最大比特币交易平台上市在即，CEO劝你慎重买
4月6日，在原计划首次公开募股的八天前，Coinbase Global公开了2021年第一季度的惊人业绩。这个全美最大的加密货币交易所宣称，凭借着庞大的比特币交易量，在情况最好的时候，其收益能力堪比交易股票和债券的顶级华尔街银行。4月14日，Coinbase将在纳斯达克直接上市，这是个符合现今潮流的果敢决定，彰显了其首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗的独到思维。
根据近期自由市场上的股票出售状况，Coinbase的市值预计将达到1000亿美元，这是几个月之前的加密货币交易所根本不敢想象的事情。为了回报投资者，Coinbase的最终收益需要与第一季度的惊人水平相当，并在此基础上更上一层楼。然而，出人意料的是，阿姆斯特朗提醒追捧者们，要为“勇闯终极难关做好准备”，他严肃地表示，这趟旅程不仅万分艰险，而且要想实现持续性的盈利，还有很长的路要走。他在2月25日提交的首次公开募股注册声明中写道：“我们可能会在收益高的时候赚钱，在收益低的时候亏损，但我们的目标是大致保持平衡，并随着时间的推移而逐渐稳定下来。”
暂且保持平稳？这可不像是什么合理的预言，1000亿美元的估值将使得Coinbase成为美国第13大最有价值的金融服务公司，仅比高盛集团少120亿美元。要想评估Coinbase未来获得巨额收益的可能性，让投资者以超高价买入其股票的决定有所价值，关键得弄清楚其模式的运作方式。以下是Coinbase注册声明和第一季度报告中的六大要点。
Coinbase第一季度的收益在华尔街都实属罕见
Coinbase在第一季度的报告中宣布，其收益已跃升至18亿美元，相比于去年同期增长了9倍，也是2020年第四季度收益的三倍。其净利润上升额在7.3亿至8亿美元之间，至少是上一季度净利润的四倍。《财富》杂志估计，该公司的营收额约为10.5亿美元，销售回报率达到了惊人的60%。即便是最赚钱的软件和奢侈品企业，也难以达到如此高的利润率。
Coinbase是怎么做到的？
Coinbase在注册声明中透露，2020年间，其12.8亿美元的收益之中，有90%都来自于加密货币交易。其余收益则源自机构投资者持有其货币时所付的托管费。
在近期的加密货币热潮中，该交易所第一季度的交易量达到了3550亿美元。假设其90%的收入都来自于加密货币交易（参照去年的情况），那么每交易1美元的比特币、以太币或其他主流加密货币，该交易所就会收取约0.45%的费用。Coinbase在首次公开募股的文件中透露，他们会根据客户的交易量收费，交易量越大，费率就越低。据报道，其标准费率为0.5%。因此，考虑到给予大客户们的折扣，其第一季度的收益略低，倒也情有可原。
按照华尔街的标准，每交易一美元，利润差不多在0.5美分左右。比如说，高盛集团的环球市场部作为企业债券这一暴利领域的大型交易商，其2020年的营业利润率为38%，远不足以与Coinbase第一季度的辉煌战绩相提并论。但对高盛集团来说，相比于2019年，2020年该业务范畴的利润率翻了一倍多，已经相当不错了。
潜在问题：交易收入与比特币价值的剧烈波动息息相关
Coinbase在注册声明中指出，交易量的上升和下降与三大因素有关：一是交易客户的数量，以每月交易用户（MTUs）这一指标体现；二是波动水平；三是比特币引领下的加密货币价格走向，该货币的交易额占到了总交易额的40%以上。
Coinbase的未来之所以如此难以预料，原因就是，其客户数量会随着比特币价格的涨跌而起伏，而比特币价格对其他货币的售价有着巨大的影响。随着比特币的价格在峰值和峰值之间摇摆不定，其客户数量可能会跌入低谷，波动性也会随之提升。Coinbase可以抓住机会，获得较大的“价差”（做市商购入股票时与出售股票时的“出价”差额），不过，这样赚到的差价比收交易费赚的钱要少得多。
截至今日，Coinbase对比特币的依赖性依然非常高
因此，交易量和利润主要仰仗比特币的价格。Coinbase的收益与加密货币的价值波动有多大关系？当比特币的价格以x%的速率激增时，Coinbase的收益增长率甚至能达到1.5%——因为在费用水涨船高的同时，Coinbase还能吸引到大量的新客户，从更狂热的交易潮中获利。
2019年第二季度时，比特币的均价翻了一倍多，达到了8250美元，Coinbase的收益则增加了两倍，达到了2.11亿美元。当比特币的价格下跌时，比如2019年第四季度，Coinbase的收益也猛跌了近40%。事实证明，2020年第四季度至2021年第一季度，Coinbase的表现也符合这一规律。比特币的均价上涨了120%，达到了4.5万美元，Coinbase的收益也增长了两倍多，达到了18亿美元。
Coinbase：机构交易量越高，结果就越好
Coinbase 能够吸引对冲基金、银行和企业进入交易所交易，并促使他们将货币保存在其安全系数相当高的金库内。在为客户持有的2330亿美元中，一半多都属于各个机构。该公司提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中还显示，去年第四季度，这些基金经理和其他大客户贡献了570亿美元，占其810亿美元交易总额的三分之二。
Coinbase在这份文件中表明了一个对其未来至关重要的决定：提高机构交易量，减弱其对比特币价格上涨的依赖。“散客交易量比机构交易量更受比特币价格和加密资产波动率的影响。我们希望，随着机构交易量的提升，比特币价格与加密资产波动率和交易量之间的相关度能够有所下降。”所以阿姆斯特朗才会说，短时间内，Coinbase可能会退守盈亏平衡点。比特币价格的涨跌根本无法预测，一旦大幅下跌，Coinbase就可能退回到2020年的水平，甚至更糟。
