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经济衰退逼近,普通人如何未雨绸缪?

经济衰退逼近,普通人如何未雨绸缪?

Alicia Adamczyk 2022-08-26
许多人在经济上还没有做好应对衰退的准备。

图片来源:ANDREYPOPOV/GETTY IMAGES

几乎每个美国人都在担心经济衰退即将到来——如果那一刻果真降临,许多人在经济上还没有做好应对准备。

尽管经济衰退尚未正式到来——事实上,强劲的就业市场表明经济仍然向好——但根据消费金融服务公司Bankrate最新发布的一份报告,近70%的美国成年人担心明年年底前可能会发生经济衰退。与此同时,对于经济衰退,只有17%的人表示在经济上“做好了充分的准备。”而超过40%的人透露称,他们现有的财力不足以应对衰退的冲击。

不过,Bankrate的报告也包含一则好消息:绝大多数成年人(74%)正在积极采取措施,为潜在的经济衰退做好财务准备,比如减少随意支出、增加应急和退休储蓄、偿还信用卡债务,并寻找更稳定的收入。

Bankrate的高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克指出,这些都是明智之举。

“很明显,当前的经济状况一直在以一种非常戏剧化的方式,长时间地压制着消费者信心。”哈姆里克表示,创下数十年高点的通胀率已经侵蚀了许多家庭的预算。但“让我感到振奋的是,人们正在采取相当有力的行动来做好万全准备。我们很高兴看到人们正在增加储蓄,以备不时之需,因为众所周知,从历史上看,美国人在财务方面的最大遗憾就是储蓄不够。”

尽管如此,这项调查显示,在那些还没有为经济衰退做好准备的人中,有31%的人也没有采取任何积极举措来改善自身的财务前景。

但你其实可以采取一些简单的步骤来改善这种局面。倘若你对未来的经济衰退忧心忡忡,理财顾问建议你立即行动起来,做好以下这些事情:

1. 加强现金储备

佐治亚州的注册理财规划师尼夫·佩尔绍德称,在不确定的经济环境中,你能够做的最重要的事情之一是尽可能多地存储应急基金。这应该是当务之急。这样一来,你就可以相对轻松地度过潜在的裁员或收入损失影响。

务必要铭记一点:在经济衰退期间,许多公司可能不招人。所以,找到一份新工作所花费的时间可能远超你的预期。许多理财专家建议存储三到六个月的开支,但佩尔绍德更加谨慎。

“单收入家庭至少应该给应急储备金中存上一年的基本开支。”佩尔绍德说,“双收入家庭最起码也应该储存九个月的基本花销。”

但归根结底,你需要决定存多少钱能够让你感到“手中有粮,心中不慌”。不止于此,有了更多的储蓄,你不会火急火燎地抓住第一个工作机会,你就会有更多的时间去寻找适合自己的工作。

佩尔绍德建议列出每月必要和非必要的支出清单。预算紧张的话,不妨考虑削减一些非必要开支来加强你的储蓄。

2. 偿还债务

一旦你有足够的存款,另一个审慎的做法就是偿还高息债务。鉴于持续上扬的利率让债务变得越来越昂贵,这一点就显得愈发重要。

对于像信用卡这样的浮动利率债务尤其如此。信用良好的话,可以考虑用低利息的房屋净值贷款来偿还这些债务,或者将债务余额转到入门利率为0%的信用卡上。

考虑到美联储(Federal Reserve)可能会再次加息,哈姆里克建议人们尽量优先考虑信用卡债务,“尤其是我们知道,越来越多的人正在举债弥补开支缺口。”

学生贷款,尤其是联邦贷款的利率,通常低于其他类型的消费债务。所以,如果你还有其他财务问题,就不一定要把迅速偿还学生贷款作为优先事项。此外,如果你背负私人贷款,你或许能够以较低的利率进行再融资。从长期来看,这可以帮助你节省资金,让你每个月存下更多的钱。

3. 继续为退休金计划供款

如果你不是临近退休,现在似乎是削减退休金供款的好时机。但佛罗里达州的注册理财规划师菲利普·赫茨伯格表示,事实恰恰相反:经济低迷期恰恰是进行长期投资的好时机。

“市场低迷期是动用正现金流以大幅折价购买股票的黄金机会。”赫茨伯格说,“切不可在一时冲动之下卖掉价值下跌的退休账户股票。错过股市复苏可能会损害投资业绩。”

事实上,如果财力允许的话,增加对个人退休账户或401(k)等享有税收优惠的账户的供款,是一个特别好的举措。

4. 考虑换工作

话说回来,许多人或许没有经济能力去存储更多的钱或削减开支,但他们仍然担心可能到来的衰退。

倘如此,Bankrate的哈姆里克指出,低失业率表明现在仍然是找工作的好时机。跳槽能够带来回报:根据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)发布的一份报告,剔除通胀因素后,在2021年4月至2022年3月期间跳槽的员工中,有多达60%的人薪资上涨。而在同一时期留在同一家雇主的员工中,只有47%的人薪资上涨。

