饱受疫情冲击的美国经济，为何没有陷入大萧条
为什么我们并非处于另一场大萧条之中？
这是一个很大的谜团，至少对大多数人来说是这样。美国经济在今年春天遭遇了“休克式打击”，4月24日新冠疫情每日新增病例达到顶峰——36741例。美国GDP出现了有记录以来的最大跌幅，数千万工人几乎随即失去了工作。因此在眼下，有鉴于每日新增病例达到了20万例，为什么说我们并没有遭遇同样的经济萧条，或更加糟糕的经济萧条。
当前的疫情展望比以往任何时候都更加悲观。疾控中心主任罗伯特•雷德菲尔德称，接下来的几个月将是“美国公共卫生历史上最困难的时刻。”各大医院都已满负荷运转。雷德菲尔德预测，新冠疫情死亡人数可能在明年2月底之前达到45万，当前约为27.7万。
经济学家似乎愉快地忘掉了这一切。Consensus Economics对26名经济学家的调查显示，美国经济本季度的年化增速将达到3.6%，明年1季度将达到3.1%。有少数几个大胆之徒则给出了悲观的预测。摩根大通团队预测明年一季度为-1%。作为对比，还记得今年第二季度-31.4%的收缩吗。
然而，这些乐观的经济学家倒有可能是正确的，至少从广义来讲是如此。他们引用了四个因素来证明其看似无厘头的乐观情绪：
经济很快做出了调整。2020年，经济中近乎一切事情都在以方程赛车式的速度发生。今年春天，美国GDP在数周内出现了大幅下跌，而以往在大萧条期间这一跌幅则是经历了三年半的时间。然后，它又在数月内将大多数损失找了回来。经济学家称，这类速度的一个有力优势在于，经济很少出现“令人恐慌的现象”。如果下行时期较长，工人们的技能会退化，机器会老化或过时。但这一次不一样。各大公司都在快速创新，而且尽管很多企业破产了，但企业家的创业率至少达到了近十年以来的新高。经济在整个夏季新增病例趋平的环境下继续增长，而且在秋季新增病例抬头时依然保持着增长。
疫苗即将到来。即便如此，要让绝大部分人群在数个月内获得免疫也不现实，但仅仅疫苗即将到来的消息便让很多公司开始为公司的增长进行规划。尽管企业依然得面临残酷的寒冬，但它总比潜在的无限期封锁要好的多。高盛在最新预测（名为“疫苗带来的V形恢复”）中指出，“随着人口在明年春天和夏天开始对病毒免疫，我们预计受抑领域的经济活动会出现大幅反弹，例如旅行、住宿和餐饮服务。”
庞大的刺激计划和美联储的持续支持也在其预测之中。这些举措至关重要。这篇积极的预测有一个前提，那就是国会出台至少一项类似于今春《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》和其他措施的刺激方案。高盛认为一个万亿美元的刺激计划可能会在拜登1月20日上任之前“出台”。摩根大通预测明年一季度会出现1%的收缩，它也认为政府会推出万亿美元的刺激计划，但要到明年一季度几近结束时才会推出。
经济依然处于走出低谷阶段。美国经济在疫情冲击之前一路高歌，即便在经历了几个月的反弹之后，当前的产值依然达不到一年前的水平。这意味着美国拥有待启用的闲置资本和劳动力。因此，至少促进增长的组件要比之前更多。经济当然还有增长的空间：即便经历了最近的激增之后，GDP还得再增长3.6%才能达到2019年底的水平。
经济学家在预测衰退方面是出了名的犹豫，而且不管怎么样，没有人体验过像此次疫情这样的经历。如果新冠疫情案例和死亡人数在经济最近的下探轨道中继续增加，经济摆脱下滑命运的可能性实在是渺茫。然而，疫情一直都充满了惊喜，其中一个很可能是：即便严冬如预测般漫长、黑暗，但美国至少能够保障人民的物资需求。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
为什么我们并非处于另一场大萧条之中？
这是一个很大的谜团，至少对大多数人来说是这样。美国经济在今年春天遭遇了“休克式打击”，4月24日新冠疫情每日新增病例达到顶峰——36741例。美国GDP出现了有记录以来的最大跌幅，数千万工人几乎随即失去了工作。因此在眼下，有鉴于每日新增病例达到了20万例，为什么说我们并没有遭遇同样的经济萧条，或更加糟糕的经济萧条。
当前的疫情展望比以往任何时候都更加悲观。疾控中心主任罗伯特•雷德菲尔德称，接下来的几个月将是“美国公共卫生历史上最困难的时刻。”各大医院都已满负荷运转。雷德菲尔德预测，新冠疫情死亡人数可能在明年2月底之前达到45万，当前约为27.7万。
经济学家似乎愉快地忘掉了这一切。Consensus Economics对26名经济学家的调查显示，美国经济本季度的年化增速将达到3.6%，明年1季度将达到3.1%。有少数几个大胆之徒则给出了悲观的预测。摩根大通团队预测明年一季度为-1%。作为对比，还记得今年第二季度-31.4%的收缩吗。
然而，这些乐观的经济学家倒有可能是正确的，至少从广义来讲是如此。他们引用了四个因素来证明其看似无厘头的乐观情绪：
经济很快做出了调整。2020年，经济中近乎一切事情都在以方程赛车式的速度发生。今年春天，美国GDP在数周内出现了大幅下跌，而以往在大萧条期间这一跌幅则是经历了三年半的时间。然后，它又在数月内将大多数损失找了回来。经济学家称，这类速度的一个有力优势在于，经济很少出现“令人恐慌的现象”。如果下行时期较长，工人们的技能会退化，机器会老化或过时。但这一次不一样。各大公司都在快速创新，而且尽管很多企业破产了，但企业家的创业率至少达到了近十年以来的新高。经济在整个夏季新增病例趋平的环境下继续增长，而且在秋季新增病例抬头时依然保持着增长。
疫苗即将到来。即便如此，要让绝大部分人群在数个月内获得免疫也不现实，但仅仅疫苗即将到来的消息便让很多公司开始为公司的增长进行规划。尽管企业依然得面临残酷的寒冬，但它总比潜在的无限期封锁要好的多。高盛在最新预测（名为“疫苗带来的V形恢复”）中指出，“随着人口在明年春天和夏天开始对病毒免疫，我们预计受抑领域的经济活动会出现大幅反弹，例如旅行、住宿和餐饮服务。”
庞大的刺激计划和美联储的持续支持也在其预测之中。这些举措至关重要。这篇积极的预测有一个前提，那就是国会出台至少一项类似于今春《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》和其他措施的刺激方案。高盛认为一个万亿美元的刺激计划可能会在拜登1月20日上任之前“出台”。摩根大通预测明年一季度会出现1%的收缩，它也认为政府会推出万亿美元的刺激计划，但要到明年一季度几近结束时才会推出。
经济依然处于走出低谷阶段。美国经济在疫情冲击之前一路高歌，即便在经历了几个月的反弹之后，当前的产值依然达不到一年前的水平。这意味着美国拥有待启用的闲置资本和劳动力。因此，至少促进增长的组件要比之前更多。经济当然还有增长的空间：即便经历了最近的激增之后，GDP还得再增长3.6%才能达到2019年底的水平。
经济学家在预测衰退方面是出了名的犹豫，而且不管怎么样，没有人体验过像此次疫情这样的经历。如果新冠疫情案例和死亡人数在经济最近的下探轨道中继续增加，经济摆脱下滑命运的可能性实在是渺茫。然而，疫情一直都充满了惊喜，其中一个很可能是：即便严冬如预测般漫长、黑暗，但美国至少能够保障人民的物资需求。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Why aren’t we in another Great Depression?
It’s a major mystery, at least for most people. The U.S. economy crashed spectacularly last spring when the number of daily COVID-19 cases peaked on April 24 with 36,741 new cases. GDP plunged in the most vertiginous drop ever recorded, and millions of workers lost their jobs almost instantly. So now, with daily new cases around 200,000, why aren’t we suffering the same thing—or something much worse?
