钢铁价格上涨200%，泡沫何时会破？
你有没有发现，最近冰箱、空调、汽车这些商品都涨价了？导致这种现象的一个重要原因就是钢铁价格的上涨。
自2020年3月起，钢铁价格已经上涨了215%，涨势十分惊人。上周，热轧钢基准价格再创1825美元新高。而在新冠疫情之前，它的价格基本是在500美元到800美元的区间浮动。
到底发生了什么事？在2020年美国各地相继“封城”的头几个月里，很多钢铁厂担忧美国经济陷入深度衰退，因而主动减产。但铁矿石的需求下降趋势并未持续很久。隔离在家的美国人依然抵制不住消费的冲动。很快，人们对烤箱和电冰箱等家店的需求又高了起来。钢铁厂也被这种高需求打了个措手不及。
Fastmarket公司的钢铁行业专家索斯腾•斯切尔告诉《财富》杂志：“由于人们的消费模式发生了变化，市场对钢铁和木材的需求超过了最初的预期。很多人不再追求体验型消费和度假，而是开始买车、割草机或者白色家电，而这些产品都要大量用到钢铁。”
家电行业打个喷嚏，钢材市场都会感冒。问题是，钢铁需要既不依赖于人们做手工的爱好，也不依赖于新房建设——自从3月以来，美国的建房热也有所冷却。同时，随着美国经济复苏加快，很多钢铁密集型行业仍然处于高需求中，比如油气行业。未来几个月，随着美国航空和交通的复苏，石油公司和炼油厂必定会需要更多的钢铁。
斯切尔说：“我并不认为钢铁价格已经到顶，市场上大多数人都认为三季度需求还将进一步上涨。这种趋势直到2022年才会好转。总之就是需求紧张带动了价格的上涨。”
另一个因素就是行业的融合。今年，美国钢铁巨头Cleveland-Cliffs公司以11亿美元收购了AK Steel公司，以14亿美元收购了ArcelorMittal公司，基本上让行业经历了一次重新洗牌。斯切尔指出，目前市场基本被Cleveland-Cliffs和美国钢铁公司（United States Steel Corporation）两大巨头把持，所以他们也基本没有增产的动力，因为提高供给就意味着价格下降。
另一个原因是全球供应链的问题，特别是芯片短缺的问题甚至已经影响了全球汽车行业。一旦芯片短缺的问题得到解决，汽车行业的产能将会加速，这也意味着钢铁需求将进一步增加。
斯切尔在他的短期评估中明确表示：“在短期内，钢铁价格还看不到任何回落的迹象。”（财富中文网）
译者：朴成奎
你有没有发现，最近冰箱、空调、汽车这些商品都涨价了？导致这种现象的一个重要原因就是钢铁价格的上涨。
自2020年3月起，钢铁价格已经上涨了215%，涨势十分惊人。上周，热轧钢基准价格再创1825美元新高。而在新冠疫情之前，它的价格基本是在500美元到800美元的区间浮动。
到底发生了什么事？在2020年美国各地相继“封城”的头几个月里，很多钢铁厂担忧美国经济陷入深度衰退，因而主动减产。但铁矿石的需求下降趋势并未持续很久。隔离在家的美国人依然抵制不住消费的冲动。很快，人们对烤箱和电冰箱等家店的需求又高了起来。钢铁厂也被这种高需求打了个措手不及。
Fastmarket公司的钢铁行业专家索斯腾•斯切尔告诉《财富》杂志：“由于人们的消费模式发生了变化，市场对钢铁和木材的需求超过了最初的预期。很多人不再追求体验型消费和度假，而是开始买车、割草机或者白色家电，而这些产品都要大量用到钢铁。”
随着美国经济全面解封，有些疫情期间兴起的趋势也在慢慢衰退——比如在家做手工或者木工。因而木材市场也迎来了一次重新调整。5月28日，美国木材价格达到了1515美元每千板英尺的最高点（达到了疫情前的300%），而到了上周五，木材的现金价格已回落到770美元，足足下降了49%。不过，钢铁价格为什么没有像木材一样回落呢？
家电行业打个喷嚏，钢材市场都会感冒。问题是，钢铁需要既不依赖于人们做手工的爱好，也不依赖于新房建设——自从3月以来，美国的建房热也有所冷却。同时，随着美国经济复苏加快，很多钢铁密集型行业仍然处于高需求中，比如油气行业。未来几个月，随着美国航空和交通的复苏，石油公司和炼油厂必定会需要更多的钢铁。
斯切尔说：“我并不认为钢铁价格已经到顶，市场上大多数人都认为三季度需求还将进一步上涨。这种趋势直到2022年才会好转。总之就是需求紧张带动了价格的上涨。”
另一个因素就是行业的融合。今年，美国钢铁巨头Cleveland-Cliffs公司以11亿美元收购了AK Steel公司，以14亿美元收购了ArcelorMittal公司，基本上让行业经历了一次重新洗牌。斯切尔指出，目前市场基本被Cleveland-Cliffs和美国钢铁公司（United States Steel Corporation）两大巨头把持，所以他们也基本没有增产的动力，因为提高供给就意味着价格下降。
另一个原因是全球供应链的问题，特别是芯片短缺的问题甚至已经影响了全球汽车行业。一旦芯片短缺的问题得到解决，汽车行业的产能将会加速，这也意味着钢铁需求将进一步增加。
斯切尔在他的短期评估中明确表示：“在短期内，钢铁价格还看不到任何回落的迹象。”（财富中文网）
译者：朴成奎
What do refrigerators, air conditioning units, and new cars have in common? They're all seeing prices spike as manufacturers grapple with a worsening shortage of a key component: steel.
Since March 2020, steel prices are up a staggering 215%. The benchmark price for hot-rolled steel hit another all-time high last week, climbing to $1,825. Prior to the pandemic, it traded in the $500 to $800 range.
