通货膨胀叠加供应链危机，美国人的购物热情消减了吗？
新冠肺炎的病例激增，再加上新的奥密克戎变异病毒，都为美国的假日季蒙上了阴影。不过即便在此之前，假日期间的经济状况也远不及往年。
美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）公布的消费者价格指数（Consumer Price Index）显示，今年11月的消费者价格指数同比上涨了6.8%，为近40年来最大涨幅。罪魁祸首是通货膨胀和供应链的持续危机。
以下详细介绍经济动荡对今年剩下的时间有何影响。
哪些商品可能更昂贵？
以12天的圣诞节为例。
至少圣诞礼物会涨价。根据PNC的年度圣诞价格指数（Christmas Price Index），如果想买齐著名节日歌曲中提到的各项礼物，就要花掉41205.58美元，比2019年增加了5.7%。
除了节日礼物，人们经常购买的很多商品都在涨价。举例来说，男士外套的价格上涨了14.1%，电视的价格比去年上涨了7.9%。如果假期需要开车，油价也可能让人难以忍受。根据美国汽车协会（American Automobile Association）的数据，全美汽油价格平均每加仑为3.30美元，而去年为2.21美元。
节日食物也更贵。根据消费者价格指数，牛肉和火腿分别上涨了20.9%和11.1%。就连礼品包装纸的价格也比去年高出了7.3%。
PNC的首席经济学家格斯·福谢告诉《财富》杂志：“很多日常接触的商品价格涨幅都很大，人们每周去杂货店，每周给汽车加两次油。对此类价格更为敏感。”
而一些高价商品的涨价幅度最大。
消费者价格指数显示，新车和卡车的价格比去年同期高出11.1%，二手车价大幅上涨了31%。珠宝的价格也涨了6.7%。
消费仍然强劲
不过，价格上扬并未减缓消费者的脚步。
事实上，由于人们担心供应链断裂，可能比去年买更多，主要因为动手买的时间更早。尽管美国商务部（Commerce Department）表示，今年11月的美国零售额低于预期，但很大程度上是因为美国人的购物季在之前一个月就已经开启了。根据美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）的数据，今年10月的零售额同比增长了16.3%。
由于工资上涨以及政府刺激计划，今年美国人的储蓄总体上比新冠疫情爆发前多，不过目前储蓄逐渐减少。
“至少在节日之前，人们攒了不少钱，而且从心理学角度来看，他们感觉买东西的权利曾经遭到剥夺，因为（新冠疫情爆发早期）没有机会购物。”蒙加说。
但通货膨胀意味着人们购买完全相同的商品（包括食品和天然气等必需品）时支出更多。更复杂的是，有些人因为担心出现短缺，就一直为家庭囤积商品，而这可能推升价格。
“我们正处于自我实现的预言中。”罗格斯大学（Rutgers University）的营销学教授阿什瓦尼·蒙加告诉《财富》杂志。“人们认为有短缺现象，就去买更多，结果其他人发现供应不足，价格自然随之上涨。”
供应链确实存在问题，但希望可能就在前方
供应链危机方面没有什么可解释的。新冠疫情爆发导致全世界基本陷入停滞，2020年制造商纷纷停产。近两年后，全球流程都已经陷入混乱，企业仍然在努力控制病毒，争取恢复元气。
由于制造业工人短缺，以及各种问题导致的“大辞职潮”（Great Resignation），种种问题都在加剧。
“供应链一点弹性也没有，新冠病毒出现时，各层面都出现了不确定性。”佐治亚理工学院（Georgia Tech）的运输和物流教授奇普·怀特告诉《财富》杂志。
但乐观的一面是，美国的情况比去年还是强很多，去年很多人只能居家，完全依靠繁忙至极的联邦快递（FedEx）和联合包裹（UPS）。
彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的资深研究员杰弗里·肖特说：“去年，人们非常担心买的东西能不能及时送到家。快递实在太忙了。今年似乎没有类似的报道。物流网络已经开始适应节奏。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
新冠肺炎的病例激增，再加上新的奥密克戎变异病毒，都为美国的假日季蒙上了阴影。不过即便在此之前，假日期间的经济状况也远不及往年。
美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）公布的消费者价格指数（Consumer Price Index）显示，今年11月的消费者价格指数同比上涨了6.8%，为近40年来最大涨幅。罪魁祸首是通货膨胀和供应链的持续危机。
以下详细介绍经济动荡对今年剩下的时间有何影响。
哪些商品可能更昂贵？
以12天的圣诞节为例。
至少圣诞礼物会涨价。根据PNC的年度圣诞价格指数（Christmas Price Index），如果想买齐著名节日歌曲中提到的各项礼物，就要花掉41205.58美元，比2019年增加了5.7%。
除了节日礼物，人们经常购买的很多商品都在涨价。举例来说，男士外套的价格上涨了14.1%，电视的价格比去年上涨了7.9%。如果假期需要开车，油价也可能让人难以忍受。根据美国汽车协会（American Automobile Association）的数据，全美汽油价格平均每加仑为3.30美元，而去年为2.21美元。
节日食物也更贵。根据消费者价格指数，牛肉和火腿分别上涨了20.9%和11.1%。就连礼品包装纸的价格也比去年高出了7.3%。
PNC的首席经济学家格斯·福谢告诉《财富》杂志：“很多日常接触的商品价格涨幅都很大，人们每周去杂货店，每周给汽车加两次油。对此类价格更为敏感。”
而一些高价商品的涨价幅度最大。
消费者价格指数显示，新车和卡车的价格比去年同期高出11.1%，二手车价大幅上涨了31%。珠宝的价格也涨了6.7%。
消费仍然强劲
不过，价格上扬并未减缓消费者的脚步。
事实上，由于人们担心供应链断裂，可能比去年买更多，主要因为动手买的时间更早。尽管美国商务部（Commerce Department）表示，今年11月的美国零售额低于预期，但很大程度上是因为美国人的购物季在之前一个月就已经开启了。根据美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）的数据，今年10月的零售额同比增长了16.3%。
由于工资上涨以及政府刺激计划，今年美国人的储蓄总体上比新冠疫情爆发前多，不过目前储蓄逐渐减少。
“至少在节日之前，人们攒了不少钱，而且从心理学角度来看，他们感觉买东西的权利曾经遭到剥夺，因为（新冠疫情爆发早期）没有机会购物。”蒙加说。
但通货膨胀意味着人们购买完全相同的商品（包括食品和天然气等必需品）时支出更多。更复杂的是，有些人因为担心出现短缺，就一直为家庭囤积商品，而这可能推升价格。
“我们正处于自我实现的预言中。”罗格斯大学（Rutgers University）的营销学教授阿什瓦尼·蒙加告诉《财富》杂志。“人们认为有短缺现象，就去买更多，结果其他人发现供应不足，价格自然随之上涨。”
供应链确实存在问题，但希望可能就在前方
供应链危机方面没有什么可解释的。新冠疫情爆发导致全世界基本陷入停滞，2020年制造商纷纷停产。近两年后，全球流程都已经陷入混乱，企业仍然在努力控制病毒，争取恢复元气。
由于制造业工人短缺，以及各种问题导致的“大辞职潮”（Great Resignation），种种问题都在加剧。
“供应链一点弹性也没有，新冠病毒出现时，各层面都出现了不确定性。”佐治亚理工学院（Georgia Tech）的运输和物流教授奇普·怀特告诉《财富》杂志。
但乐观的一面是，美国的情况比去年还是强很多，去年很多人只能居家，完全依靠繁忙至极的联邦快递（FedEx）和联合包裹（UPS）。
彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的资深研究员杰弗里·肖特说：“去年，人们非常担心买的东西能不能及时送到家。快递实在太忙了。今年似乎没有类似的报道。物流网络已经开始适应节奏。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
A surge in COVID cases, coupled with the new Omicron variant has cast a shadow over the holiday season in the U.S. But even before that, the economics behind the festivities was far from normal.
Consumer prices in November jumped 6.8% over the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index—the largest spike in nearly four decades. The main culprits: inflation and a lingering supply chain crunch.
Here’s how that economic instability could affect the rest of your year.
So what’s more expensive?
