初创公司将遇融资危机，它们应该如何自保？
归因于接近历史低点的利率，在过去15年的大部分时间里，投资者都对私人市场展现出了狂热的投资兴趣。
如今，Alphabet旗下的风投公司Gradient Ventures的达里安·谢拉兹却对这种火热还能够持续多久表示担心。
当前，美国已经正式进入利率将大幅上调的初始阶段，在这种环境下，对高风险资产的投资很可能会出现大规模回撤，这给谢拉兹敲响了警钟。谢拉兹是Gradient Venture的掌门人，该公司主投处于初创期的公司，他向《财富》杂志表示，随着大型投资者开始从风投基金中撤资，私营公司的负责人需要为随之而来的结果做好准备——可能是估值下调，也可能是裁员或者合并。
“重要的是要意识到，形势已经并且将继续逆转。”谢拉兹在3月28日发给公司创始人的电子邮件备忘录中写道，让人回想起红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）在2008年那封现在已经臭名昭著的信《安息吧，黄金时代》（R.I.P. Good Times）。“融资需要的时间会变长，条款也将对企业不利。你越早意识到这一点，越早意识到这是宏观环境的原因，而不是你的问题，活下来的可能性就越高。”
因为不断上涨的通胀风险，关于美联储（Federal Reserve）要加息的新闻已经持续了好几个月，导致从华尔街到硅谷的投资者们都开始做规划，从他们认为风险较高的资产（例如加密货币和科技股）转向更安全的资产（比如债券）。
不过，谢拉兹告诉《财富》杂志，科技股遭到抛售、IPO陷入停滞、私募市场融资活动枯竭，初创公司创始人却对上述种种结果感到困惑。
多年来，企业一直遵循着一条看似可靠的道路：从风投公司筹钱，扩大规模，有望盈利，然后上市。现在，创始人在创业之路上遇到了一些减速带，这让他们开始自问：“我的公司到底出了什么问题？”但实际情况是，宏观经济环境正在从顺风转向逆风——创始人通常不会考虑这些，谢拉兹表示。
谢拉兹预计，这种情况下，最终许多公司将不得不接受比以往更低的估值，因为这种环境将促使更多公司寻找潜在买家。但他也在电子邮件备忘录中写道，如果企业可以将平衡增长和资本效率作为优先事项，那么还是有希望的。
“过去一段时间，感觉遍地都是资本，一夜之间，B轮或更后期的公司就很难筹到资了。”谢拉兹在接受《财富》杂志采访时说，“资本效率提升得越早，就越有可能成功。”
为了在“这个新时代”最大化提高本公司的存活几率，谢拉兹向公司创始人提出了四条建议：
·必须要有能够维持18到24个月生计的资金，“不论你的规模大小”。
·“在你认为有必要之前”就要裁员，并“加倍激励”留下来的员工。
·放慢烧钱的速度。
·向董事会报告“任何可能损害或毁掉公司经营的事情”，并分别制定行动计划。“有些董事会可能不想听到坏消息。”谢拉兹写道，“但你现在必须与其他创始人、高管和董事会成员讨论每一点风险，这样才可以根据需要做出改变，这点很重要。”（财富中文网）
译者：Agatha
归因于接近历史低点的利率，在过去15年的大部分时间里，投资者都对私人市场展现出了狂热的投资兴趣。
如今，Alphabet旗下的风投公司Gradient Ventures的达里安·谢拉兹却对这种火热还能够持续多久表示担心。
当前，美国已经正式进入利率将大幅上调的初始阶段，在这种环境下，对高风险资产的投资很可能会出现大规模回撤，这给谢拉兹敲响了警钟。谢拉兹是Gradient Venture的掌门人，该公司主投处于初创期的公司，他向《财富》杂志表示，随着大型投资者开始从风投基金中撤资，私营公司的负责人需要为随之而来的结果做好准备——可能是估值下调，也可能是裁员或者合并。
“重要的是要意识到，形势已经并且将继续逆转。”谢拉兹在3月28日发给公司创始人的电子邮件备忘录中写道，让人回想起红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）在2008年那封现在已经臭名昭著的信《安息吧，黄金时代》（R.I.P. Good Times）。“融资需要的时间会变长，条款也将对企业不利。你越早意识到这一点，越早意识到这是宏观环境的原因，而不是你的问题，活下来的可能性就越高。”
因为不断上涨的通胀风险，关于美联储（Federal Reserve）要加息的新闻已经持续了好几个月，导致从华尔街到硅谷的投资者们都开始做规划，从他们认为风险较高的资产（例如加密货币和科技股）转向更安全的资产（比如债券）。
不过，谢拉兹告诉《财富》杂志，科技股遭到抛售、IPO陷入停滞、私募市场融资活动枯竭，初创公司创始人却对上述种种结果感到困惑。
多年来，企业一直遵循着一条看似可靠的道路：从风投公司筹钱，扩大规模，有望盈利，然后上市。现在，创始人在创业之路上遇到了一些减速带，这让他们开始自问：“我的公司到底出了什么问题？”但实际情况是，宏观经济环境正在从顺风转向逆风——创始人通常不会考虑这些，谢拉兹表示。
谢拉兹预计，这种情况下，最终许多公司将不得不接受比以往更低的估值，因为这种环境将促使更多公司寻找潜在买家。但他也在电子邮件备忘录中写道，如果企业可以将平衡增长和资本效率作为优先事项，那么还是有希望的。
“过去一段时间，感觉遍地都是资本，一夜之间，B轮或更后期的公司就很难筹到资了。”谢拉兹在接受《财富》杂志采访时说，“资本效率提升得越早，就越有可能成功。”
为了在“这个新时代”最大化提高本公司的存活几率，谢拉兹向公司创始人提出了四条建议：
·必须要有能够维持18到24个月生计的资金，“不论你的规模大小”。
·“在你认为有必要之前”就要裁员，并“加倍激励”留下来的员工。
·放慢烧钱的速度。
·向董事会报告“任何可能损害或毁掉公司经营的事情”，并分别制定行动计划。“有些董事会可能不想听到坏消息。”谢拉兹写道，“但你现在必须与其他创始人、高管和董事会成员讨论每一点风险，这样才可以根据需要做出改变，这点很重要。”（财富中文网）
译者：Agatha
The private markets have become subject to a frenzy of investment interest from investors over the much of the last 15 years thanks in large part to the historic period of near rock-bottom interest rates.
Now, Darian Shirazi of Alphabet-backed Gradient Ventures is raising concerns about how much longer it can last.