What's going on? During the early months of the 2020 shutdowns, many steel mills shut off production in fear that we were headed into a deep recession—maybe even a depression. But that drop-off in demand didn't last long for iron ore. Early in the pandemic, stuck at home Americans rushed to spruce up their abodes. Soon, steel-heavy products like grills and refrigerators were in high demand. That quick rebound caught steel mills off-guard.
"What happened, which is similar to lumber, demand during COVID-19 was stronger than first anticipated because of switches in consumption patterns. Instead of paying for experiences and vacations, they were buying a new lawn mower, buying a new car, or white goods like appliances—which are steel intensive," Thorsten Schier, a metals expert at Fastmarkets, tells Fortune.
As the U.S. begins to fully reopen, some pandemic-spurred trends, like lumber and steel intensive do-it-yourself home remodeling, are slowing down. That DIY pullback is, in part, helping to cause a correction in the lumber market: Since peaking at $1,515 per thousand board feet on May 28—which was 300% above its pre-pandemic price—the cash price of lumber is down 49% to $770 as of Friday. That begs the question: Why isn't steel seeing a similar correction?
Any pullback in household durables is certainly felt by steelmakers. However, unlike wood products, steel is less dependent on DIY or new home construction—which is also cooling down a bit from its March peak this year. In fact, many industries that are steel heavy, like oil and gas, are seeing their steel demand soar right now as the economy reopens. Oil producers and refineries will only need more steel in the coming months as Americans return to air travel and their daily commutes.
"I don't think we've hit the peak for steel prices. Most people in the market see strength through the third quarter, and some don't see it getting better on the buying side until 2022 sometime," Schier says. "It is just that supply is that tight. People are scrambling for material."
Another factor: Consolidation. Two major acquisitions last year by steelmaking titan Cleveland-Cliffs—AK Steel for $1.1 billion and U.S. steel mills from ArcelorMittal for $1.4 billion—has essentially made the steel industry a duopoly. That firm grip by Cleveland-Cliffs and United States Steel Corporation on the market, Schier says, leaves them with little incentive to increase production. After all, creating more supply would only mean their prices would fall.
The other wildcard at play are global supply chains issues. In particular, the chip shortage which is hampering new car production. Once the chip shortage is resolved, the automotive industry is expected to ramp-up. More cars rolling off production lines, means more steel demand.
Fastmarket's Schier was blunt with his short-term steel assessment: "There doesn't appear to be any sign that it is abating anytime soon."