Coinbase真的值1000亿美元吗？
答：看看第一季度的报告，你就会发现，它确实值这么多钱。挑战分为两部分。首先，投资者希望获得高回报，因为这几乎就是一支风险股票。因此，为了让股东们获得良好的、风险可控的收益，假设说，该公司股价的年增长率要达到8%。那么在这种情况下，截至2018年，Coinbase的开盘日估值预计将增加一倍以上，达到2160亿美元。即使以市盈率30倍的溢价计算，其利润也将达到72亿美元。这也不是不可能的事。毕竟，参考该公司今年第一季度的收益，其年度利润大概能达到44亿美元。
不过，第一季度的情况实属特殊：当时，比特币的价格翻了一倍多，波动性大幅上升，股迷们争相购买。随着时间的推移，Coinbase对比特币的依赖度可能会有所下降，但其利润仍将与所有加密货币的市值紧密挂钩。原因是：其交易收入源于按其交易的美元价收取的约0.5%的费用。当货币的价格翻倍时，在其他条件不变的情况下，比特币方面的收益也会翻倍。
Coinbase表示，他们会向大客户提供折扣，但以华尔街的标准来看，目前的折扣幅度还很小。折算下来，0.5%也是一笔非常庞大的收益。Coinbase之所以能够收取这些费用，是因为它是市场上最大的参与者；声誉良好；且竞争有限。不过，丰厚的费用还是会引来一些竞争者。投资者应该考虑到，首先，在未来很长一段时间内，加密货币的价格可能不会继续以这种前所未见的水平上涨；其次，激烈的费用争夺战可能会影响Coinbase在第一季度表现出的非凡盈利能力。
阿姆斯特朗提醒得很对，前方的道路将充满坎坷，并且，在很长一段时间内，可能都无法再攀高峰。投资者需要判断，在处于顶峰的情况下，比特币的价格是否还会继续上涨。（财富中文网）
译者：殷圆圆
4月6日，在原计划首次公开募股的八天前，Coinbase Global公开了2021年第一季度的惊人业绩。这个全美最大的加密货币交易所宣称，凭借着庞大的比特币交易量，在情况最好的时候，其收益能力堪比交易股票和债券的顶级华尔街银行。4月14日，Coinbase将在纳斯达克直接上市，这是个符合现今潮流的果敢决定，彰显了其首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗的独到思维。
根据近期自由市场上的股票出售状况，Coinbase的市值预计将达到1000亿美元，这是几个月之前的加密货币交易所根本不敢想象的事情。为了回报投资者，Coinbase的最终收益需要与第一季度的惊人水平相当，并在此基础上更上一层楼。然而，出人意料的是，阿姆斯特朗提醒追捧者们，要为“勇闯终极难关做好准备”，他严肃地表示，这趟旅程不仅万分艰险，而且要想实现持续性的盈利，还有很长的路要走。他在2月25日提交的首次公开募股注册声明中写道：“我们可能会在收益高的时候赚钱，在收益低的时候亏损，但我们的目标是大致保持平衡，并随着时间的推移而逐渐稳定下来。”
暂且保持平稳？这可不像是什么合理的预言，1000亿美元的估值将使得Coinbase成为美国第13大最有价值的金融服务公司，仅比高盛集团少120亿美元。要想评估Coinbase未来获得巨额收益的可能性，让投资者以超高价买入其股票的决定有所价值，关键得弄清楚其模式的运作方式。以下是Coinbase注册声明和第一季度报告中的六大要点。
Coinbase第一季度的收益在华尔街都实属罕见
Coinbase在第一季度的报告中宣布，其收益已跃升至18亿美元，相比于去年同期增长了9倍，也是2020年第四季度收益的三倍。其净利润上升额在7.3亿至8亿美元之间，至少是上一季度净利润的四倍。《财富》杂志估计，该公司的营收额约为10.5亿美元，销售回报率达到了惊人的60%。即便是最赚钱的软件和奢侈品企业，也难以达到如此高的利润率。
Coinbase是怎么做到的？
Coinbase在注册声明中透露，2020年间，其12.8亿美元的收益之中，有90%都来自于加密货币交易。其余收益则源自机构投资者持有其货币时所付的托管费。
在近期的加密货币热潮中，该交易所第一季度的交易量达到了3550亿美元。假设其90%的收入都来自于加密货币交易（参照去年的情况），那么每交易1美元的比特币、以太币或其他主流加密货币，该交易所就会收取约0.45%的费用。Coinbase在首次公开募股的文件中透露，他们会根据客户的交易量收费，交易量越大，费率就越低。据报道，其标准费率为0.5%。因此，考虑到给予大客户们的折扣，其第一季度的收益略低，倒也情有可原。
按照华尔街的标准，每交易一美元，利润差不多在0.5美分左右。比如说，高盛集团的环球市场部作为企业债券这一暴利领域的大型交易商，其2020年的营业利润率为38%，远不足以与Coinbase第一季度的辉煌战绩相提并论。但对高盛集团来说，相比于2019年，2020年该业务范畴的利润率翻了一倍多，已经相当不错了。
潜在问题：交易收入与比特币价值的剧烈波动息息相关
Coinbase在注册声明中指出，交易量的上升和下降与三大因素有关：一是交易客户的数量，以每月交易用户（MTUs）这一指标体现；二是波动水平；三是比特币引领下的加密货币价格走向，该货币的交易额占到了总交易额的40%以上。
Coinbase的未来之所以如此难以预料，原因就是，其客户数量会随着比特币价格的涨跌而起伏，而比特币价格对其他货币的售价有着巨大的影响。随着比特币的价格在峰值和峰值之间摇摆不定，其客户数量可能会跌入低谷，波动性也会随之提升。Coinbase可以抓住机会，获得较大的“价差”（做市商购入股票时与出售股票时的“出价”差额），不过，这样赚到的差价比收交易费赚的钱要少得多。
