北美木材主产地野火肆虐，锯木厂削减产能
7月20日，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省因为发生近300处野火，宣布进入紧急状态。当地的支柱产业木材行业已经受到严重冲击。当天晚些时候，不列颠哥伦比亚省的林业巨头加福林业（Canfor Corporation）宣布，受到野火的影响，该公司将削减锯木厂产能约1.15亿板英尺。
加福林业的北美业务执行副总裁史蒂芬•麦奇在新闻稿中称：“加拿大西部发生的野火严重影响了供应链以及我们的产品运输。因此，我们将从7月26日起，临时削减加拿大锯木厂的产量。”
产能减少1.15亿板英尺对木材行业意味着什么？Deacon Lumber公司的首席执行官斯廷森•迪恩于7月20日对《财富》杂志说：“正常情况下削减产能可能不会有影响，但在当前的市场环境下却意义重大。”更重要的是，他认为这意味着未来该公司会进一步削减产能。
不列颠哥伦比亚省是北美的木材产业中心，如果当地的野火演变成可怕的野火季，无疑会推高木材价格。在北美规模最大的六家木材生产商中，有三家位于不列颠哥伦比亚省，它们分别是West Fraser Timber公司（第1位）、加福林业（第2位）和Interfor公司（第6位）。当地木材产量的90%被用于出口，其中大部分销往美国。
对于年产700亿板英尺的木材行业来说，减产1.15亿板英尺只是九牛一毛，但削减产能的时机对买家来说却是非常糟糕。最近几周，木材供应量反弹和需求降温，终于让买家可以长舒一口气。今年春季，木材价格上涨超过300%，但自5月底以来，木材价格下跌了62%。削减产能可能令木材价格下跌的趋势戛然而止。
Fastmarkets RISI主要研究木材市场的高级经济学家达斯汀•贾尔伯特告诉《财富》杂志：“削减产能会导致供应紧张，但目前1亿板英尺木材不会导致市场失衡……进一步削减产能才有可能影响市场。”
当加福林业公司宣布削减产能时，恰逢木材价格跌至今年最低。《财富》杂志从Fastmarkets旗下的行业期刊《Random Lengths》获得的数据显示，上周，木材现货市场价格下跌114美元，跌至每千板英尺575美元。虽然这个价格依旧比新冠疫情之前上涨了61%，但与5月28日的史上最高价格1,515美元相比，已经大幅下跌。
《财富》杂志此前曾经指出，相比美国南部盛产的南方黄松，加拿大软木更受美国房屋建筑商的欢迎。即使在新冠疫情爆发之前，由于野火、昆虫入侵和云杉树生长速度缓慢等原因，加拿大西部的软木生产一直受到限制。因此，木材生产商很难满足新冠疫情导致的建房热和DIY热所带来的巨大需求，这导致木材价格暴涨，直到最近才有所下降。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
7月20日，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省因为发生近300处野火，宣布进入紧急状态。当地的支柱产业木材行业已经受到严重冲击。当天晚些时候，不列颠哥伦比亚省的林业巨头加福林业（Canfor Corporation）宣布，受到野火的影响，该公司将削减锯木厂产能约1.15亿板英尺。
加福林业的北美业务执行副总裁史蒂芬•麦奇在新闻稿中称：“加拿大西部发生的野火严重影响了供应链以及我们的产品运输。因此，我们将从7月26日起，临时削减加拿大锯木厂的产量。”
产能减少1.15亿板英尺对木材行业意味着什么？Deacon Lumber公司的首席执行官斯廷森•迪恩于7月20日对《财富》杂志说：“正常情况下削减产能可能不会有影响，但在当前的市场环境下却意义重大。”更重要的是，他认为这意味着未来该公司会进一步削减产能。
不列颠哥伦比亚省是北美的木材产业中心，如果当地的野火演变成可怕的野火季，无疑会推高木材价格。在北美规模最大的六家木材生产商中，有三家位于不列颠哥伦比亚省，它们分别是West Fraser Timber公司（第1位）、加福林业（第2位）和Interfor公司（第6位）。当地木材产量的90%被用于出口，其中大部分销往美国。
对于年产700亿板英尺的木材行业来说，减产1.15亿板英尺只是九牛一毛，但削减产能的时机对买家来说却是非常糟糕。最近几周，木材供应量反弹和需求降温，终于让买家可以长舒一口气。今年春季，木材价格上涨超过300%，但自5月底以来，木材价格下跌了62%。削减产能可能令木材价格下跌的趋势戛然而止。
Fastmarkets RISI主要研究木材市场的高级经济学家达斯汀•贾尔伯特告诉《财富》杂志：“削减产能会导致供应紧张，但目前1亿板英尺木材不会导致市场失衡……进一步削减产能才有可能影响市场。”
当加福林业公司宣布削减产能时，恰逢木材价格跌至今年最低。《财富》杂志从Fastmarkets旗下的行业期刊《Random Lengths》获得的数据显示，上周，木材现货市场价格下跌114美元，跌至每千板英尺575美元。虽然这个价格依旧比新冠疫情之前上涨了61%，但与5月28日的史上最高价格1,515美元相比，已经大幅下跌。
《财富》杂志此前曾经指出，相比美国南部盛产的南方黄松，加拿大软木更受美国房屋建筑商的欢迎。即使在新冠疫情爆发之前，由于野火、昆虫入侵和云杉树生长速度缓慢等原因，加拿大西部的软木生产一直受到限制。因此，木材生产商很难满足新冠疫情导致的建房热和DIY热所带来的巨大需求，这导致木材价格暴涨，直到最近才有所下降。（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
On July 20, British Columbia declared a state of emergency, as nearly 300 wildfires rage through the Canadian province. It's already hitting its crown jewel: Lumber. Later that day, British Columbia forestry titan Canfor Corporation announced it would curtail production at sawmills amounting to 115 million board feet of production capacity as a result of the wildfires.
