欧洲经济复苏速度或将超预期
根据欧盟委员会（European Commission）对今年夏季的预测，欧洲经济或将在今年最后三个月恢复到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平，比预期要提前了一个季度。
由于新冠疫苗的供应量增加，欧盟的疫苗接种率几乎赶上美国。欧盟（European Union）预计，疫苗接种活动将强劲反弹，足以摆脱原材料短缺的影响。
欧盟委员会的执行副主席瓦尔蒂斯•东布罗夫斯基斯在一份声明中赞扬称，由于抗击新冠肺炎取得显著进展，“所有正确的部分都已经到位”，经济复苏前景强劲。
他说：“由于遏制战略有效，新冠疫苗接种进展迅速，我们经济的重新开放速度能够比预期更快。”他还补充道，7238亿欧元（约8540亿美元）的“复苏及弹性基金”（Recovery and Resilience Facility）将支持未来的增长。
预计今年欧元区以整个欧盟的产出将以4.8%的速度增长，较春季的经济预测分别修正了50个基点和60个基点。欧盟委员会还将两地明年的国内生产总值增幅预估上调10个基点，至4.5%。
欧盟内部旅游业复苏也展现出了乐观情绪。这应当得益于新的欧盟新冠疫情数字证书（EU Digital COVID Certificate）。
但是，制造商成本上升意味着通胀也将高于预期，这给欧洲央行（European Central Bank）带来了压力。德国央行（Bundesbank）的行长延斯•魏德曼等鹰派人士呼吁，一旦经济完全恢复到2019年的水平，就停止紧急资产购买。
预计称，欧元区今年的平均消费价格涨幅将达到1.9%，比之前预测的1.7%要高。欧盟委员会还将其对2022年的预测略微上调了10个基点，至1.4%。
“由于国内外需求的强劲，我们将必须密切关注通胀的上升。”东布罗夫斯基斯说道。
欧盟委员会指出，围绕增长前景的不确定性和风险很高，但总体上仍然保持平衡。委员会还补充称，如果供应限制更加持久、上行压力将更多地传递给消费者，消费者价格涨幅可能高于预期。
下一轮经济预测将于今年11月公布。（财富中文网）
编译：杨二一
根据欧盟委员会（European Commission）对今年夏季的预测，欧洲经济或将在今年最后三个月恢复到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平，比预期要提前了一个季度。
由于新冠疫苗的供应量增加，欧盟的疫苗接种率几乎赶上美国。欧盟（European Union）预计，疫苗接种活动将强劲反弹，足以摆脱原材料短缺的影响。
欧盟委员会的执行副主席瓦尔蒂斯•东布罗夫斯基斯在一份声明中赞扬称，由于抗击新冠肺炎取得显著进展，“所有正确的部分都已经到位”，经济复苏前景强劲。
他说：“由于遏制战略有效，新冠疫苗接种进展迅速，我们经济的重新开放速度能够比预期更快。”他还补充道，7238亿欧元（约8540亿美元）的“复苏及弹性基金”（Recovery and Resilience Facility）将支持未来的增长。
预计今年欧元区以整个欧盟的产出将以4.8%的速度增长，较春季的经济预测分别修正了50个基点和60个基点。欧盟委员会还将两地明年的国内生产总值增幅预估上调10个基点，至4.5%。
欧盟内部旅游业复苏也展现出了乐观情绪。这应当得益于新的欧盟新冠疫情数字证书（EU Digital COVID Certificate）。
但是，制造商成本上升意味着通胀也将高于预期，这给欧洲央行（European Central Bank）带来了压力。德国央行（Bundesbank）的行长延斯•魏德曼等鹰派人士呼吁，一旦经济完全恢复到2019年的水平，就停止紧急资产购买。
预计称，欧元区今年的平均消费价格涨幅将达到1.9%，比之前预测的1.7%要高。欧盟委员会还将其对2022年的预测略微上调了10个基点，至1.4%。
“由于国内外需求的强劲，我们将必须密切关注通胀的上升。”东布罗夫斯基斯说道。
欧盟委员会指出，围绕增长前景的不确定性和风险很高，但总体上仍然保持平衡。委员会还补充称，如果供应限制更加持久、上行压力将更多地传递给消费者，消费者价格涨幅可能高于预期。
下一轮经济预测将于今年11月公布。（财富中文网）
编译：杨二一
Europe’s economy should return to pre-pandemic levels in the final three months of this year, one quarter earlier than predicted, according to the European Commission’s summer forecast.
Thanks to an increase in vaccine supply that has seen the European Union all but catch up to the U.S. in its inoculation rate, Brussels expects a rebound in activity strong enough to shrug off shortages in raw materials.
In a statement, European Commission executive vice president Valdis Dombrovskis praised the robust outlook in which “all the right pieces falling into place” thanks to progress in the fight against the Coronavirus.
“Our economies have been able to reopen faster than expected thanks to an effective containment strategy and progress with vaccinations,” he said, adding the €723.8 billion ($854 billion) Recovery and Resilience Facility would support growth going forward.
Output in both the euro area and the broader EU is forecast to expand at a rate of 4.8% this year, a revision of 50 basis points and 60 bps, respectively, over the spring economic forecast. The Commission also hiked its estimates for next year’s increase in gross domestic product by 10 bps to 4.5% in both cases.
Evidence of a revival in intra-EU tourism provided further optimism, which should benefit from the new EU Digital COVID Certificate.
Rising costs for manufacturers means inflation will also come in hotter than expected, putting pressure on the European Central Bank. Hawks like Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann have called for an end to emergency asset purchases once the economy has fully recovered to 2019 levels.
Consumer price gains in the euro area are now expected to average 1.9% this year instead of the 1.7% previously seen. The Commission also marginally increased its forecast for 2022 by 10 bps to 1.4%.
“We will have to keep a close eye on rising inflation, which is due not least to stronger domestic and foreign demand,” Dombrovskis said.
Uncertainty and risks surrounding the growth outlook are high but remain overall balanced, according to the Commission. It added that consumer price hikes may turn out higher than forecast if supply constraints are more persistent and upward pressures are passed on to customers more strongly.
The next economic forecast is scheduled to be published in November.
