美联储再次加息50个点，并暗示将进一步加息
美联储放慢了快速加息的步伐，同时表明，由于各国央行行长寻求确保通胀持续降温，目前处于2007年以来最高水平的借贷成本的升幅将超过投资者预期。
联邦公开市场委员会将基准利率上调50个基点，至4.25%至4.5%的目标区间。根据他们的预测中值，政策制定者预计明年年底的利率将为5.1%，然后在2024年下调至4.1%，高于此前预测的水平。
鹰派预测有可能冲击金融市场，对美联储将很快暂停加息的猜测，在一定程度上改善了金融环境。自鲍威尔上个月暗示政策即将转变以来，股票上涨，而抵押贷款利率和美元下跌。
在该决定公布之前，投资者押注利率将在5月达到4.8%左右，随后在今年下半年降息50个基点，反映出这样的一种观点：美联储将被迫改变政策以应对经济疲软和通胀下降。
相反，美联储官员在周三表述其立场坚定。
联邦公开市场委员会在声明中表示:“委员会预计，为了达到足以限制通货膨胀率在一段时间内恢复到2%的货币政策立场，持续提高目标区间将是适当的。”联邦公开市场委员会在声明中重复了之前的措辞。
投票是一致通过的。
国债收益率上升，标普500指数回吐日内涨幅，美元指数日内跌幅收窄。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30在华盛顿举行新闻发布会，此前他曾暗示计划适度加息，同时强调紧缩的步伐不如高点和利率处于高位的持续时间那么重要。
此前，美联储连续4次加息75个基点，这波加息的速度是自保罗•沃尔克（Paul Volcker）在上世纪80年代领导美联储以来最快的。
消费者物价涨幅从今年早些时候的40年高点开始出现更为明显的放缓。但越来越多的经济学家预计，美联储的激进行动将使美国经济在明年陷入衰退。
这种担忧引起了议员们的批评，民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）、伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）和谢尔顿·怀特豪斯（Sheldon Whitehouse）警告称，加息可能会“让经济放缓”。
官员们给出了更明确的信号，表明他们预计加息将对经济产生影响。根据周三发布的预测中值，他们下调了2023年的增长预测，预计增幅为0.5%。他们将2022年的GDP预测略微上调至0.5%。央行行长将明年的失业率预期从11月份的3.7%上调至4.6%。
利率预测的分布也偏高，19名官员中有7人预计明年利率将超过5.25%。
美联储官员上调了他们首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出指数的主要和核心读数的估计值。他们现在预计2023年的个人消费支出为3.1%，而9月份的估计为2.8%，而明年的核心消费支出（不包括食品和能源）可能为3.5%。
周三公布的举措为美国央行充满挑战的一年画上了句点。为了应对不断飙升的价格压力，美联储最初在收紧政策方面行动迟缓。
自3月份将利率从接近零的水平上调以来，美联储一直在积极采取行动，以跟上形势的变化，同时保留了实现软着陆、避免失业率大幅上升的希望。
官员们正寻求将增长放缓至低于其长期趋势的水平，以为劳动力市场降温——职位空缺仍远远高于美国失业人数——并减轻了远高于2%目标的物价压力。
官员们周二得到了一些好消息，政府数据显示，在截至11月的一年里，消费者物价指数上涨7.1%，为今年最低水平。
即便如此，鲍威尔一再表示，他愿意让经济遭受一些痛苦，以降低通胀，避免重蹈上世纪70年代美联储过早放松货币政策的覆辙。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
美联储放慢了快速加息的步伐，同时表明，由于各国央行行长寻求确保通胀持续降温，目前处于2007年以来最高水平的借贷成本的升幅将超过投资者预期。
联邦公开市场委员会将基准利率上调50个基点，至4.25%至4.5%的目标区间。根据他们的预测中值，政策制定者预计明年年底的利率将为5.1%，然后在2024年下调至4.1%，高于此前预测的水平。
鹰派预测有可能冲击金融市场，对美联储将很快暂停加息的猜测，在一定程度上改善了金融环境。自鲍威尔上个月暗示政策即将转变以来，股票上涨，而抵押贷款利率和美元下跌。
在该决定公布之前，投资者押注利率将在5月达到4.8%左右，随后在今年下半年降息50个基点，反映出这样的一种观点：美联储将被迫改变政策以应对经济疲软和通胀下降。
相反，美联储官员在周三表述其立场坚定。
联邦公开市场委员会在声明中表示:“委员会预计，为了达到足以限制通货膨胀率在一段时间内恢复到2%的货币政策立场，持续提高目标区间将是适当的。”联邦公开市场委员会在声明中重复了之前的措辞。
投票是一致通过的。
国债收益率上升，标普500指数回吐日内涨幅，美元指数日内跌幅收窄。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30在华盛顿举行新闻发布会，此前他曾暗示计划适度加息，同时强调紧缩的步伐不如高点和利率处于高位的持续时间那么重要。
此前，美联储连续4次加息75个基点，这波加息的速度是自保罗•沃尔克（Paul Volcker）在上世纪80年代领导美联储以来最快的。
消费者物价涨幅从今年早些时候的40年高点开始出现更为明显的放缓。但越来越多的经济学家预计，美联储的激进行动将使美国经济在明年陷入衰退。
这种担忧引起了议员们的批评，民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）、伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）和谢尔顿·怀特豪斯（Sheldon Whitehouse）警告称，加息可能会“让经济放缓”。
官员们给出了更明确的信号，表明他们预计加息将对经济产生影响。根据周三发布的预测中值，他们下调了2023年的增长预测，预计增幅为0.5%。他们将2022年的GDP预测略微上调至0.5%。央行行长将明年的失业率预期从11月份的3.7%上调至4.6%。
利率预测的分布也偏高，19名官员中有7人预计明年利率将超过5.25%。
美联储官员上调了他们首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出指数的主要和核心读数的估计值。他们现在预计2023年的个人消费支出为3.1%，而9月份的估计为2.8%，而明年的核心消费支出（不包括食品和能源）可能为3.5%。
周三公布的举措为美国央行充满挑战的一年画上了句点。为了应对不断飙升的价格压力，美联储最初在收紧政策方面行动迟缓。
自3月份将利率从接近零的水平上调以来，美联储一直在积极采取行动，以跟上形势的变化，同时保留了实现软着陆、避免失业率大幅上升的希望。
官员们正寻求将增长放缓至低于其长期趋势的水平，以为劳动力市场降温——职位空缺仍远远高于美国失业人数——并减轻了远高于2%目标的物价压力。
官员们周二得到了一些好消息，政府数据显示，在截至11月的一年里，消费者物价指数上涨7.1%，为今年最低水平。
即便如此，鲍威尔一再表示，他愿意让经济遭受一些痛苦，以降低通胀，避免重蹈上世纪70年代美联储过早放松货币政策的覆辙。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES
The Federal Reserve downshifted its rapid pace of interest-rate hikes while signaling that borrowing costs, now the highest since 2007, will rise more than investors anticipate as central bankers seek to ensure inflation keeps cooling.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25% to 4.5% target range. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, according to their median forecast, before being cut to 4.1% in 2024 — a higher level than previously indicated.