截至今日，Coinbase对比特币的依赖性依然非常高
因此，交易量和利润主要仰仗比特币的价格。Coinbase的收益与加密货币的价值波动有多大关系？当比特币的价格以x%的速率激增时，Coinbase的收益增长率甚至能达到1.5%——因为在费用水涨船高的同时，Coinbase还能吸引到大量的新客户，从更狂热的交易潮中获利。
2019年第二季度时，比特币的均价翻了一倍多，达到了8250美元，Coinbase的收益则增加了两倍，达到了2.11亿美元。当比特币的价格下跌时，比如2019年第四季度，Coinbase的收益也猛跌了近40%。事实证明，2020年第四季度至2021年第一季度，Coinbase的表现也符合这一规律。比特币的均价上涨了120%，达到了4.5万美元，Coinbase的收益也增长了两倍多，达到了18亿美元。
Coinbase：机构交易量越高，结果就越好
Coinbase 能够吸引对冲基金、银行和企业进入交易所交易，并促使他们将货币保存在其安全系数相当高的金库内。在为客户持有的2330亿美元中，一半多都属于各个机构。该公司提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中还显示，去年第四季度，这些基金经理和其他大客户贡献了570亿美元，占其810亿美元交易总额的三分之二。
Coinbase在这份文件中表明了一个对其未来至关重要的决定：提高机构交易量，减弱其对比特币价格上涨的依赖。“散客交易量比机构交易量更受比特币价格和加密资产波动率的影响。我们希望，随着机构交易量的提升，比特币价格与加密资产波动率和交易量之间的相关度能够有所下降。”所以阿姆斯特朗才会说，短时间内，Coinbase可能会退守盈亏平衡点。比特币价格的涨跌根本无法预测，一旦大幅下跌，Coinbase就可能退回到2020年的水平，甚至更糟。
Coinbase真的值1000亿美元吗？
答：看看第一季度的报告，你就会发现，它确实值这么多钱。挑战分为两部分。首先，投资者希望获得高回报，因为这几乎就是一支风险股票。因此，为了让股东们获得良好的、风险可控的收益，假设说，该公司股价的年增长率要达到8%。那么在这种情况下，截至2018年，Coinbase的开盘日估值预计将增加一倍以上，达到2160亿美元。即使以市盈率30倍的溢价计算，其利润也将达到72亿美元。这也不是不可能的事。毕竟，参考该公司今年第一季度的收益，其年度利润大概能达到44亿美元。
不过，第一季度的情况实属特殊：当时，比特币的价格翻了一倍多，波动性大幅上升，股迷们争相购买。随着时间的推移，Coinbase对比特币的依赖度可能会有所下降，但其利润仍将与所有加密货币的市值紧密挂钩。原因是：其交易收入源于按其交易的美元价收取的约0.5%的费用。当货币的价格翻倍时，在其他条件不变的情况下，比特币方面的收益也会翻倍。
Coinbase表示，他们会向大客户提供折扣，但以华尔街的标准来看，目前的折扣幅度还很小。折算下来，0.5%也是一笔非常庞大的收益。Coinbase之所以能够收取这些费用，是因为它是市场上最大的参与者；声誉良好；且竞争有限。不过，丰厚的费用还是会引来一些竞争者。投资者应该考虑到，首先，在未来很长一段时间内，加密货币的价格可能不会继续以这种前所未见的水平上涨；其次，激烈的费用争夺战可能会影响Coinbase在第一季度表现出的非凡盈利能力。
阿姆斯特朗提醒得很对，前方的道路将充满坎坷，并且，在很长一段时间内，可能都无法再攀高峰。投资者需要判断，在处于顶峰的情况下，比特币的价格是否还会继续上涨。（财富中文网）
译者：殷圆圆
On April 6, eight days before its planned IPO, Coinbase Global issued head-spinning results for the first quarter of 2021. The country's largest cryptocurrency exchange disclosed profitability from trading the likes of Bitcoin so gigantic that it waxes what the top Wall Street banks garner handling stocks and bonds in the best of times. Those results will rally crypto-obsessed investors on April 14, when Coinbase shares will debut on the Nasdaq in a direct listing, a trendy, damn-the-establishment choice that epitomizes the offbeat thinking of CEO Brian Armstrong.
