美国人突然改变了对买房的看法，只有五分之一的人认为这是个好主意
高利率和房价飙升正在扼杀美国人对房地产市场的信心。盖洛普（Gallup）的一项新调查显示，只有21%的美国成年人认为现在是买房的好时机。这是自1978年该机构首次向美国人提出这个问题以来，美国人购房情绪指数最低的一次。这也是情绪指数连续第二年跌至新低——2022年，只有30%的购房者认为房地产市场对购房者有利。
从情绪指数变化的角度来看，这两年之前的历史低点是50%，而这一情况刚刚发生在2020年，足见变化的速度有多快。
不难分析为何购房情绪如此低迷。在过去一年多的时间里，利率大幅上升，抑制了人们的负担能力，房价中位数为436,800美元，而新冠疫情前为329,000美元。在过去的几个月里，住房负担能力一直处于历史最低点。
盖洛普表示，这项调查不仅考虑了房地产市场的整体健康状况，还考虑了美国人是否认为房地产仍然是一项不错的投资。自1978年以来的大部分时间里，至少有一半的美国人对房地产市场有信心。但自新冠疫情以来，这种情况发生了巨大变化。
在新冠疫情早期，创纪录的低利率导致许多美国人的财务状况出现两极分化。那些有能力购房并且能够找到房子的人很幸运，因为房价大幅上涨；美联储（Federal Reserve）发现，房主的净资产中位数是租房者的40倍。
房价飙升意味着房主可以在过去几年中更快地积累资产（根据CoreLogic的一项分析，从2021年年底到2022年年底，抵押贷款持有人的资产增加了1万亿美元）。但这也意味着，目前的潜在买家正是因为房价过高，从而望而却步。
Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara的房地产经纪人莫琳·麦克德穆特称：“可悲的现实是，拥有住房是家庭积累代际财富的最佳途径，而这在美国大部分地区都处于危险之中。仍需提振房地产市场。”
利率不断走高，这一点尤其致命，很快就使有吸引力的房价变得难以承受。事实上，根据Bankrate的数据，以目前6.58%的平均利率计算，一笔30万美元贷款的月供将比美联储于2022年3月开始加息时（当时平均利率为4.40%）多出410美元。
因此，尤其是年轻的购房者，正在推迟他们的购房梦想。西北互惠银行（Northwestern Mutual）的《2023年规划与进展研究》（2023 Planning & Progress Study）显示，近四分之一的Z世代和18%的千禧一代表示，由于经济不确定性，他们将推迟买房或建房，而在所有美国人中，这一比例为12%。盖洛普指出，弥漫在市场上的悲观情绪可能会让首次购房者处于观望状态。
麦克德穆特说：“在过去的五年里，我们过去认为的‘起步房’房价大幅上涨，而工资和收入却没有跟上房价涨幅。随着租金上涨和房价上涨，潜在的购房者正受到来自两方面的挤压。当租金占据了租房者月收入的一半时，就很难攒下首付。”
尽管如此，根据盖洛普的调查，房地产仍然被认为是最佳长期投资选择：在该机构的经济和个人财务情况调查中，美国人对房地产的排名高于股票、债券、黄金和其他资产。不过，它的优势正在缩小。如今，大约34%的人认为这是最佳投资选择，而去年这一比例为创纪录的45%。这表明市场情绪在一年内会发生多大的变化。
盖洛普在另一份报告中指出：“过去一年的高利率使房地产市场降温，抑制了消费者对房地产投资的热情。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
高利率和房价飙升正在扼杀美国人对房地产市场的信心。盖洛普（Gallup）的一项新调查显示，只有21%的美国成年人认为现在是买房的好时机。这是自1978年该机构首次向美国人提出这个问题以来，美国人购房情绪指数最低的一次。这也是情绪指数连续第二年跌至新低——2022年，只有30%的购房者认为房地产市场对购房者有利。
从情绪指数变化的角度来看，这两年之前的历史低点是50%，而这一情况刚刚发生在2020年，足见变化的速度有多快。
不难分析为何购房情绪如此低迷。在过去一年多的时间里，利率大幅上升，抑制了人们的负担能力，房价中位数为436,800美元，而新冠疫情前为329,000美元。在过去的几个月里，住房负担能力一直处于历史最低点。
盖洛普表示，这项调查不仅考虑了房地产市场的整体健康状况，还考虑了美国人是否认为房地产仍然是一项不错的投资。自1978年以来的大部分时间里，至少有一半的美国人对房地产市场有信心。但自新冠疫情以来，这种情况发生了巨大变化。
在新冠疫情早期，创纪录的低利率导致许多美国人的财务状况出现两极分化。那些有能力购房并且能够找到房子的人很幸运，因为房价大幅上涨；美联储（Federal Reserve）发现，房主的净资产中位数是租房者的40倍。
房价飙升意味着房主可以在过去几年中更快地积累资产（根据CoreLogic的一项分析，从2021年年底到2022年年底，抵押贷款持有人的资产增加了1万亿美元）。但这也意味着，目前的潜在买家正是因为房价过高，从而望而却步。
Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara的房地产经纪人莫琳·麦克德穆特称：“可悲的现实是，拥有住房是家庭积累代际财富的最佳途径，而这在美国大部分地区都处于危险之中。仍需提振房地产市场。”
利率不断走高，这一点尤其致命，很快就使有吸引力的房价变得难以承受。事实上，根据Bankrate的数据，以目前6.58%的平均利率计算，一笔30万美元贷款的月供将比美联储于2022年3月开始加息时（当时平均利率为4.40%）多出410美元。
因此，尤其是年轻的购房者，正在推迟他们的购房梦想。西北互惠银行（Northwestern Mutual）的《2023年规划与进展研究》（2023 Planning & Progress Study）显示，近四分之一的Z世代和18%的千禧一代表示，由于经济不确定性，他们将推迟买房或建房，而在所有美国人中，这一比例为12%。盖洛普指出，弥漫在市场上的悲观情绪可能会让首次购房者处于观望状态。
麦克德穆特说：“在过去的五年里，我们过去认为的‘起步房’房价大幅上涨，而工资和收入却没有跟上房价涨幅。随着租金上涨和房价上涨，潜在的购房者正受到来自两方面的挤压。当租金占据了租房者月收入的一半时，就很难攒下首付。”
尽管如此，根据盖洛普的调查，房地产仍然被认为是最佳长期投资选择：在该机构的经济和个人财务情况调查中，美国人对房地产的排名高于股票、债券、黄金和其他资产。不过，它的优势正在缩小。如今，大约34%的人认为这是最佳投资选择，而去年这一比例为创纪录的45%。这表明市场情绪在一年内会发生多大的变化。
盖洛普在另一份报告中指出：“过去一年的高利率使房地产市场降温，抑制了消费者对房地产投资的热情。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
High interest rates and soaring prices are killing Americans’ faith in the U.S. housing market. Just 21% of U.S. adults say now is a good time to buy a house, according to a new poll from Gallup. That’s the lowest homebuyer sentiment has ever been in data going back to 1978, when the organization first asked Americans the question. It’s also the second year in a row that sentiment has hit a new low—last year, just 30% of homebuyers thought the housing market was good for buyers.