The hawkish projections have the potential to jolt financial markets, where speculation that the Fed would soon pause its hikes has contributed to easier financial conditions. Stocks have risen, while mortgage rates and the dollar have fallen since Powell last month suggested a policy shift was coming.
Investors prior to the decision bet rates would reach about 4.8% in May, followed by cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of the year – reflecting views that the Fed would be forced to shift in response to a weaker economy and falling inflation.
Instead, Fed officials stood firm on Wednesday.
“The committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time,” the FOMC said in its statement, repeating language it has used in previous communications.
The vote was unanimous.
Treasury yields rose and the S&P 500 index gave up the day’s gains and the dollar index pared losses on the day.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington, had previously signaled plans to moderate hikes, while emphasizing that the pace of tightening is less significant than the peak and the duration of rates at a high level.
The decision follows four consecutive 75 basis-point hikes that have boosted rates at the fastest pace since Paul Volcker led the central bank in the 1980s.
Consumer-price increases have begun a more pronounced slowdown from their 40-year high earlier this year. But a growing cadre of economists expect the Fed’s aggressive action to tip the US into recession next year.
Such concerns have drawn lawmaker criticism, with Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Sheldon Whitehouse warning that rate hikes risk “slowing the economy to a crawl.”
Officials gave a clearer sign that they expect higher rates to impact the economy. They cut their 2023 growth forecasts, seeing expansion of 0.5%, according to median projections released Wednesday. They raised their estimate for 2022 GDP slightly to 0.5%. The central bankers increased their projection for the unemployment rate next year to 4.6% from its 3.7% level in November.
The distribution of rate forecasts also skewed higher, with seven of 19 officials seeing rates above 5.25% next year.
Fed officials raised their estimates for the main and core readings of their preferred inflation gauge, the index for personal consumption expenditures. They now see PCE at 3.1% in 2023 compared with a September estimate of 2.8%, while core — which excludes food and energy — may be 3.5% for next year.
Wednesday’s move caps a challenging year for the US central bank which was initially slow to begin tightening policy in response to surging price pressures.
Since lifting rates from near zero in March, the Fed has moved aggressively to catch up, while preserving hope it can deliver a soft landing that avoids a dramatic surge in unemployment.
Officials are seeking to slow growth to below its long-term trend to cool the labor market — with job openings still far above the number of unemployed Americans — and reduce pressure on prices that are running well above their 2% target.
Officials got some good news Tuesday when government data showed consumer prices rose 7.1% in the year ending November, the lowest rate this year.
Even so, Powell has repeatedly said he’s willing for the economy to suffer some pain to lower inflation and avoid the mistakes of the 1970s when the Fed prematurely loosened monetary policy.
