakdown of the state of office properties, there’s one thing separating office from all other commercial real estate, making it the sector most at risk, and that’s demand.
All commercial real estate is vulnerable to high inflation, which equates to high interest rates. But the widespread shift to working from home, triggered by the pandemic, has largely wrecked the need for a physical office. In major markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Manhattan, office vacancy rates are at record highs.
Below is Fortune‘s conversation with Fred Cordova. Portions of the Q&A have been edited and condensed for clarity and brevity.
Fortune: Banking giants from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs seem to be sounding the alarm, stressing that the office sector is at risk. Is the office sector headed for a crash?
Cordova: They’re not sounding the alarm, they’re ringing the bell when the horses are all out of the barn. This has been coming for some time. What’s happening in the office sector is apocalyptical: We’re creating this huge class of zombie buildings, buildings that no one wants to put any money into because the capital structure is broken.
What’s happening is buffeted by three headwinds. You have, obviously, inflation, which drives up occupancy costs and puts pressure on the landlord across the spectrum of their operating costs. So unless their leases are triple net (and some are, but most are not), the occupancy costs and the costs to really deliver service in an office building keep rising. So that’s one. Two is interest rates. The real estate industry is fairly leveraged, and in some cases a highly leveraged industry. So interest costs can be extremely impactful to performance. With the dramatic increase in interest rates, the net cash flow available to ownership has dropped, and virtually all of that is being swept to pay debt.
The third, that’s unique to office, is the demand profile, and that was really caused by the pandemic. It takes about 50 repetitions to create a habit, and once you do that, it’s hard to break it. The pandemic created a habit of people working from home. That habit, first of all, gave people a raise in take-home pay. It also, more fundamentally, gave people the power of choice, so it gave workers the choice of whether to work from their desk or from the kitchen, work in their pajamas, and work while they’re walking their dog. It changed the whole work-life balance and quality of life and became a habit. That means tenants need less space. If all of a sudden you don’t need 100,000 square feet, and you can get by with 50,000 or 25,000 square feet, that affects the utilization of that office building, so it crushes the rent profile of the building.
What does that all mean for property valuations?
Let’s say an office building was purchased for $230 million. I think it’s going to sell for like $100 million. But you are signing up to spend at least $100 million more on your tenant improvements just to lease it up and hope that it gets leased up. That’s just the cost. What about carrying the interest rate? If you’re lucky enough to get a loan—which no one is, by the way—there is no liquidity for office right now on the debt side; you’re paying just for the money. That’s not creating any value.
The modeling for this, the underwriting is extremely stressed. People are pretty much just throwing the models out right now; models don’t mean anything. What’s going to really be happening is people are going to be buying these assets on just a square-footage number. They’re going to buy it on a really discounted basis, and so the asset values will plummet.
What can we expect for office properties moving forward?
The buildings need an injection of capital, it’s the only way it works ever. So right now, most of the bank debt is already paired, meaning there’s no equity in it, so they’re all zombie buildings. The owners aren’t going to put good money after bad because they’re not going to get it out. The lenders aren’t going to put any money in because they’re just throwing a glass of water in the ocean—they’re not going to get any value out. Office properties are going to be sold; lenders are going to get control. The lenders want to preserve their assets, so the best way to preserve the loan balance is to short-sell the asset.
Why would anyone, at this point, buy an office building?
That’s a very good question, and the short answer is, no one is just yet. No one knows where interest rates are going yet, no one knows where inflation is going yet. No one is going to lend on these office buildings when they don’t know what the cost of their capital is, so there’s no liquidity for debt.
What I suspect you’ll see, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this, is to have one or more of the REITs [real estate investment trusts] taken private. And then once the Fed takes its foot off the gas, it stops raising rates, and signals that they’re going to hit the pause button, and maybe even lower rates at the end of the year, and inflation comes in check, then you will see buyers re-enter the marketplace.
What are the effects of these losses in property values?
From the ownership standpoint, and the, let’s say, evisceration of equity in these buildings, it has very little impact on society because these are investors who are smart and move on. But where it really hurts is the public group. Property taxes are going to get slaughtered across the board with every asset class, so the budgets that rely on those property taxes are blown up. Absolutely blown up. Then, the community in which these assets are located is devastated. Downtown L.A. has become almost a wasteland in some respects.
Tenants are moving out of L.A.; their staff doesn’t want to be there. It’s a snowball effect: You can’t support the restaurants, you can’t support all the service businesses that are there, so they’re all closing.
There are conversations circulating about converting vacant office properties into housing. Tell me about that?
The big dramatic change that’s needed is the recapitalization of these assets and the repurposing of some assets. I think you’ll see some more conversions from office to multifamily. The values still have to come down to about $100 per square foot, and they’re not there yet. $100 per square foot for the office space translates into $125 per [rentable] square foot for multifamily because you lose about 20% of the rentable space when you convert; that’s the magic number. It costs about $250 to $350 per square foot to convert these buildings, so there’s a gap right now. But if you can plug that equity gap, which I think there’s a play to do so through a private partner with the city and state and that’s what we’re working on, then you can convert some of these buildings.
It seems to me that you think that the office sector has already crashed or is currently crashing?
Have you seen the Denzel Washington movie Flight? Well, the wings of the plane are on fire, the plane is coming down. It’s just a matter of how hard it’s going to hit. It is apocalyptical.
We have too much office space that just needs to go away, whether it’s torn down or repurposed. The whole office sector needs a reset. I think we’re going to need to create this new employee, someone who gets to choose when they work from home but within certain constraints. Then once we get these people back to work in the buildings, all these assets need to have a new capitalization on them. And then, we have to get rid of a lot of these office buildings that are no longer purposeful.
None of that’s going to happen until interest rates settle down. They have to stabilize and inflation has to stabilize, so that we have the ability to underwrite and prognosticate, and we have some visibility as to what costs, returns, and values are.
If you’ve ever been skiing in a whiteout and you can’t see your skies, it’s pretty crazy, it’s pretty scary. You go real slow. And that’s where we are. We’re in a whiteout, we’re in an economic whiteout for the office space. So everybody is going to move very slowly until the cloud can clarify.