"The wildfires burning in Western Canada are significantly impacting the supply chain and our ability to transport product to market. As a result, we are implementing short-term production curtailments at our Canadian sawmills beginning July 26," said Stephen Mackie, executive vice president of North American Operations at Canfor, in a released statement.
What does losing 115 million capacity mean for the industry? "Not that much normally but in this market it makes a difference," Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on July 20. More importantly, he said, it suggests more curtailments are on the way.
If this turns into an ugly wildfire season in British Columbia—the North American lumber mecca—it would undoubtedly increase lumber prices. Among the six largest North American lumber producers, three are located in British Columbia: West Fraser Timber (No. 1), Canfor (No. 2), and Interfor (No. 6). Over 90% of British Columbia's lumber output is exported, with the U.S. receiving most of it.
While 115 million board feet of production is a drop in the bucket for an industry with over 70 billion annual capacity, it's happening at a really bad time for buyers. In recent weeks, cooling demand coupled with rebounding lumber supply are finally giving buyers relief. This spring prices were up over 300%, however, since late May, lumber prices have dropped 62%. Losing capacity threatens that pullback.
"It will help [to] tighten supply, but as of right now, 100 million board feet of timber won't rebalance the market...it will take more curtailments to sway the market," Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, told Fortune.
This announcement comes just as lumber prices hit their lowest point of the year. Last week, the cash market price of lumber fell $114, to $575 per thousand board feet, according to data provided to Fortune by Fastmarkets’ Random Lengths, an industry trade publication. While that's still up 61% from its pre-covid price, it represents major price relief from the all-time high of $1,515 hit on May 28.
As Fortune has previously reported, Canadian softwood lumber—not the plentiful Southern Yellow Pine that dots the U.S. South—is the clear favorite among U.S. homebuilders. Even before the pandemic, softwood production in Western Canada was limited by a combination of past fires, beetle infestations, and the slow growth rate of spruce trees. As a result, lumber producers are struggling to meet the enormous demand from a boom in housing and DIY projects set off by the pandemic—and that has helped to create a huge increase in the price of lumber that only recently eased.
