美国住房市场或将重新陷入“深度冻结”
立法者们尚未就债务上限达成协议。民主党人希望在没有任何附加条件的情况下提高债务上限，而共和党人则要求削减开支。美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦称，如果国会在未来几周内不能提高债务限额，经济“灾难”将随之而来。
那么，这所谓的灾难将如何在美国的住房市场上演？在5月11日发表的一份报告中，Zillow的高级经济学家杰夫·塔克认为，如果美国不履行债务，抵押贷款利率可能高达8%，这种情况最早6月1日可能就会发生。
不过Zillow的经济学家认为美国债务违约“不太可能”。
尽管如此，Zillow指出，如果美国违约，抵押贷款利率可能在9月达到8.4%，这将使新借款人的抵押贷款支付额增加20%以上。而这就会是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。2022年，抵押贷款利率从3%跃升至6%，此前房价在新冠疫情期间的房地产热潮（Pandemic Housing Boom）中暴涨了41%。两者结合在一起，人们的负担能力会进一步下降，住房泡沫会达到前所未有的水平。Zillow表示，如果抵押贷款利率跃升至8%以上，这将使住房市场重新陷入“深度冻结”。
月度按揭付款6%和8%的之间存在怎样的区别？如果是60万美元的房屋，在支付20%的首付后，6%的月付款大约是2,878美元（不含税和保险）。在完全相同的情况下，8%的月付款将是3,522美元。每月就是644美元的差异。这将让很多买家退出市场，而且那些自去年利率上升以来一直被排挤的人会在市场中处于更加边缘的地位。
“我们预测在这种债务违约的情况下，未来18个月的住房市场演变估计在今年晚些时候，现有房屋销售将相对于无违约基线预测下降多达23%，并且房屋价值在2024年年底可能比无违约情况下的预期低5%。”Zillow表示。
根据Zillow的说法，如果抵押贷款利率达到8%以上，现有房屋销售将从4月的430万套下降到9月的330万套，下降23%。
Zillow称：“对经济和债务市场的任何重大干扰都将对住房市场产生重大影响，让销售情况暴跌并抬高借贷成本，而此时市场才真正开始稳定并从2022年年底的重大冷淡中恢复。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-项曦莹
立法者们尚未就债务上限达成协议。民主党人希望在没有任何附加条件的情况下提高债务上限，而共和党人则要求削减开支。美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦称，如果国会在未来几周内不能提高债务限额，经济“灾难”将随之而来。
那么，这所谓的灾难将如何在美国的住房市场上演？在5月11日发表的一份报告中，Zillow的高级经济学家杰夫·塔克认为，如果美国不履行债务，抵押贷款利率可能高达8%，这种情况最早6月1日可能就会发生。
不过Zillow的经济学家认为美国债务违约“不太可能”。
尽管如此，Zillow指出，如果美国违约，抵押贷款利率可能在9月达到8.4%，这将使新借款人的抵押贷款支付额增加20%以上。而这就会是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。2022年，抵押贷款利率从3%跃升至6%，此前房价在新冠疫情期间的房地产热潮（Pandemic Housing Boom）中暴涨了41%。两者结合在一起，人们的负担能力会进一步下降，住房泡沫会达到前所未有的水平。Zillow表示，如果抵押贷款利率跃升至8%以上，这将使住房市场重新陷入“深度冻结”。
月度按揭付款6%和8%的之间存在怎样的区别？如果是60万美元的房屋，在支付20%的首付后，6%的月付款大约是2,878美元（不含税和保险）。在完全相同的情况下，8%的月付款将是3,522美元。每月就是644美元的差异。这将让很多买家退出市场，而且那些自去年利率上升以来一直被排挤的人会在市场中处于更加边缘的地位。
“我们预测在这种债务违约的情况下，未来18个月的住房市场演变估计在今年晚些时候，现有房屋销售将相对于无违约基线预测下降多达23%，并且房屋价值在2024年年底可能比无违约情况下的预期低5%。”Zillow表示。
根据Zillow的说法，如果抵押贷款利率达到8%以上，现有房屋销售将从4月的430万套下降到9月的330万套，下降23%。
Zillow称：“对经济和债务市场的任何重大干扰都将对住房市场产生重大影响，让销售情况暴跌并抬高借贷成本，而此时市场才真正开始稳定并从2022年年底的重大冷淡中恢复。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-项曦莹
Lawmakers have yet to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling. Democrats want to raise it, without any strings attached, and Republicans are calling for spending cuts. If Congress fails to raise the limit in the coming weeks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claims, economic “calamity” would ensue.
So how would that so-called calamity play out in the U.S. housing market? In a report published on May 11, Zillow’s senior economist Jeff Tucker argues that mortgage rates could top 8% if the U.S. defaults on its debts—which could happen as early as June 1.
Zillow’s economist does acknowledge that a U.S. default is “unlikely.”
Nonetheless, if the U.S. defaults on its debts, Zillow says, mortgage rates could reach 8.4% by September, which would send mortgage payments up for new borrowers up over 20%. And that couldn’t come at a worse time. Mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 6% in 2022, following home prices that skyrocketed 41% during the Pandemic Housing Boom. The two, together, have deteriorated affordability, bringing it to levels not seen since the housing bubble. If mortgage rates were to jump to over 8%, Zillow says that would send the housing market back into a “deep freeze.”
Let’s take a look at the difference between monthly mortgage payments at 6% versus 8%. On a $600,000 home, after putting 20% down, the monthly payment at 6% would be roughly $2,878 (without taxes and insurance.) With the exact same circumstances but at 8%, the monthly payment would be $3,522. That’s a $644 monthly difference. That would price a lot of buyers out of the market, and keep those who have been sidelined since rates went up last year on the outskirts.
“When we forecast the evolution of the housing market over the next 18 months in the event of such a debt default, we estimate that existing home sales would fall as much as 23% relative to the no-default baseline forecast later this year, and that home values may be 5% lower at the end of 2024 than expected in the no-default scenario,” Zillow says.
According to Zillow, if mortgage rates top 8%, existing home sales would drop 23% from 4.3 million in April to 3.3 million in September.
“Any major disruption to the economy and debt markets will have major repercussions for the housing market, chilling sales and raising borrowing costs, just when the market was beginning to stabilize and recover from the major cooldown of late 2022,” Zillow says.
