房价回调加剧，明年美国楼市会怎么走？
任何时候美联储进入对抗通胀模式，美国房地产市场就会变得脆弱。但是，当美国房价在短短两年内飙升43%之后进行加息，后果将更加严重。
当然，这就是我们现在所看到的情况。尽管人口结构很有利，库存水平紧张，可负担性方面存在压力——抵押贷款利率飙升加上房价泡沫——正开始压低房价。事实上，上周我们了解到，凯斯-席勒房价指数显示，美国房价自2012年以来首次出现环比下跌。
在全国范围内，由于抵押贷款利率为6%，美国房地产市场正趋于平衡。在疫情期间的房地产热潮中，美国房地产市场的抵押贷款利率定为3%。但我们仍处于早期阶段。而且，持续进行的房价修正还没有影响到所有市场：5月至8月间，圣何塞的房价下跌了10.6%，而奥兰多的房价上涨了2%。
为了更好地了解美国房地产市场低迷的下一步走向，以及房价修正是否会很快冲击更多市场，《财富》杂志联系了Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫（Ali Wolf）。当她不在全国各地与房屋建筑商交谈时，她就会向白宫提供有关住房问题的建议。
以下是《财富》杂志对阿里·沃尔夫的采访。
《财富》杂志：随着数据出炉，很明显，美国许多市场的房价都在下跌。在一些地方，下跌幅度相当大。你认为房价下跌会持续到2023年吗?
沃尔夫：我们还没有看到全国各地的房价普遍下降，但有一些市场的房价已经开始下降，我们预计在接下来的几个月里，美国更多的大都市都会出现这种情况。只要利率保持在高位，消费者需求仍然疲软，预计2023年房价将出现回调。
哪些类型的市场是最脆弱的?
最脆弱的市场包括：（1）那些因为混合型工作模式而导致房价大幅上涨的市场，如博伊西、拉斯维加斯和丹佛。（2）没有当地就业基础来支撑较高房价的市场（换句话说，就是那些房价和收入不匹配的市场），如纳什维尔和佛罗里达州的部分地区。（3）住房库存迅速上升的市场，如凤凰城和奥斯汀。
为什么奥斯汀、博伊西和凤凰城这样的市场转变如此之快？
奥斯汀、博伊西和凤凰城等市场的房地产热潮是全美最早、最火爆的。创纪录的低抵押贷款利率，加上疫情带来的生活方式的改变，包括居家办公和搬迁的增加，导致住房需求急剧上升，而供应却无法跟上。
那些从加利福尼亚州和华盛顿等地搬迁过来的人能够利用从成本较高的市场出售房屋获得的房屋净值，并将这些资金用于在这些相对更实惠的市场购买新房。搬迁过来的买家发现这些市场与他们搬出的地方相比非常实惠，这对本地买家不利。
这些市场认为，供需失衡是如此严重且长期存在，以至于市场永远不会过热。为买房而疯狂的购房者几乎愿意支付任何价格来买房。投资者和炒房者认为，这些市场时机已经成熟。这种心态导致房价大幅上涨。
然而，随着利率在2022年初上升，现实情况开始发挥作用。房价升值正在放缓，并不是所有挂牌的房屋在上线一天内都能以高于标价的价格出售。房屋需求放缓之际，恰逢一些在建的新房开始上市，而二手房库存迅速增加，因为卖家试图把握他们认为房价达到峰值的时机。
您预计抵押贷款利率接近7%时会对房地产市场产生怎样的影响？在抵押贷款利率为5%时，房价修正已经在进行。我们是否应该预期抵押贷款利率为6.5%-7%时，这种情况会更严重？
住房可负担性是由很多因素驱动的，但两大关键因素是房价和抵押贷款利率。我们刚刚经历了美国历史上一个独特的时期，不断上涨的房价被创纪录的低利率所抵消。廉价融资成本有助于控制月供。
不过，自今年年初以来，利率大幅上升，给住房可负担性带来了压力。当利率从3%上升到4%时，过高的房价让购房者望而却步，而每增加100个基点，就会使数百万美国人因房价过高而无法获得住房所有权。
如果抵押贷款利率在较长一段时间内保持高位，我们预计住房需求将保持疲软，新屋建设将受到限制，全国各地的房价将出现回调。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
任何时候美联储进入对抗通胀模式，美国房地产市场就会变得脆弱。但是，当美国房价在短短两年内飙升43%之后进行加息，后果将更加严重。