Based on its shares sold recently in private markets, Coinbase is expected to command a market cap of around $100 billion, a figure unimaginable for a crypto exchange just a few months ago. To deliver for investors, it will eventually need to mint the kind of spectacular earnings it displayed in Q1, and race from there. But surprisingly, Armstrong is warning fans to expect the ultimate "fasten your seatbelts play," cautioning that the ride will not only be bumpy as hell, but that consistent profitability is a long way off. As he stated in the IPO registration statement filed on Feb. 25: "We may earn money when revenues are high, and we may lose money when revenues are low, but our goal is to roughly operate at breakeven, smoothed out over time, for the time being."
Operate at breakeven for the time being? That doesn't sound like a forecast that justifies a $100 billion cap that would make Coinbase the 13th most valuable financial services company in America, only $12 billion behind Goldman Sachs. To assess Coinbase's chances of achieving the huge future earnings required to reward investors buying at what's expected to be a superrich price, it's crucial to understand how its model works. Here are six takeaways from its registration statement and first-quarter release.
In Q1, Coinbase boasted returns that Wall Street seldom sees
In the Q1 update, Coinbase stated that revenues jumped to $1.8 billion, a ninefold leap over the previous year and triple the figure for Q4 of 2020. Net income rose to between $730 million and $800 million, at least quadruple the previous quarter's result. By Fortune’s estimate, operating income hit around $1.05 billion. That's a staggering return on sales of almost 60%. Not even the most profitable software and luxury goods enterprises approach those sumptuous margins.
How did Coinbase notch such amazing numbers?
In the registration statement, Coinbase discloses that in 2020, it collected almost 90% of its $1.28 billion in revenues from trading cryptocurrencies. The balance flowed from such sources as custody fees charged to institutional investors for holding their coins.
The exchange feasted from the recent crypto frenzy by doing $355 billion in trades in Q1. Assuming 90% of its revenues came from trading, as they did last year, it pocketed around 0.45% fee for every $1 in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major tokens it bought and sold. In its IPO filing, Coinbase discloses that it charges its customers fees based on the volumes they trade—the bigger the trades, the lower the fees. It's been reported that the standard fee is 0.5%. Hence, the slightly lower number it collected in Q1 makes sense, given discounts awarded the biggest clients.