To put in perspective how rapidly the mood has shifted, the record low before those two years was 50%, and that just happened in 2020.
It’s not hard to parse why home-buying sentiment is so low. Interest rates have increased substantially over the past year-plus, curbing affordability, and the median home price sits at $436,800, compared to $329,000 pre-pandemic. For the past few months, housing affordability has been at its lowest point.
The survey not only takes into account the overall health of the housing market, according to Gallup, but also whether or not Americans believe housing is still a good investment. For most years going back to 1978, at least half of Americans have had confidence in that. But that’s changed dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Record-low interest rates early in the pandemic helped to bifurcate financial outcomes for many Americans. Those who could afford to buy—and were able to find a house—lucked out as home values increased significantly; the Federal Reserve finds that homeowners have a median net worth 40 times that of renters.
Quickly rising home prices means owners were able to build equity more quickly over the past few years (mortgage holders saw their equity increase by $1 trillion from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022, according to an analysis from CoreLogic). But they also mean that current prospective buyers are being priced out of ownership completely.
“The sad reality is that homeownership is the best path to generational wealth building for families, and this is now something that is in jeopardy throughout the majority of the U.S.,” says Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara. “Some relief needs to be brought to the market.”
Higher interest rates are especially killer, quickly making an attractive price unaffordable. In fact, the monthly mortgage payment on a $300,000 loan would be $410 more at today’s average rate of 6.58% than it would have been when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, when the average was 4.40%, according to Bankrate.
As a result, younger buyers, in particular, are deferring their home ownership dreams. Almost a quarter of Gen Z and 18% of millennials says they will postpone buying or building a home due to economic uncertainty, compared to 12% of all Americans, according to Northwestern Mutual’s 2023 Planning & Progress Study. Gallup notes that the pessimism permeating the market may keep first-time buyers on the sideline.
“In the past five years, the price for what we used to consider ‘starter homes’ has dramatically increased, and wages [and] earnings have not kept up pace,” says McDermut. And “with rents increasing and home prices increasing, potential home buyers are being squeezed from both ends. It is hard to save for a down payment when rent is taking up half of the monthly income of renters.”
All of that said, real estate is still considered the best long-term investment, according to Gallup: Americans ranked in higher than stocks, bonds, gold, and other assets in the organization’s Economy and Personal Finance poll. Its winning margin is narrowing, though. Around 34% say it’s the best, compared to a record-high 45% last year. That shows how much sentiment can change in a single year.
“Higher interest rates over the past year have cooled the housing market, dampening consumer exuberance about real estate as an investment,” Gallup noted in a separate release.