当然，这就是我们现在所看到的情况。尽管人口结构很有利，库存水平紧张，可负担性方面存在压力——抵押贷款利率飙升加上房价泡沫——正开始压低房价。事实上，上周我们了解到，凯斯-席勒房价指数显示，美国房价自2012年以来首次出现环比下跌。
在全国范围内，由于抵押贷款利率为6%，美国房地产市场正趋于平衡。在疫情期间的房地产热潮中，美国房地产市场的抵押贷款利率定为3%。但我们仍处于早期阶段。而且，持续进行的房价修正还没有影响到所有市场：5月至8月间，圣何塞的房价下跌了10.6%，而奥兰多的房价上涨了2%。
为了更好地了解美国房地产市场低迷的下一步走向，以及房价修正是否会很快冲击更多市场，《财富》杂志联系了Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫（Ali Wolf）。当她不在全国各地与房屋建筑商交谈时，她就会向白宫提供有关住房问题的建议。
以下是《财富》杂志对阿里·沃尔夫的采访。
《财富》杂志：随着数据出炉，很明显，美国许多市场的房价都在下跌。在一些地方，下跌幅度相当大。你认为房价下跌会持续到2023年吗?
沃尔夫：我们还没有看到全国各地的房价普遍下降，但有一些市场的房价已经开始下降，我们预计在接下来的几个月里，美国更多的大都市都会出现这种情况。只要利率保持在高位，消费者需求仍然疲软，预计2023年房价将出现回调。
哪些类型的市场是最脆弱的?
最脆弱的市场包括：（1）那些因为混合型工作模式而导致房价大幅上涨的市场，如博伊西、拉斯维加斯和丹佛。（2）没有当地就业基础来支撑较高房价的市场（换句话说，就是那些房价和收入不匹配的市场），如纳什维尔和佛罗里达州的部分地区。（3）住房库存迅速上升的市场，如凤凰城和奥斯汀。
为什么奥斯汀、博伊西和凤凰城这样的市场转变如此之快？
奥斯汀、博伊西和凤凰城等市场的房地产热潮是全美最早、最火爆的。创纪录的低抵押贷款利率，加上疫情带来的生活方式的改变，包括居家办公和搬迁的增加，导致住房需求急剧上升，而供应却无法跟上。
那些从加利福尼亚州和华盛顿等地搬迁过来的人能够利用从成本较高的市场出售房屋获得的房屋净值，并将这些资金用于在这些相对更实惠的市场购买新房。搬迁过来的买家发现这些市场与他们搬出的地方相比非常实惠，这对本地买家不利。
这些市场认为，供需失衡是如此严重且长期存在，以至于市场永远不会过热。为买房而疯狂的购房者几乎愿意支付任何价格来买房。投资者和炒房者认为，这些市场时机已经成熟。这种心态导致房价大幅上涨。
然而，随着利率在2022年初上升，现实情况开始发挥作用。房价升值正在放缓，并不是所有挂牌的房屋在上线一天内都能以高于标价的价格出售。房屋需求放缓之际，恰逢一些在建的新房开始上市，而二手房库存迅速增加，因为卖家试图把握他们认为房价达到峰值的时机。
您预计抵押贷款利率接近7%时会对房地产市场产生怎样的影响？在抵押贷款利率为5%时，房价修正已经在进行。我们是否应该预期抵押贷款利率为6.5%-7%时，这种情况会更严重？
住房可负担性是由很多因素驱动的，但两大关键因素是房价和抵押贷款利率。我们刚刚经历了美国历史上一个独特的时期，不断上涨的房价被创纪录的低利率所抵消。廉价融资成本有助于控制月供。
不过，自今年年初以来，利率大幅上升，给住房可负担性带来了压力。当利率从3%上升到4%时，过高的房价让购房者望而却步，而每增加100个基点，就会使数百万美国人因房价过高而无法获得住房所有权。
如果抵押贷款利率在较长一段时间内保持高位，我们预计住房需求将保持疲软，新屋建设将受到限制，全国各地的房价将出现回调。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Anytime the Federal Reserve moves into inflation-fighting mode, the U.S. housing market is going to be vulnerable. But when those interest rate hikes come after U.S. home prices soared 43% in just over two years, the consequences will be even more pronounced.