A margin of almost half a cent on every dollar traded is gigantic by Wall Street standards. For example, Goldman Sachs’s Global Markets segment, a huge trader in the lucrative domain of corporate bonds, posted an operating margin of 38% in 2020, way below Coinbase's Q1 bonanza. And that was in a fantastic year for Goldman, when the business more than doubled its 2019 margins.
The potential problem: Trading revenues track the crazy swings in Bitcoin
In the registration statement, Coinbase states that trading volumes rise and retreat following three factors: First, the number of customers who trade, represented by the metric called monthly transacting users, or MTUs. Second, the level of volatility. Third, the trend in prices of cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin, the token accounting for over 40% of its trades.
Here's what makes Coinbase's future so unpredictable: The ranks of users rise and fall with the price of Bitcoin, which strongly influences what rival coins sell for. As Bitcoin's price careens from peak to peak, it plumbs valleys in between, raising volatility. That helps Coinbase collect bigger "spreads" (the difference between the "offers" at which it purchases as a market maker versus the "bids" at which it sells), although those spreads are a much smaller moneymaker than its transactions fees.
As of today, Coinbase is highly dependent on the price of Bitcoin
Hence, the forces that drive trading volumes, and profits, are primarily driven by the price of Bitcoin. How closely related are Coinbase's revenues and the fluctuations in the signature cryptocurrency? When Bitcoin explodes by x percent, Coinbase does even better, as much as 1.5x—because it both gets higher fees due to the higher price, and at the same time attracts a flood of new users and benefits from a more feverish fever chart.
In Q2 of 2019, Bitcoin's average price more than doubled to $8,250, while Coinbase's revenues tripled to $211 million. A fading Bitcoin cuts the other way: When it retreated in Q4 of 2019, Coinbase took an outsize hit of almost 40%. The Q4 2020 to first quarter 2021 proved true to form. Bitcoin rose on average by 120% to around $45,000, and Coinbase revenue more than tripled to $1.8 billion.
Coinbase: More institutional trading means smoother results
Coinbase has done an extraordinary job luring hedge funds, banks, and corporations to both trade on its exchange and park their coins in its well-protected vaults. Just over half of the $233 billion it holds for customers belong to institutions. Its SEC filing also reveals that in Q4 of last year, those money managers and other large clients contributed $57 billion, or two-thirds of its $81 billion in trades.
In the filing, Coinbase makes a call that's crucial to its future: that more institutional trading will lessen its reliance on the rising price of Bitcoin. "Retail trading volume is more influenced by the Bitcoin price and Crypto Asset Volatility than institutional Trading Volume. As institutional trading increases, we expect the correlation between the Bitcoin price and Crypto Asset Volatility and Trading Volume to decrease." This helps explain why Armstrong says that Coinbase may retreat to breakeven for a while. Bitcoin's spikes and descents are completely unpredictable, and a sharp fall could send Coinbase back to 2020 numbers, or even below.
Is Coinbase really worth $100 billion?
Answer: When you look at the Q1 result, you'd have to say it could indeed be worth that princely number. The challenge is twofold. First, investors will want a high return since this is the epitome of a chancy stock. So to give its shareholders good, risk-adjusted gains, let's say that it would have to deliver 8% annual increases in share price. In that scenario, Coinbase would more than double its expected opening day valuation to $216 billion by 2018. Even at a premium multiple of 30 times earnings, its profits bogey would be $7.2 billion. That's not impossible. After all, it made $4.4 billion on an annualized basis in Q1 of this year.
But that happened under extraordinary circumstances, in which the price of Bitcoin more than doubled, volatility jumped, and fans came rushing to buy. It is likely that Coinbase will be less dependent on Bitcoin's price over time. But its profits will remain tightly tied to the market cap of all cryptocurrencies. The reason: Its trading revenues flow from the around 0.5% fees it charges on the dollar value of its trades. When coins double in price, Bitcoin gets twice as much revenue, all other things being equal.
Coinbase says it's offering discounts to big customers, but those discounts so far appear small by Wall Street standards. The 0.5% is also a big, big number. Coinbase is able to get those premium fees because it's the biggest player out there; it harbors a sterling reputation; and competition is limited. But fat fees are a magnet for rivals. Investors should consider that first, crypto prices may not keep rising from these already unheard-of levels well into the future, and second, that an intense fight for fees will likely crimp the kind of extraordinary profitability Coinbase displayed in Q1.
Armstrong was right on to caution the path ahead will be rocky and may not ascend for a long time. Investors need to decide whether with Bitcoin at a mountaintop, it will ascend at all.
