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新冠疫苗研发获得进展,“救活”航空业?

新冠疫苗研发获得进展,“救活”航空业?

David Meyer 2020年11月18日
疫苗研发的逐步成果是旅客信心恢复的最大因素。

疫苗的好消息触动了旅游业的神经——许多乘客都表达了对重踏旅途的渴望。

11月17日,总部设在英国的廉价航空公司易捷航空公布了其惨淡的业绩单——25年以来首次年度亏损,达到16.8亿美元。但这也映射着一线希望。

易捷航空的首席执行官约翰·伦德格伦说,当辉瑞和BioNTech在11月9日宣布其疫苗试验结果时,该公司的预订量猛增了50%。据路透社报道,伦德格伦认为这一增长势头持续到11月16日,因为当时Moderna也宣布了一种非常有效的候选疫苗。

上周,英国的旅游攻略及预订网站也出现了类似的迹象。

在辉瑞和BioNTech的测试结果公布后,携程旗下订票网站Skyscanner显示,在明年春季和夏季,旅游搜索量将实现48%的周增长。该公司的高级品牌总监乔·麦克林托克表示,疫苗研发的逐步成果是“旅客信心恢复的最大因素”。

与此同时,TravelSupermarket网站的数据显示,首次疫苗接种的消息公布之后,该网站的访问量每周增长54%。其发言人艾玛·库尔斯特称,这一消息正是“行业和游客都亟需的一剂疫苗”。

库尔斯特在一份邮件声明中表示:“与前一周周末相比,刚刚过去的这个周末,网站的旅游搜索量和预订量都实现了大幅增长。”

数年复苏

疫苗消息带来航空股价飙升的原因不难看出,但仍然有两个注意点需要牢记在心。

一是航空公司正在为明年的航班提供“性价比极高”的优惠,以吸引顾客乘坐飞机。因此只要有一丝迹象表明到那时乘坐飞机足够安全,不少顾客就自觉能够承担风险,提前订票。

二是疫苗公司在通告中称其功效水平超90%,但也仅仅是迈出了世界恢复常态的第一步。紧接着还需要最终试验结果支撑、药监部门认证,还有生产及向世界数十亿人口分发疫苗的庞大工作等待完成。

(至于最后一点:国际航空运输协会于11月16日发布了航空货运业指导意见,以帮助航空业做好准备,应对规模空前的疫苗处理和运输工作。)

投资银行Liberum在11月 17日的一份报告中说,疫苗官宣表明“(我们)与病毒及其风险共存的时间不会再变长了,更不会遥遥无期”。其补充说:“不过,短期内所有乘客涌回航站楼的场景还不会出现。”

Liberum称:"我们仍然预计,需求复苏将需要数年——特别是在家庭收入和就业受到经济影响的情况下。"

数次检测

疫苗仅是保证飞行安全的重要因素之一,快速有效的核酸检测也很重要。在检测方面,尽管有迹象表明新进展将至,但目前的快速抗原检测还不太可靠。(埃隆·马斯克“忽阴忽阳”的数次检测闹剧足以证明这一点。)

即使抗原检测足够可信,制度协调也十分重要,以确保测试结果在两端均可信。但现在看来,协调情况不太行。

11月17日,路透社报道称,许多欧盟国家政府反对就新冠快速检测制定共同规则。

欧洲的航空公司由此面临尴尬处境:国内航班已经采用上述检测方式,但难以在跨国航线上广泛部署开来。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

疫苗的好消息触动了旅游业的神经——许多乘客都表达了对重踏旅途的渴望。

11月17日,总部设在英国的廉价航空公司易捷航空公布了其惨淡的业绩单——25年以来首次年度亏损,达到16.8亿美元。但这也映射着一线希望。

易捷航空的首席执行官约翰·伦德格伦说,当辉瑞和BioNTech在11月9日宣布其疫苗试验结果时,该公司的预订量猛增了50%。据路透社报道,伦德格伦认为这一增长势头持续到11月16日,因为当时Moderna也宣布了一种非常有效的候选疫苗。

上周,英国的旅游攻略及预订网站也出现了类似的迹象。

在辉瑞和BioNTech的测试结果公布后,携程旗下订票网站Skyscanner显示,在明年春季和夏季,旅游搜索量将实现48%的周增长。该公司的高级品牌总监乔·麦克林托克表示,疫苗研发的逐步成果是“旅客信心恢复的最大因素”。

与此同时,TravelSupermarket网站的数据显示,首次疫苗接种的消息公布之后,该网站的访问量每周增长54%。其发言人艾玛·库尔斯特称,这一消息正是“行业和游客都亟需的一剂疫苗”。

库尔斯特在一份邮件声明中表示:“与前一周周末相比,刚刚过去的这个周末,网站的旅游搜索量和预订量都实现了大幅增长。”