The pandemic outlook is the grimmest it has ever been. CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says the next few months will be among “the most difficult in the public health history of this nation.” Hospitals are filled near capacity. Redfield predicted that total COVID-19 deaths, recently around 277,000, could approach 450,000 by the end of February.
Economists seem happily oblivious of it all. The view of 26 economists polled by Consensus Economics is that the U.S. economy will grow at a 3.6% annualized rate in this quarter and by 3.1% in next year’s first quarter. A few brave souls are gloomier. JPMorgan’s team predicts -1% next quarter. For comparison, remember that the contraction in this year’s second quarter was -31.4%.
Yet these upbeat economists just might be right, at least broadly speaking. They cite four factors to justify their seemingly clueless optimism:
The economy has adapted quickly. Nearly everything in the 2020 economy has happened at Formula 1 speed. Last spring, U.S. GDP fell further in a matter of weeks than it did over three and a half years in the Great Depression. It then recovered most of that loss in just a few months. A strong benefit of such speed is that the economy suffered little “scarring,” as economists say. In a long downturn, workers’ skills get rusty and machinery deteriorates or becomes outdated. Not this time. Companies innovated fast, and while many businesses failed, entrepreneurs started new businesses at the highest rates in at least a decade. The economy resumed growing through the summer lull in new cases and kept growing as cases increased into the fall.
Vaccines are on the way. They won’t immunize a significant part of the population for months, but just knowing they’re en route prompts companies to start planning for an upturn. While the winter may still be bleak for businesses, it won’t be as bleak as if they were looking at potential lockdowns indefinitely. Goldman Sachs’s latest forecast—titled “V(accine)-Shaped Recovery”—predicts, “As the population builds immunity to the virus in the spring and summer, we expect economic activity to rebound sharply in depressed sectors such as travel, accommodation, and food services.”
A substantial stimulus package and continued Fed support are assumed. These are crucial. The upbeat forecasts are contingent on Congress enacting at least one stimulus package analogous to, if not as big as, the CARES Act and other measures last spring. Goldman assumes a trillion-dollar package “potentially enacted” before Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20. JPMorgan, which forecasts a 1% contraction in the first quarter, also assumes a trillion-dollar package but not until the quarter is nearly over. Everyone assumes low interest rates from the Fed as far as the eye can see.
The economy is still climbing out of a hole. The U.S. economy was flying high before the pandemic hit, and even after a few months of rebound, it still isn’t producing as much as it was a year ago. That means the country has capital and labor sitting idle, waiting to be used, so at least the components of growth are more available than they were. There’s certainly room to grow: Even after its recent surge, GDP would have to increase 3.6% just to regain its level at the end of 2019.
Economists are notoriously reluctant to forecast a recession, and, in any case, no one has been through an experience like this pandemic. If COVID-19 cases and deaths continue rising on their recent steep trajectory, it’s hard to see how the economy could escape another decline. But the pandemic has been full of surprises, and one of them may well be that even through the projected long, dark winter, the country may at least be able to sustain people’s material well-being.
