美国劳动力短缺，助推通胀走高
劳动力持续短缺迫使企业不得不提高员工薪酬。而这反过来可能影响通货膨胀。
虽然最近几个月的失业率大幅下降，但与新冠疫情爆发之前的水平相比，美国的就业人数依旧减少了约400万人。PNC公司的格斯·福谢最近告诉《财富》杂志，由于劳动力数量也少于新冠疫情爆发之前的水平，因此随着经济持续复苏，对劳动力的需求相当强劲。截至今年10月，美国约有1100万个职位空缺，换工作的员工数量依旧处在历史最高水平。
这种高压力的环境意味着雇主开始感到不安，为了留住和吸引员工做好了被讨价还价的准备。事实上，据美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）统计，过去一年美国员工的时薪上涨了4.8%。今年11月，私营企业员工的平均时薪为31.03美元，相比之下2020年2月只有28.51美元。
工资上涨已经开始推高商品和服务价格。过去12个月，商品和服务价格上涨6.8%，创下近四十年来的最大涨幅。
PNC的高级经济学家比尔·亚当斯说：“人工成本快速上涨也是导致通货膨胀的原因之一。”人工成本上涨会增加商品和服务成本，当消费者感觉手头宽裕的时候也会刺激消费。
人工成本上涨会推高整个供应链的原材料和产价格。例如，如果肉类加工厂需要提高员工薪酬，它们通常会通过提高产品价格来转嫁成本。餐厅要为采购肉类支付更高的价格，这意味着它们可能需要提高菜单价格。12月14日发布的最新生产者物价指数显示，今年11月企业支付的原材料价格较去年上涨了9.6%。虽然有许多因素导致价格上涨，包括供应链问题等，但劳动力不足也是一个重要原因。
这个问题产生了广泛的影响。约78%的小企业主表示受到了通货膨胀的影响，63%的小企业为了保持竞争力，在过去一年已经提高了产品或服务的价格。
如果企业为了转嫁人工成本提高价格，在这种情况下价格就很难快速回落。因为劳动力是“非常棘手的”成本因素，这意味着一旦企业提高了薪酬，就很难再降低商品或服务的成本。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的首席农业经济学家迈克尔·斯万森称：“你不可能告诉某个员工：‘嘿，我要给你加薪到每小时18美元。’但等到情况好转之后却说：‘我要把你的时薪下调到15美元。’”他还指出：“员工的工资一旦提高之后就很难下调。”
工资上涨还会刺激消费者需求，因为许多美国人有更多资金可以用于消费。比如，芝加哥联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve of Chicago）的研究发现，在最低工资上涨1美元的第二年，低收入员工的消费增加了2800美元。
哈佛大学（Harvard University）的约翰·F·肯尼迪政府学院（John F. Kennedy School of Government）的教授、经济学家贾森·弗曼在一篇文章中表示，美国消费者支出大幅增加。他认为，虽然实物商品消费预计会有所下降，但依旧高于许多人的预期。
弗曼称：“我想现在所有人都有足够多的玩具、乐器、体育器材等。”但他表示在医疗保健、餐饮和旅游等方面的服务消费可能增加，这意味着企业需要增加招聘或者提高员工薪酬，而这会进一步推高成本。与实物商品相比，服务成本更多取决于人工成本。
通货膨胀和劳动力市场面临的最大的不确定性是新冠疫情的变化。亚当斯表示，如果美国人因为担心健康问题，依旧不愿意从事需要与公众大量接触的工作，劳动力市场就会持续紧缩，而工资快速上涨则会推动通胀率继续攀升。这个问题尤其会影响55岁以上的美国人重回职场的意愿。许多这个年龄段的美国人在新冠疫情期间提前退休或离开了劳动力市场，至今没有重新就业。
亚当斯补充说：“冬季新冠疫情的再次爆发，给劳动力参与率的前景蒙上了阴影，并且带来了通胀持续攀升的风险。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
劳动力持续短缺迫使企业不得不提高员工薪酬。而这反过来可能影响通货膨胀。
虽然最近几个月的失业率大幅下降，但与新冠疫情爆发之前的水平相比，美国的就业人数依旧减少了约400万人。PNC公司的格斯·福谢最近告诉《财富》杂志，由于劳动力数量也少于新冠疫情爆发之前的水平，因此随着经济持续复苏，对劳动力的需求相当强劲。截至今年10月，美国约有1100万个职位空缺，换工作的员工数量依旧处在历史最高水平。
这种高压力的环境意味着雇主开始感到不安，为了留住和吸引员工做好了被讨价还价的准备。事实上，据美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）统计，过去一年美国员工的时薪上涨了4.8%。今年11月，私营企业员工的平均时薪为31.03美元，相比之下2020年2月只有28.51美元。
工资上涨已经开始推高商品和服务价格。过去12个月，商品和服务价格上涨6.8%，创下近四十年来的最大涨幅。
PNC的高级经济学家比尔·亚当斯说：“人工成本快速上涨也是导致通货膨胀的原因之一。”人工成本上涨会增加商品和服务成本，当消费者感觉手头宽裕的时候也会刺激消费。
人工成本上涨会推高整个供应链的原材料和产价格。例如，如果肉类加工厂需要提高员工薪酬，它们通常会通过提高产品价格来转嫁成本。餐厅要为采购肉类支付更高的价格，这意味着它们可能需要提高菜单价格。12月14日发布的最新生产者物价指数显示，今年11月企业支付的原材料价格较去年上涨了9.6%。虽然有许多因素导致价格上涨，包括供应链问题等，但劳动力不足也是一个重要原因。
这个问题产生了广泛的影响。约78%的小企业主表示受到了通货膨胀的影响，63%的小企业为了保持竞争力，在过去一年已经提高了产品或服务的价格。
如果企业为了转嫁人工成本提高价格，在这种情况下价格就很难快速回落。因为劳动力是“非常棘手的”成本因素，这意味着一旦企业提高了薪酬，就很难再降低商品或服务的成本。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的首席农业经济学家迈克尔·斯万森称：“你不可能告诉某个员工：‘嘿，我要给你加薪到每小时18美元。’但等到情况好转之后却说：‘我要把你的时薪下调到15美元。’”他还指出：“员工的工资一旦提高之后就很难下调。”
工资上涨还会刺激消费者需求，因为许多美国人有更多资金可以用于消费。比如，芝加哥联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve of Chicago）的研究发现，在最低工资上涨1美元的第二年，低收入员工的消费增加了2800美元。
哈佛大学（Harvard University）的约翰·F·肯尼迪政府学院（John F. Kennedy School of Government）的教授、经济学家贾森·弗曼在一篇文章中表示，美国消费者支出大幅增加。他认为，虽然实物商品消费预计会有所下降，但依旧高于许多人的预期。
弗曼称：“我想现在所有人都有足够多的玩具、乐器、体育器材等。”但他表示在医疗保健、餐饮和旅游等方面的服务消费可能增加，这意味着企业需要增加招聘或者提高员工薪酬，而这会进一步推高成本。与实物商品相比，服务成本更多取决于人工成本。
通货膨胀和劳动力市场面临的最大的不确定性是新冠疫情的变化。亚当斯表示，如果美国人因为担心健康问题，依旧不愿意从事需要与公众大量接触的工作，劳动力市场就会持续紧缩，而工资快速上涨则会推动通胀率继续攀升。这个问题尤其会影响55岁以上的美国人重回职场的意愿。许多这个年龄段的美国人在新冠疫情期间提前退休或离开了劳动力市场，至今没有重新就业。
亚当斯补充说：“冬季新冠疫情的再次爆发，给劳动力参与率的前景蒙上了阴影，并且带来了通胀持续攀升的风险。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
As the labor crunch drags on, it’s forcing companies to bump up employee pay. That, in turn, can affect inflation.
Despite the unemployment rate tumbling in recent months, the U.S. is still down about 4 million workers compared with pre-pandemic levels. Because the labor force is also smaller than it was before the pandemic, the demand for labor is strong as the economy continues to recover, which has exacerbated the shortage, PNC’s Gus Faucher recently told Fortune. Currently there are about 11 million jobs open as of October, and the number of workers changing jobs is still at record levels.
