美国银行业危机尚未结束，巨额未实现损失是潘多拉魔盒
上月，在大型银行倒闭后，监管部门和政府官员呼吁储户保持冷静，同时坚称美国金融体系和银行系统依旧稳定。然而，有多位专家表示，尽管在经过银行股混乱的几周之后，一切开始尘埃落定，但这场危机可能远未结束，因为银行资产依旧存在问题。
道明证券（TD Securities）全球利率研究负责人普里亚·米斯拉周四接受彭博社采访时表示：“财务压力问题、流动性危机、银行挤兑等，这些问题不会结束。美国银行系统面临的资本问题能否结束？我认为不会。”
硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）和签名银行（Signature Bank）的储户得到了政府保护，而且其他银行几周前高度动荡的股票似乎趋于稳定，更明显的大范围恐慌或许已经平息。但这并不意味着金融系统已经安然无恙，因为银行依旧有数万亿美元的未实现损失。
米斯拉表示：“我认为我们打开了潘多拉魔盒；银行资产负债表上依旧有巨额未实现损失。”如果银行开始出现资产负债表问题，担心自己的财务状况不稳定，可能会导致银行缩小贷款规模，提高贷款成本，最终引发经济学家和政府官员们几周来不断警告的可怕的信贷紧缩。
她说到：“无论[银行]不得不剥离资产还是进行募资，或者两者同时执行，这都会影响贷款标准。”
未实现损失是指持有价格下降但尚未出售的银行资产产生的账面损失，在出售时资产价值下降，则未实现损失将变成“实现”损失。未实现损失是硅谷银行倒闭的罪魁祸首之一。硅谷银行持有大量长期政府债券，由于美联储在过去一年突然从近零利率转变为高利率环境，导致债券价值大幅下降。硅谷银行在3月初宣布，预计出售投资将亏损18亿美元，这成为银行挤兑的导火索，最终导致银行破产。
硅谷银行在破产前备受管理不善问题的困扰，包括在破产前八个月始终没有任命首席风险官。但许多银行甚至大多数银行可能都面临类似问题。纽约大学（New York University）本月发表的一份报告称，截至去年年底，美国所有银行的未实现损失金额高达1.7万亿美元。
米斯拉表示，更严格的贷款标准可能影响经济，但这将在何时发生以及哪些市场和行业将受到最严重影响，目前仍是未知数。米斯拉还表示，这可能提高美国在近期内陷入经济衰退的概率。几个月来，消费者储蓄一直被作为美国防范经济衰退的“护栏”，但消费者储蓄的规模正在快速缩小，这加剧了美国经济衰退的风险。
她表示：“储蓄缓冲正在被耗尽。而这恰好是银行应该发放贷款的时候。如果银行减少贷款，我认为会加剧货币紧缩。”她还认为，在各种因素的共同影响下，“绝对会导致美国经济硬着陆”。（财富中文网)
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
上月，在大型银行倒闭后，监管部门和政府官员呼吁储户保持冷静，同时坚称美国金融体系和银行系统依旧稳定。然而，有多位专家表示，尽管在经过银行股混乱的几周之后，一切开始尘埃落定，但这场危机可能远未结束，因为银行资产依旧存在问题。
道明证券（TD Securities）全球利率研究负责人普里亚·米斯拉周四接受彭博社采访时表示：“财务压力问题、流动性危机、银行挤兑等，这些问题不会结束。美国银行系统面临的资本问题能否结束？我认为不会。”
硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）和签名银行（Signature Bank）的储户得到了政府保护，而且其他银行几周前高度动荡的股票似乎趋于稳定，更明显的大范围恐慌或许已经平息。但这并不意味着金融系统已经安然无恙，因为银行依旧有数万亿美元的未实现损失。
米斯拉表示：“我认为我们打开了潘多拉魔盒；银行资产负债表上依旧有巨额未实现损失。”如果银行开始出现资产负债表问题，担心自己的财务状况不稳定，可能会导致银行缩小贷款规模，提高贷款成本，最终引发经济学家和政府官员们几周来不断警告的可怕的信贷紧缩。
她说到：“无论[银行]不得不剥离资产还是进行募资，或者两者同时执行，这都会影响贷款标准。”
未实现损失是指持有价格下降但尚未出售的银行资产产生的账面损失，在出售时资产价值下降，则未实现损失将变成“实现”损失。未实现损失是硅谷银行倒闭的罪魁祸首之一。硅谷银行持有大量长期政府债券，由于美联储在过去一年突然从近零利率转变为高利率环境，导致债券价值大幅下降。硅谷银行在3月初宣布，预计出售投资将亏损18亿美元，这成为银行挤兑的导火索，最终导致银行破产。
硅谷银行在破产前备受管理不善问题的困扰，包括在破产前八个月始终没有任命首席风险官。但许多银行甚至大多数银行可能都面临类似问题。纽约大学（New York University）本月发表的一份报告称，截至去年年底，美国所有银行的未实现损失金额高达1.7万亿美元。
米斯拉表示，更严格的贷款标准可能影响经济，但这将在何时发生以及哪些市场和行业将受到最严重影响，目前仍是未知数。米斯拉还表示，这可能提高美国在近期内陷入经济衰退的概率。几个月来，消费者储蓄一直被作为美国防范经济衰退的“护栏”，但消费者储蓄的规模正在快速缩小，这加剧了美国经济衰退的风险。
她表示：“储蓄缓冲正在被耗尽。而这恰好是银行应该发放贷款的时候。如果银行减少贷款，我认为会加剧货币紧缩。”她还认为，在各种因素的共同影响下，“绝对会导致美国经济硬着陆”。（财富中文网)
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Regulators and government officials are urging calm in the wake of this month’s major bank failures, while insisting that the U.S. financial and banking system remains stable. But even if the dust is starting to settle after a chaotic few weeks for bank stocks, the crisis may not be over yet as bank assets could still be in trouble, according to some experts.