“只要就业市场保持稳定,或者像现在这样坚挺——这一幕可能不会永远持续下去——有意跳槽的人仍然有机会找到好工作。”哈姆里克说。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

几乎每个美国人都在担心经济衰退即将到来——如果那一刻果真降临,许多人在经济上还没有做好应对准备。

尽管经济衰退尚未正式到来——事实上,强劲的就业市场表明经济仍然向好——但根据消费金融服务公司Bankrate最新发布的一份报告,近70%的美国成年人担心明年年底前可能会发生经济衰退。与此同时,对于经济衰退,只有17%的人表示在经济上“做好了充分的准备。”而超过40%的人透露称,他们现有的财力不足以应对衰退的冲击。

不过,Bankrate的报告也包含一则好消息:绝大多数成年人(74%)正在积极采取措施,为潜在的经济衰退做好财务准备,比如减少随意支出、增加应急和退休储蓄、偿还信用卡债务,并寻找更稳定的收入。

Bankrate的高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克指出,这些都是明智之举。

“很明显,当前的经济状况一直在以一种非常戏剧化的方式,长时间地压制着消费者信心。”哈姆里克表示,创下数十年高点的通胀率已经侵蚀了许多家庭的预算。但“让我感到振奋的是,人们正在采取相当有力的行动来做好万全准备。我们很高兴看到人们正在增加储蓄,以备不时之需,因为众所周知,从历史上看,美国人在财务方面的最大遗憾就是储蓄不够。”

尽管如此,这项调查显示,在那些还没有为经济衰退做好准备的人中,有31%的人也没有采取任何积极举措来改善自身的财务前景。

但你其实可以采取一些简单的步骤来改善这种局面。倘若你对未来的经济衰退忧心忡忡,理财顾问建议你立即行动起来,做好以下这些事情:

1. 加强现金储备

佐治亚州的注册理财规划师尼夫·佩尔绍德称,在不确定的经济环境中,你能够做的最重要的事情之一是尽可能多地存储应急基金。这应该是当务之急。这样一来,你就可以相对轻松地度过潜在的裁员或收入损失影响。

务必要铭记一点:在经济衰退期间,许多公司可能不招人。所以,找到一份新工作所花费的时间可能远超你的预期。许多理财专家建议存储三到六个月的开支,但佩尔绍德更加谨慎。

“单收入家庭至少应该给应急储备金中存上一年的基本开支。”佩尔绍德说,“双收入家庭最起码也应该储存九个月的基本花销。”

但归根结底,你需要决定存多少钱能够让你感到“手中有粮,心中不慌”。不止于此,有了更多的储蓄,你不会火急火燎地抓住第一个工作机会,你就会有更多的时间去寻找适合自己的工作。

佩尔绍德建议列出每月必要和非必要的支出清单。预算紧张的话,不妨考虑削减一些非必要开支来加强你的储蓄。

2. 偿还债务

一旦你有足够的存款,另一个审慎的做法就是偿还高息债务。鉴于持续上扬的利率让债务变得越来越昂贵,这一点就显得愈发重要。

对于像信用卡这样的浮动利率债务尤其如此。信用良好的话,可以考虑用低利息的房屋净值贷款来偿还这些债务,或者将债务余额转到入门利率为0%的信用卡上。

考虑到美联储(Federal Reserve)可能会再次加息,哈姆里克建议人们尽量优先考虑信用卡债务,“尤其是我们知道,越来越多的人正在举债弥补开支缺口。”

学生贷款,尤其是联邦贷款的利率,通常低于其他类型的消费债务。所以,如果你还有其他财务问题,就不一定要把迅速偿还学生贷款作为优先事项。此外,如果你背负私人贷款,你或许能够以较低的利率进行再融资。从长期来看,这可以帮助你节省资金,让你每个月存下更多的钱。

3. 继续为退休金计划供款

如果你不是临近退休,现在似乎是削减退休金供款的好时机。但佛罗里达州的注册理财规划师菲利普·赫茨伯格表示,事实恰恰相反:经济低迷期恰恰是进行长期投资的好时机。

“市场低迷期是动用正现金流以大幅折价购买股票的黄金机会。”赫茨伯格说,“切不可在一时冲动之下卖掉价值下跌的退休账户股票。错过股市复苏可能会损害投资业绩。”

