俄乌冲突短期内不会结束，将引发全球导致经济衰退
一位华尔街顶级策略师认为，随着大宗商品价格暴涨和经济增长停滞，全球经济即将陷入“战争衰退”。
资深投资策略师、研究机构Independent Strategy的总裁大卫·罗奇周五对CNBC表示，他预测普京在短期内不会结束在乌克兰的军事行动，经济的糟糕程度将超出市场预期。
他表示：“俄乌冲突无法解决。这将是一场持久战。双方谈判很难达成任何和平协议。”
本月早些时候，美国及其盟国加强了对俄罗斯的制裁。
但罗奇认为，普京不会愿意以从乌克兰撤军为条件换取减轻制裁的可能性，无论俄罗斯将付出多少经济代价。这意味着西方将俄罗斯踢出国际社会的行动只会加码，未来将演变成全面能源封锁，使全球市场陷入混乱。
罗奇表示：“这场严重的供应侧冲击将蔓延到粮食、能源、金属等许多领域。与此同时，全世界都面临通胀，利率不断上升，当然还有因为疫情导致的中国供应中断，这些问题让市场难以承受。”
正在逼近的“战争衰退”
不止罗奇担心正在逼近的经济衰退。亿万富翁投资者、前美联储官员甚至华尔街大银行都表示，各国央行急于控制通胀大幅上升，而俄乌冲突使通胀变得更加严重，一场经济衰退即将爆发。
但罗奇认为，对俄罗斯的严厉制裁会引发“战争衰退”，这与正常的经济衰退存在许多重要的区别。
他表示：“在正常的经济衰退期间，产出和需求减少，通胀率会随之下降。而在‘战争衰退’期间，产出减少的同时，成本和通胀却在上升。”
罗奇表示，‘战争衰退’将使央行面临极其严峻的形势。央行的管理者将被迫做出选择：如果采取措施缓解通胀会伤害经济，如果任由经济过热，付出的代价则是消费者物价上涨。
他猜想未来6至9个月，央行会继续通过加息控制通胀。这反过来会影响股市，降低经济增长速度，从而导致“战争衰退”。
罗奇认为，经济阵痛最终将变得令央行难以承受，只能降息，但这个过程需要花费更长时间，远远超过市场目前的预期。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
一位华尔街顶级策略师认为，随着大宗商品价格暴涨和经济增长停滞，全球经济即将陷入“战争衰退”。
资深投资策略师、研究机构Independent Strategy的总裁大卫·罗奇周五对CNBC表示，他预测普京在短期内不会结束在乌克兰的军事行动，经济的糟糕程度将超出市场预期。
他表示：“俄乌冲突无法解决。这将是一场持久战。双方谈判很难达成任何和平协议。”
本月早些时候，美国及其盟国加强了对俄罗斯的制裁。
但罗奇认为，普京不会愿意以从乌克兰撤军为条件换取减轻制裁的可能性，无论俄罗斯将付出多少经济代价。这意味着西方将俄罗斯踢出国际社会的行动只会加码，未来将演变成全面能源封锁，使全球市场陷入混乱。
罗奇表示：“这场严重的供应侧冲击将蔓延到粮食、能源、金属等许多领域。与此同时，全世界都面临通胀，利率不断上升，当然还有因为疫情导致的中国供应中断，这些问题让市场难以承受。”
正在逼近的“战争衰退”
不止罗奇担心正在逼近的经济衰退。亿万富翁投资者、前美联储官员甚至华尔街大银行都表示，各国央行急于控制通胀大幅上升，而俄乌冲突使通胀变得更加严重，一场经济衰退即将爆发。
但罗奇认为，对俄罗斯的严厉制裁会引发“战争衰退”，这与正常的经济衰退存在许多重要的区别。
他表示：“在正常的经济衰退期间，产出和需求减少，通胀率会随之下降。而在‘战争衰退’期间，产出减少的同时，成本和通胀却在上升。”
罗奇表示，‘战争衰退’将使央行面临极其严峻的形势。央行的管理者将被迫做出选择：如果采取措施缓解通胀会伤害经济，如果任由经济过热，付出的代价则是消费者物价上涨。
他猜想未来6至9个月，央行会继续通过加息控制通胀。这反过来会影响股市，降低经济增长速度，从而导致“战争衰退”。
罗奇认为，经济阵痛最终将变得令央行难以承受，只能降息，但这个过程需要花费更长时间，远远超过市场目前的预期。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
A top Wall Street strategist believes the global economy is headed for a “war-cession” as commodity prices soar and growth plummets amid the war in Ukraine and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
David Roche, a veteran investment strategist and the president of the institutional research firm Independent Strategy, told CNBC on Friday that he doesn’t see Vladimir Putin ending the war in Ukraine anytime soon—and markets aren’t anticipating just how bad things could get.
“The war in Ukraine is not going to be fixed,” Roche said. “It will be a very long duration. Because the sort of pictures which the public are going to see, the atrocities we discover, prevent any possibility of negotiating with Vladimir Putin. So, by definition, we are looking for a regime change.”
The U.S. and its allies have already ratcheted up sanctions on Russia after mass graves and executed civilians were uncovered in Bucha, outside Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, earlier this month. President Biden went so far as to label Russia’s actions “war crimes” and called for Vladimir Putin to be tried for his actions in the country.
But Putin won’t be willing to trade a withdrawal from Ukraine for the chance at reduced sanctions, no matter the economic costs, Roche said. That means the West’s efforts to segregate Russia from the international community will only increase, moving towards a total energy blockade, and throwing global markets into chaos.
“This is an enormous supply-side shock that will continue in food, in energy, in metals, and I can go on,” Roche said. “At the same time, we’re dealing with inflation worldwide, we’re dealing with rising interest rates…and we’re looking at, of course, supply disruptions in China due to what is happening with COVID…that’s a lot for markets.”
The impending “War-cession”
Roche isn’t alone in his fears of a looming economic downturn. Billionaire investors, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even top Wall Street banks have said that a recession could be on the horizon as central banks rush to control surging inflation that’s only been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.
But Roche argues that strict sanctions against Russia are kicking off a “war-cession,” which is different than the typical recession in some critical ways.
“In a normal recession, output and demand go down, and inflation goes down,” he explained. “In this sort of a recession, a ‘war-cession,’ you actually have output which falls at the same time as costs and inflation rise.”
Roche said the “war-cession” will put central banks in a particularly tough position. Officials will be forced to choose between acting to slow inflation, thereby damaging economic growth, or letting the economy run hot at the cost of rising consumer prices.
He suspects central banks will stick to their campaign to fight inflation by raising interest rates over the next six to nine months. That, in turn, will hurt stocks, reduce economic growth, and help to precipitate a “war-cession.”
Eventually, the economic pain will become too extreme for central banks, and they’ll be forced to cut rates, but that’s going to take a lot longer than markets are predicting at the moment, Roche argued.