This pressure cooker situation means that employers are on edge—and ready to bargain in order to retain and attract workers. In fact, U.S. workers’ hourly pay has increased by 4.8% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private employees earned an average of $31.03 per hour in November, compared to $28.51 in February 2020.
That wage growth has been starting to feed into the rising prices of goods and services, which rose 6.8% over the last 12 months, the largest rate increase in nearly four decades.
“Rapid increases in labor costs are also contributing to inflation,” says Bill Adams, PNC’s senior economist. That’s because labor costs can help drive up the cost of goods and services—and can also boost spending if consumers feel more flush in the pocket.
When labor costs increase, that can boost raw material and product prices throughout the supply chain. If meatpacking plants, for example, need to increase worker pay, then they typically raise prices to cover the cost. But now restaurants are paying more for meat, and that means restaurants may need to bump up their menu prices. Already, the prices that companies paid for supplies in November were up 9.6% over the last year's costs, according to the latest producer price index published on December 14. While that jump reflects a number of factors, including supply-chain concerns, labor also plays a part.
This has a broad effect. About 78% of small-business owners say they have been impacted by inflation, and 63% already bumped up the prices of their products or services within the past year to compete.
And those prices, when increased to cover labor costs, are not likely to immediately tumble. Labor is a “very sticky” cost factor, and that means once companies award raises, it’s difficult to bring the cost of a good or service back down. “It’s really hard to tell somebody, ‘Hey, I'm going to bump your paycheck up to $18 an hour,’ and then when things kind of settle down, you’re like, ‘I’m gonna kick you back to $15,’” said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo. “Higher wages are something that once it gets built in, it’s kind of permanent,” Swanson adds.
Higher wages also feed consumer demand, since many Americans have more to spend. For example, low-wage workers spent an additional $2,800 in the year following a $1 minimum wage pay increase, according to research from the Federal Reserve of Chicago.
The U.S. has experienced a huge increase in consumer spending, writes Jason Furman, an economist and professor at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. And while spending on physical goods is expected to decline, Furman says it has stayed higher than many people expected.
“I would have thought everyone had enough toys, musical instruments, sports equipment, etc., by now,” Furman said. But he added that spending on services such as health care, restaurant visits, and travel is likely to rise, which will probably mean that companies need to hire or pay more—again, driving up the costs. And the cost of services is based far more on labor costs than physical goods.
The biggest uncertainty around inflation and the labor market is how the pandemic will evolve. If health fears continue to make Americans leery about taking jobs with a lot of interaction with the public, the labor market will keep tightening, and rapid wage growth will continue to fuel high inflation, Adams says. That could especially affect the rate at which Americans over the age of 55 are willing to reenter the workforce. Many of these workers retired early or exited the workforce during the pandemic and have yet to return.
“The winter surge of the pandemic is bad news for the prospects for labor force participation and creates upside risks for the inflation outlook,” Adams adds.