The 12 days of Christmas, for one.
Or at least the gifts are. If you try to buy all the presents mentioned in the famous holiday song, you would have to fork over $41,205.58—a 5.7% increase from 2019, according to PNC's annual Christmas Price Index.
But beyond that, many items that people buy regularly have increased in price. Men’s outerwear, for example, is up 14.1%, and TVs cost 7.9% more than last year. For anyone driving for the holidays, gas prices could be tough to stomach. The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.30, according to the American Automobile Association, compared to $2.21 last year.
Holiday meals are more expensive, too: Beef and ham jumped 20.9% and 11.1% respectively, according to the CPI. Even gift wrapping paper costs 7.3% more than it did last year.
“A lot of the prices that people see every day are the ones that have gone up the most,” Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, told Fortune. “You go to the grocery store every week, you fill up your car twice a week. You're more attuned to those prices.”
Some big ticket items have seen the biggest price increases.
The price of new cars and trucks is 11.1% higher than it was this time last year, and used cars have seen a whopping 31% price increase, according to the CPI. Jewelry is also up 6.7%.
Spending is still going strong
Higher prices haven’t slowed down consumers.
In fact, spurred by concerns about the broken supply chain, people are likely to buy more than they did last year, in part because they started buying presents earlier. Though the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales were less than expected in November, that’s in large part because Americans kicked off the shopping season the month prior. Retail sales in October were up 16.3% year-over-year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Americans overall had more savings this year than they did pre-pandemic, due to wage increases, government stimulus programs, although that nest egg is now shrinking.
“At least until this point, people had tons of money saved up, and from a psychological perspective, they were feeling deprived that they hadn’t purchased stuff [earlier in the pandemic],” Monga said.
But inflation means that people are paying more for the same items (including necessities like food and gas) that they were buying before. Compounding the matter, some people continue to overbuy items for their household out of fear there will be a shortage, and that can raise prices.
“We are in a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Ashwani Monga, a marketing professor at Rutgers University, told Fortune. “People think there are shortages, so they go and they buy more, and there is low supply for others, and prices go up.”
Supply chain problems are real, but hope could be on the horizon
There’s no one explanation for the supply chain crisis. The COVID pandemic caused manufacturers to put a stop on production in 2020 as the world essentially crawled to a halt. Nearly two years later, companies are still struggling to contain the virus and to recover after their global processes were thrown into disarray.
Those problems have been exacerbated by a manufacturing worker shortage that’s part of the so-called “Great Resignation.”
“The supply chain doesn’t have any resilience, and when COVID came along, it created uncertainty at all levels,” Chip White, a transportation and logistics professor at Georgia Tech, told Fortune.
On the bright side, the U.S. is still far ahead of where it was last year, when lots of people were still staying in their homes and relying solely on overburdened FedEx and UPS networks.
“Last year, there was a big concern whether anything would actually get to the house in time. There was such an overload on the delivery services,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a centrist think tank. “We don't seem to have any of those stories this year. The logistical network has begun to adjust.”
