乌克兰粮食生产正常，但是运不出去
在俄乌冲突爆发并停止粮食出口之前，乌克兰是世界上最大的粮食出口国之一，其收获的小麦占世界总量的11%，玉米占17%。几十年来，它一直被称为欧洲粮仓。
尽管俄罗斯军队封锁了乌克兰的港口，但该国的收成仍在继续增加，大多数粮食都无法从乌克兰运出。据联合国粮食及农业组织称，现在，数百万吨粮食滞留乌克兰，该国的储存能力已达到极限，但世界其他国家却面临饥饿威胁。
联合国粮食及农业组织经济学家约瑟夫·史密贺伯（Josef Schmidhuber）表示，由于海港封锁和基础设施问题，目前有近2500万吨粮食滞留乌克兰，无法运出。
在上周五的新闻发布会上，他警告说乌克兰的“情况近乎怪诞”，谷物正按照常规时间表收割，但无法运出该国。
史密贺伯表示：“[有]近2500万吨粮食可以出口，但由于基础设施问题和港口封锁，这些粮食无法运出。”
他澄清说，到目前为止，俄乌冲突并未对收成产生重大影响，但全球市场越来越难以获得乌克兰的粮食类大宗商品。
史密贺伯解释说，乌克兰的大部分冬季作物都在该国西部种植和收获，远离俄乌冲突的冲击，因此，俄乌冲突并未影响近期的收成。他补充说，按计划，已经种植了约一半的夏季作物，但不确定能收获多少。
史密贺伯说：“未来可能会出现可观的收成。”但他补充说，粮食运出乌克兰的前景仍不确定，尤其是如果黑海港口仍被俄罗斯军队封锁的话。
数月来，乌克兰船只一直被阻止离开黑海港口，联合国世界粮食计划署驻德国办事处主任本周早些时候宣布，目前有近450万吨粮食储存在乌克兰港口的集装箱中，由于海上航线不安全或被占领而无法运出。
据史密贺伯称，乌克兰的粮食运输通常通过海运完成，但现在越来越频繁地通过铁路运出，他说这可能是极其复杂的。由于铁路规格不同，例如一条轨道上的铁轨之间宽度不同，通过火车运出粮食，有时需要卸载粮食并将粮食搬到新车厢上。
据联合国粮食及农业组织称，乌克兰和俄罗斯是世界上一些主要农产品的最大供应国，包括小麦、油菜籽、玉米和葵花籽油。这些关键的全球供应链的中断使得食品价格上涨，加剧了世界上一些最脆弱地区的饥饿问题。
据联合国粮食及农业组织称，还有一些报道称俄罗斯军队一直在抢劫乌克兰的粮食仓库。
史密贺伯表示："有传闻说，俄罗斯军队毁坏了仓库，正在抢夺现有储备粮。"他补充说，还有迹象表明俄罗斯军队也在偷窃农用设备，这可能会危及未来收成。
他说：“粮食被俄罗斯偷走，并通过卡车运往俄罗斯。”
俄乌冲突走向的不确定性，乌克兰有限的粮食储存能力以及俄罗斯军队一直在偷窃农用设备和破坏收成，意味着全球粮食价格——根据联合国粮食及农业组织最新的月度食品价格指数，尤其是谷物和肉类的价格——仍然高度波动。
在上周五发布的最新食品价格指数中，联合国粮食及农业组织宣布，全球食品价格在上月大幅上涨后，4月份有所下降，但史密贺伯强调，这只是小幅下降而已。
联合国在4月份表示，全世界有4500万人营养不良，还有多达2000万人因战争而面临饥荒的风险。据世界银行称，世界高度脆弱地区包括萨赫勒地区和西非国家，这些地区如果爆发战争的话，将加剧饥饿问题。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
在俄乌冲突爆发并停止粮食出口之前，乌克兰是世界上最大的粮食出口国之一，其收获的小麦占世界总量的11%，玉米占17%。几十年来，它一直被称为欧洲粮仓。
尽管俄罗斯军队封锁了乌克兰的港口，但该国的收成仍在继续增加，大多数粮食都无法从乌克兰运出。据联合国粮食及农业组织称，现在，数百万吨粮食滞留乌克兰，该国的储存能力已达到极限，但世界其他国家却面临饥饿威胁。
联合国粮食及农业组织经济学家约瑟夫·史密贺伯（Josef Schmidhuber）表示，由于海港封锁和基础设施问题，目前有近2500万吨粮食滞留乌克兰，无法运出。
在上周五的新闻发布会上，他警告说乌克兰的“情况近乎怪诞”，谷物正按照常规时间表收割，但无法运出该国。
史密贺伯表示：“[有]近2500万吨粮食可以出口，但由于基础设施问题和港口封锁，这些粮食无法运出。”
他澄清说，到目前为止，俄乌冲突并未对收成产生重大影响，但全球市场越来越难以获得乌克兰的粮食类大宗商品。
史密贺伯解释说，乌克兰的大部分冬季作物都在该国西部种植和收获，远离俄乌冲突的冲击，因此，俄乌冲突并未影响近期的收成。他补充说，按计划，已经种植了约一半的夏季作物，但不确定能收获多少。
史密贺伯说：“未来可能会出现可观的收成。”但他补充说，粮食运出乌克兰的前景仍不确定，尤其是如果黑海港口仍被俄罗斯军队封锁的话。
数月来，乌克兰船只一直被阻止离开黑海港口，联合国世界粮食计划署驻德国办事处主任本周早些时候宣布，目前有近450万吨粮食储存在乌克兰港口的集装箱中，由于海上航线不安全或被占领而无法运出。
据史密贺伯称，乌克兰的粮食运输通常通过海运完成，但现在越来越频繁地通过铁路运出，他说这可能是极其复杂的。由于铁路规格不同，例如一条轨道上的铁轨之间宽度不同，通过火车运出粮食，有时需要卸载粮食并将粮食搬到新车厢上。
据联合国粮食及农业组织称，乌克兰和俄罗斯是世界上一些主要农产品的最大供应国，包括小麦、油菜籽、玉米和葵花籽油。这些关键的全球供应链的中断使得食品价格上涨，加剧了世界上一些最脆弱地区的饥饿问题。
据联合国粮食及农业组织称，还有一些报道称俄罗斯军队一直在抢劫乌克兰的粮食仓库。
史密贺伯表示："有传闻说，俄罗斯军队毁坏了仓库，正在抢夺现有储备粮。"他补充说，还有迹象表明俄罗斯军队也在偷窃农用设备，这可能会危及未来收成。
他说：“粮食被俄罗斯偷走，并通过卡车运往俄罗斯。”
俄乌冲突走向的不确定性，乌克兰有限的粮食储存能力以及俄罗斯军队一直在偷窃农用设备和破坏收成，意味着全球粮食价格——根据联合国粮食及农业组织最新的月度食品价格指数，尤其是谷物和肉类的价格——仍然高度波动。
在上周五发布的最新食品价格指数中，联合国粮食及农业组织宣布，全球食品价格在上月大幅上涨后，4月份有所下降，但史密贺伯强调，这只是小幅下降而已。
联合国在4月份表示，全世界有4500万人营养不良，还有多达2000万人因战争而面临饥荒的风险。据世界银行称，世界高度脆弱地区包括萨赫勒地区和西非国家，这些地区如果爆发战争的话，将加剧饥饿问题。（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of grain before the Russian army invaded and halted grain exports, harvesting 11% of the world’s wheat and 17% of its corn. For decades, it’s been referred to as the breadbasket of Europe.
In spite of Russian troops blockading Ukraine’s ports, the country’s harvest has continued, but most crops have been unable to leave Ukraine. Now, millions of tons of grain are sitting idle, and the country’s storage capacity is reaching its limits while the world gets hungrier, according to the UN’s top food agency.
Nearly 25 million tons of grain are currently stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to obstructed seaports and infrastructural issues, said Josef Schmidhuber, an economist with the Food and Agriculture Organization.