“Financial stress issues, the liquidity crisis, the bank runs, that can stop. Will the capital issues that the U.S. banking system faces, will that go away? I would argue it doesn’t,” Priya Misra, head of global rates research at TD Securities, said in an interview with Bloomberg Thursday.
With Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank depositors protected by the government, and other bank stocks that were extremely shaky a few weeks ago seemingly stabilizing, the more overt contagion fears may have been put to bed. But that doesn’t mean the financial system is safe just yet, as banks are still sitting on trillions of dollars in unrealized losses.
“I think you’ve opened a Pandora’s box; there are massive unrealized losses sitting on bank balance sheets,” Misra said. If banks start running into balance sheet issues and worrying about being in a strong financial position, it could potentially lead to smaller and more expensive loans, sparking the dreaded credit crunch that economists and government officials have been warning about for weeks.
“Either [banks are] going to have to shed assets or raise capital or some combination of both, and that’s going to impact lending standards,” she said.
Unrealized losses are paper losses affecting bank assets that have decreased in price, but have not yet been sold, which would “realize” that the asset has diminished in value. Unrealized losses were one of the culprits behind SVB’s downfall, as the bank possessed large holdings of long-term government bonds that became worth significantly less because of the Federal Reserve’s abrupt shift from near-zero interest rates to a high-rate environment over the past year. SVB announced it was expecting a $1.8 billion loss on sales of its investments in early March, a catalyst behind the bank run that eventually led to the bank’s collapse.
SVB was plagued with mismanagement issues before failing, including lacking an official chief risk officer for the eight months before its collapse. But many, if not most, other banks could be facing similar issues. Unrealized losses at U.S. banks may have totaled as much as $1.7 trillion by the end of last year, according to a New York University paper published this month.
Misra said tighter lending standards are likely to have an impact on the economy, but the unknown is when that will happen and which markets and sectors will be hardest hit. It could all add up to a higher likelihood of a recession hitting soon, aggravated by the rapidly shrinking pool of consumer savings that has been Americans’ guardrail against a recession for months, Misra added.
“That savings buffer is running down. This is exactly when banks should be making loans. And if the banks are actually stepping back I think it adds to the monetary tightening,” she said, adding that the combination of circumstances is “absolutely going to result in a hard landing” for the economy.