数年复苏

疫苗消息带来航空股价飙升的原因不难看出,但仍然有两个注意点需要牢记在心。

一是航空公司正在为明年的航班提供“性价比极高”的优惠,以吸引顾客乘坐飞机。因此只要有一丝迹象表明到那时乘坐飞机足够安全,不少顾客就自觉能够承担风险,提前订票。

二是疫苗公司在通告中称其功效水平超90%,但也仅仅是迈出了世界恢复常态的第一步。紧接着还需要最终试验结果支撑、药监部门认证,还有生产及向世界数十亿人口分发疫苗的庞大工作等待完成。

(至于最后一点:国际航空运输协会于11月16日发布了航空货运业指导意见,以帮助航空业做好准备,应对规模空前的疫苗处理和运输工作。)

投资银行Liberum在11月 17日的一份报告中说,疫苗官宣表明“(我们)与病毒及其风险共存的时间不会再变长了,更不会遥遥无期”。其补充说:“不过,短期内所有乘客涌回航站楼的场景还不会出现。”

Liberum称:"我们仍然预计,需求复苏将需要数年——特别是在家庭收入和就业受到经济影响的情况下。"

数次检测

疫苗仅是保证飞行安全的重要因素之一,快速有效的核酸检测也很重要。在检测方面,尽管有迹象表明新进展将至,但目前的快速抗原检测还不太可靠。(埃隆·马斯克“忽阴忽阳”的数次检测闹剧足以证明这一点。)

即使抗原检测足够可信,制度协调也十分重要,以确保测试结果在两端均可信。但现在看来,协调情况不太行。

11月17日,路透社报道称,许多欧盟国家政府反对就新冠快速检测制定共同规则。

欧洲的航空公司由此面临尴尬处境:国内航班已经采用上述检测方式,但难以在跨国航线上广泛部署开来。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

Good news on the vaccine front has had an immediate and tantalizing effect on the travel sector, suggesting many passengers are raring to get going again.

On November 17, the U.K.-based low-cost airline EasyJet issued results that were mostly gloomy—it posted its first annual loss, of $1.68 billion, in its quarter-century history. But it also pointed to a glimmer of hope.

When Pfizer and BioNTech announced their promising COVID-19 vaccine trial results on November 9, said EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren, the carrier’s bookings surged by 50%. According to Reuters, he added that the momentum continued on November 16, when Moderna also announced a very high efficacy for its candidate vaccine.

Similar indications came last week from British travel comparison and booking websites.

Following the Pfizer/BioNTech trial-results announcement, Skyscanner said it saw a 48% week-on-week increase in searches for travel next spring and summer. The firm’s senior brand director, Jo McClintock, said the advances in vaccine development were “the single biggest factor in restoring traveler confidence.”

Meanwhile, TravelSupermarket.com saw a 54% week-on-week uplift on that first vaccine announcement, with spokeswoman Emma Coulthurst calling the news “the positive shot which the industry and travelers need.

“The weekend just gone saw a further increase in holiday searching and booking compared with the previous weekend,” Coulthurst said in an emailed statement.

“Multiyear recovery”

It’s not hard to see why the announcements sent airline stocks soaring. However, there are two notable factors to bear in mind here.

One is that airlines are currently offering fantastic deals on flights next year, as they try to tempt people back into the air. So with even a hint that flying might be safe enough within that timescale, many people can afford to take a chance and book now.

The other thing to remember is that the vaccine announcements, in which the pharma firms hailed efficacy levels above 90%, mark only a first step toward a return to normality. Final trial results are still needed, then authorization by drug regulators, and then the mammoth task of producing and distributing the vaccines to billions of people around the world.

(On that last front, the International Air Transport Association [IATA] issued guidance to the air cargo industry on November 16, to help it prepare for its role in handling and transporting vaccine doses at an unprecedented scale.)

In a November 17 note, the investment bank Liberum said the vaccine announcements suggest there won’t be a “protracted or even indefinite period of having to live with the virus and its risks.” However, it wasn’t too bullish on the prospect of all passengers flocking back to terminals anytime soon.

“We still expect a multiyear recovery for demand, especially with the full economic fallout on household incomes and employment yet to be seen,” Liberum said.

Testing times

Vaccines will also be only one element of making flying safe again, albeit a major one. Speedy and effective coronavirus testing will also be important, and—while promising new testing developments lie just around the corner—today’s rapid antigen tests are not very reliable. (Just ask Elon Musk.)

Even considering those antigen tests, a level of political coordination will be needed to ensure that their results are trusted on both ends of a journey. And things aren’t looking great there.

Also on November 17, Reuters reported that many EU governments oppose the establishment of common rules around rapid COVID-19 tests.

The situation leaves European airlines, which are using such tests for domestic flights, largely unable to deploy them for international routes.

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