数据证明，奥巴马第一任期内股市表现远超特朗普
至少在股市表现方面，奥巴马完胜特朗普。
《财富》杂志统计了截至11月3日的股市收盘数据，统计特朗普和奥巴马第一个任期从就职日到选举日的市场表现。从投资者角度来看，特朗普任内市场表现相当好：期间标普500指数上涨了45.7%，年化回报率为10.5%。
但该数字仍然无法与贝拉克•奥巴马执政时期的收益相提并论。在奥巴马的第一个任期内，标普指数上涨77.4%，年化回报率达16.3%。
当然了，除了纯粹运气之外，每位总统接手的股市还与潜在经济状况有关。
《财富》杂志的撰稿人本•卡尔森最近研究了总统任期开始时的经济状况，一直回溯到1881年切斯特•亚瑟入主白宫。正如卡尔森所写：“观察任期开始和结束的估值，有助于理解总统在任期间的变化。柯立芝在任恰逢轰轰烈烈的20年代，大萧条之前股市从极低估值变成疯狂的高估值。比尔•克林顿的两个任期内，市场估值从高于平均水平升至历史最高水平。乔治•W•布什在任之际，涨幅全都抹平，而奥巴马上任正好赶上新一轮牛市起步。”
事实上，在奥巴马的两届任期内，标普500指数持续上涨了166%。
但是，无论今年大选谁获胜，“总统任期开始时都将面临史上最具挑战的市场环境，”卡尔森写道。之前估值已经呈爆炸式增长，因此新总统将上任时将面临有史以来第二高的资本充足率（资本充足率由罗伯特•希勒提出，是公认的衡量股票价值标准）。卡尔森还表示，新总统还要面临“140多年来历史上最低利率。”
由此可能解释，为什么股市本身就预测领导层的变动。根据《财富》杂志詹•维茨纳的说法，如果大选前三个月市场下跌，从历史上来看权力很可能出现更迭。截至10月30日周五收盘，标准普尔500指数下跌0.6%。“尽管跌幅不大，但三个月里标普500指数走低表明，现任政党，也就是特朗普将落选离开白宫，由民主党人取而代之。”维茨纳写道。（财富中文网）
补充报道：斯科特•德卡洛
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
至少在股市表现方面，奥巴马完胜特朗普。
《财富》杂志统计了截至11月3日的股市收盘数据，统计特朗普和奥巴马第一个任期从就职日到选举日的市场表现。从投资者角度来看，特朗普任内市场表现相当好：期间标普500指数上涨了45.7%，年化回报率为10.5%。
但该数字仍然无法与贝拉克•奥巴马执政时期的收益相提并论。在奥巴马的第一个任期内，标普指数上涨77.4%，年化回报率达16.3%。
当然了，除了纯粹运气之外，每位总统接手的股市还与潜在经济状况有关。
《财富》杂志的撰稿人本•卡尔森最近研究了总统任期开始时的经济状况，一直回溯到1881年切斯特•亚瑟入主白宫。正如卡尔森所写：“观察任期开始和结束的估值，有助于理解总统在任期间的变化。柯立芝在任恰逢轰轰烈烈的20年代，大萧条之前股市从极低估值变成疯狂的高估值。比尔•克林顿的两个任期内，市场估值从高于平均水平升至历史最高水平。乔治•W•布什在任之际，涨幅全都抹平，而奥巴马上任正好赶上新一轮牛市起步。”
事实上，在奥巴马的两届任期内，标普500指数持续上涨了166%。
但是，无论今年大选谁获胜，“总统任期开始时都将面临史上最具挑战的市场环境，”卡尔森写道。之前估值已经呈爆炸式增长，因此新总统将上任时将面临有史以来第二高的资本充足率（资本充足率由罗伯特•希勒提出，是公认的衡量股票价值标准）。卡尔森还表示，新总统还要面临“140多年来历史上最低利率。”
由此可能解释，为什么股市本身就预测领导层的变动。根据《财富》杂志詹•维茨纳的说法，如果大选前三个月市场下跌，从历史上来看权力很可能出现更迭。截至10月30日周五收盘，标准普尔500指数下跌0.6%。“尽管跌幅不大，但三个月里标普500指数走低表明，现任政党，也就是特朗普将落选离开白宫，由民主党人取而代之。”维茨纳写道。（财富中文网）
补充报道：斯科特•德卡洛
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Obama beats Trump—at least when it comes to stock market performance.
Fortune ran the numbers as of the stock market close yesterday to measure market performance from Inauguration Day through Election Day for the first terms of both Trump and Obama. Trump’s tenure was certainly a good stretch for investors: The S&P 500 index rose 45.7% over that time, for an annualized return of 10.5% a year.
But that still doesn’t come close to matching the gains seen under Barack Obama. During Obama’s first term, the S&P was up 77.4% for an annualized total return of 16.3%.
Obviously, the stock market that each President inherits has everything to do with underlying economic conditions, as well as sheer luck.
Fortune contributor Ben Carlson recently looked at economic conditions at the beginning of presidential terms going back to 1881 when Chester Arthur moved into the White House. As Carlson writes, “Looking at the starting and ending valuations can be instructive to understand how things changed during a President’s time in office. The Coolidge years took place during the Roaring Twenties, which saw stocks go from insanely low valuations to insanely high valuations just before the onset of the Great Depression. Clinton’s two terms saw markets go from above-average valuations to the highest valuations in history. George W. Bush was in office as those valuations were worked off while Obama timed the lows pretty closely for the start of the next bull market.”
Indeed, over Obama’s two terms, the S&P 500 would go on to rise 166%.
But whoever wins this year’s race “will inherit one of the most challenging market environments to start a presidential term in history,” writes Carlson. Valuations have exploded—so stocks will have the second-highest starting CAPE ratio ever for a President (The CAPE ratio is Robert Shiller’s well-regarded metric for valuing stocks). And, Carlson adds, the President will be dealing with “by far the lowest interest rates in the 140 or so year history of this data.”
That could give some clues as to why the stock market itself predicted a change in leadership. According to Fortune’s Jen Wieczner, if the market is down over the three months preceding an election, that’s a historically reliable signal that there will be a change of power. As of the market close on Friday, Oct. 30, the S&P 500 was down 0.6%. “Though the dip is minor, the negative S&P 500 performance over those three months indicates that the incumbent party—in other words, President Trump—will be voted out of the White House and replaced with a Democrat,” Wieczner wrote.
Additional reporting by Scott DeCarlo.