That, of course, is what we’re seeing now. Despite favorable demographics and tight inventory levels, pressured affordability—spiked mortgage rates coupled with frothy home prices—is beginning to push home prices lower. In fact, this week we learned that U.S. home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted its first month-over-month decline since 2012.
Across the country, the U.S. housing market—which got priced to 3% mortgage rates during the Pandemic Housing Boom—is working toward equilibrium in the face of 6% mortgage rates. But we’re still in the early innings. And the ongoing home price correction still hasn’t hit every market: Between May and August, home values in San Jose fell 10.6% while home values grew 2% in Orlando.
To better understand where the U.S. housing downturn heads next—and if the home price correction will soon hit more markets—Fortune reached out to Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. When she’s not traveling around the country speaking to homebuilders, she’s advising the White House on housing matters.
Below is Fortune‘s Q&A with Ali Wolf.
Fortune: As the data rolls in, it’s pretty clear that home prices are falling in many markets across the country. In some places it’s fairly sharp. Do you expect home price declines to continue into 2023?
Wolf: We haven’t seen home prices drop universally across the country, but there are some markets where home prices have started to come down and we expect to see that in more metros across the country in the next handful of months. Corrections in home prices can be expected in 2023 as long as interest rates remain elevated and consumer demand remains slow.
What types of markets are the most vulnerable?
The markets that are the most vulnerable include: 1) Those where home prices rose sharply because of hybrid work, like Boise, Las Vegas, and Denver. 2) Markets that don’t have a local employment base to support the higher home prices (put another way, markets where home prices and incomes are out of whack), like Nashville and parts of Florida. 3) Markets where housing inventory has risen rapidly, like Phoenix and Austin.
Why are markets like Austin, Boise, and Phoenix shifting so fast?
The housing booms seen in markets like Austin, Boise, and Phoenix were among the earliest in the nation and the sharpest. The record-low mortgage interest rates combined with lifestyle changes brought on by the pandemic, including work from home and increased relocations, drove a dramatic uptick in housing demand and supply could not keep pace.
Those relocating from places like California and Washington were able to tap home equity from a sale in the higher cost market and put those funds towards buying a new home in these relatively more affordable markets. Relocation buyers found these markets very affordable compared to where they were moving from at the detriment of local buyers.
There was a belief in these markets that the supply and demand imbalance was so severe and so long standing that the markets could never get overheated. Buyers, frantic to secure a home, were willing to pay almost any price to secure a home. Investors and flippers considered these markets ripe for opportunities. This mentality contributed to the massive run-up in home prices.
As interest rates rose in early 2022, however, reality started to kick in. Home price appreciation was slowing and not every home that was listed was selling for above the list price within a day of coming online. The demand for housing slowed just as some of the new homes under construction started coming online and existing home inventory rapidly increased as sellers tried to time what they believed to be the top of the market.
How do you expect mortgage rates near 7% to impact the housing market? We were already correcting with 5% mortgage rates. Should we expect things to intensify with 6.5%-7% rates?
Housing affordability is driven by many factors, but the two key inputs are home prices and mortgage rates. We just lived through a unique period in American history where rising home prices were offset by record-low interest rates. The cheap financing helped keep the monthly mortgage payment in check.
Interest rates have risen dramatically since the start of the year, though, putting a strain on housing affordability. Buyers were already starting to get priced out of the market when interest rates moved from 3% to 4% and every 100-basis point increase has continued to price millions of Americans out of homeownership.
If mortgage rates remain elevated for an extended period, we expect that housing demand will remain soft, new home construction will be restricted, and home prices will need to adjust downward across the country.