With the U.S. officially in the beginning stages of what is expected to be a far higher interest rate environment, a dramatic recalculation away from riskier asset classes is setting off alarm bells for Shirazi, who leads the early-stage-focused venture capital firm and tells Fortune that, with big-scale investors set to start pulling back from venture capital funds, the heads of private companies need to be prepared for the fallout to come with it—whether that be down rounds, layoffs, or consolidation.
"It is important to realize that the tables have and will continue to turn," Shirazi wrote in an emailed memo to company founders on March 28 that harkens back to Sequoia Capital's now-infamous "R.I.P. Good Times" letter from 2008. "Financings will take longer and terms will be less favorable to companies. The sooner you become aware of this dynamic and that it is macro-related and not specific to you, the more likely you will be to survive."
From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, the Federal Reserve's path toward higher interest rates—accelerated largely by the escalating threat of inflation—has been well forecasted for months now, leading investors to begin planning accordingly by moving out what they see as riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks and into safer ones like bonds.
The results, between technology stocks selling off, IPOs coming to a standstill, and fundraising activity drying up in the private markets, have left startup founders puzzled, though, Shirazi tells Fortune.
Companies have for years followed a seemingly tried-and-true track of raising money from venture capitalists, scaling up, hopefully turning a profit, and then going public. Now, founders are finding some speed bumps along the way, leading them to ask, "What's wrong with my company?" But the reality is that the macroeconomic conditions are shifting from a tailwind to a headwind—something that founders don't tend to think about on a daily basis, Shirazi says.
It's a situation that will ultimately force many companies to accept lower valuations than in prior fundraises, Shirazi predicts, as it is one that will prompt more companies to seek out potential buyers. But there is hope, the venture capitalist wrote in the emailed memo, should companies prioritize balancing growth and capital efficiency.
"We went from a period where money was basically everywhere [to one] where suddenly money is very difficult to come by for companies at the series B or later stage," Shirazi tells Fortune. "The sooner you can become more efficient, the more likely you are to succeed."
Shirazi had four pieces of advice for company founders to maximize their chances of survival "in this new era":
·Stockpile between 18 to 24 months of runway, "regardless of your scale."
·Lay people off "sooner than you think you need to" and "strongly incentivize" those that remain.
·Cut the burn rate.
·Talk to the board about "everything that could harm or kill your business" and come up with plans of action for each. "Some boards may not want to hear bad news," Shirazi writes, "but it is important you discuss all risks with your fellow founders, executives, and board members now so you can make changes as needed."