事实上,如果财力允许的话,增加对个人退休账户或401(k)等享有税收优惠的账户的供款,是一个特别好的举措。

4. 考虑换工作

话说回来,许多人或许没有经济能力去存储更多的钱或削减开支,但他们仍然担心可能到来的衰退。

倘如此,Bankrate的哈姆里克指出,低失业率表明现在仍然是找工作的好时机。跳槽能够带来回报:根据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)发布的一份报告,剔除通胀因素后,在2021年4月至2022年3月期间跳槽的员工中,有多达60%的人薪资上涨。而在同一时期留在同一家雇主的员工中,只有47%的人薪资上涨。

“只要就业市场保持稳定,或者像现在这样坚挺——这一幕可能不会永远持续下去——有意跳槽的人仍然有机会找到好工作。”哈姆里克说。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

Just about every American is worried about an imminent recession—and many aren’t financially ready for a downturn if it does come.

Though a recession has not been officially declared—and a strong job market indicates the opposite—nearly seven in 10 U.S. adults are worried about the possibility of one before the end of next year, according to a new report from Bankrate. At the same time, just 17% say they are “very prepared” financially for a recession, while more than 40% say their finances are not in order to weather one.

The good news: The vast majority of adults (74%) say they are actively taking steps to prepare their finances for a potential downturn, according to Bankrate. That includes spending less on discretionary purchases, adding to their emergency and retirement savings, paying down credit card debt, and looking for more stable income.

Those are all smart moves to make if possible, says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

“Clearly the current economic conditions have been weighing on consumer sentiment in a very dramatic way for a long time,” says Hamrick, noting that decades-high inflation has been taking a toll on many household budgets. But “I am heartened in a way that people are taking pretty strong actions to prepare. We love the fact that they’re saving more for emergencies…because we see that historically Americans’ biggest financial regrets are not saving enough.”

That said, 31% of those who say they are not prepared for a recession are also not actively doing anything to improve their financial outlook, according to the survey.

But there are easy steps to take. Here’s what financial advisors recommend doing now if you’re worried about a recession in the future.

1. Build up cash reserves

One of the most important things you can do in the midst of an uncertain economy is to save as much as you can in your emergency fund, says Niv Persaud, a Georgia-based certified financial planner. This should be your top priority, so you can more easily ride out a potential layoff or loss of income.

Remember: During a recession, many companies may not be hiring. So it could take you longer to find a new job than you might expect. While many financial experts recommend having three to six months’ worth of expenses saved, Persaud is more cautious.

“Single-income households should have at least one year of essential expenses saved in their emergency reserve,” says Persaud. “Dual-income households should save at least nine months of essential expenses.”

Ultimately, though, you need to decide how much savings makes you feel most comfortable. That said, having more saved could help ensure you’re not settling for the first job offer you get, and give you time to look for the right fit.

Persaud recommends making a list of essential and non-essential monthly expenses. If your budget is tight, consider cutting back on a few things on your non-essential list going forward to bolster your savings.

2. Pay down debt

Once you have adequate savings, another prudent move is to pay down high-interest debt. This is even more important as interest rates continue to rise and the debt gets more costly.

This is especially true for variable-rate debt like credit cards. If you have decent credit, you could consider paying off that debt with a lower-interest home equity loan, or transferring the balance to a credit card with 0% introductory rate.

With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates again, Hamrick recommends people try to prioritize credit card debt, “even as we know more individuals are turning to debt to plug the gap in the cost of things.”

Student loans, particularly federal loans, typically have lower interest rates than other types of consumer debt, so it shouldn’t necessarily be a priority to pay those off quickly if you have other financial concerns. That said if you have private loans, you might be able to refinance them at a lower rate, which could save you over the long-term and give you more money each month to put toward savings.

3. Continue contributing to retirement investments

If you’re not nearing retirement, it might seem like an okay time to cut your retirement contributions. But the opposite is actually true, says Philip Herzberg, a Florida-based CFP: A downturn is actually a great time to invest for the long-term.

“Market downturns are a golden opportunity to direct positive cash flow to buy stocks at significantly discounted prices,” says Herzberg. “Do not be tempted to sell retirement account stocks that declined in value. Missing out on a stock market recovery can hurt investment performance.”

In fact, if you can afford to do so, ramping up your contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like an IRA or 401(k) is an especially good move to make.

4. Consider switching jobs

All of that said, many people may not have the financial means to save more or cut their spending, but they are still worried about a possible recession.

If that’s the case, Bankrate’s Hamrick says the low unemployment rate indicates it’s still a good time to look for a better job. Job hopping can pay off: 60% of workers who changed jobs between April 2021 and March of 2022 reported a wage increase, adjusted for inflation, according to a report released by Pew Research Center. Just 47% of workers who stayed at the same employer for that time period reported the same.

“As long as the job market remains firm or as firm as it is—that may not last forever—there’s still an opportunity for people out there if they so choose,” Hamrick says.

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