Speaking at a press briefing on Friday, he warned of an “almost grotesque situation” in Ukraine, in which grain is being harvested according to regular schedules, but cannot be taken out of the country.
"[There are] nearly 25 million tonnes of grain that could be exported but that cannot leave the country simply because of lack of infrastructure, the blockade of the ports,” Schmidhuber said.
He clarified that the war has so far not had a significant impact on harvests, but it is becoming harder and harder for global markets to access Ukraine’s food commodities.
Schmidhuber explained that most of Ukraine’s winter crops were planted and harvested in the west of the country, far away from the brunt of the fighting and the war did not impact the recent harvest. He added that around half of the planned summer crops are already in the ground, although it is uncertain how much of it will be reaped.
“A considerable crop could be coming in going forward,” Schmidhuber said, but added that the outlook for grains leaving Ukraine remained uncertain, especially if Black Sea ports remained blocked by Russian forces.
Ukrainian ships have been blocked from leaving Black Sea ports for months, and the director of the UN World Food Programme in Germany announced earlier this week that almost 4.5 million tons of grain are currently sitting in containers in Ukrainian ports, unable to leave because of unsafe or occupied sea routes.
Grain shipments from Ukraine are usually done by sea, according to Schmidhuber, but are now being taken out of the country by rail more and more frequently, something he said can be exceedingly more complicated. Grains leaving Ukraine by train can sometimes need to be unloaded and placed on new carriages due to different railway specifications, such as different widths between rails on a single track.
Ukraine and Russia combined are some of the world’s largest suppliers of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, rapeseed, maize, and sunflower oil, according to the FAO. The disruption of these crucial global supply chains has raised food prices and exacerbated hunger issues in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions.
There are also some reports that Russian troops have been looting Ukrainian grain storages, according to the FAO.
“There is anecdotal evidence that Russian troops have destroyed storage capacity and are looting storage grain that is available,” Schmidhuber said, adding that there are also signs Russian troops have been stealing farm equipment as well, potentially putting the productivity of future harvests at risk.
“Grain is being stolen by Russia and transported by trucks into Russia,” he said.
The uncertainty about what direction the war will take, Ukraine’s limited storage capacity for grain, and evidence that Russian troops have been stealing and damaging harvests and farming equipment, means that global food prices—especially those for cereals and meats, according to the FAO’s latest monthly food price index—are still highly volatile.
In its latest food price index, released on Friday, the FAO announced that global food prices decreased in April after a huge jump last month, but Schmidhuber stressed that it was only a small decline.
The UN said in April that 45 million people worldwide suffer from malnourishment, with up to 20 million more at risk of famine because of the war. Highly vulnerable regions of the world where the war is expected to amplify hunger include countries in the Sahel and West Africa, according to the World Bank.
