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风险已至?国际能源署对石油需求发出警告

风险已至?国际能源署对石油需求发出警告

Katherine Dunn 2020年10月14日
石油出口国必须从根本上改变其经济结构,以应对残酷的现实。

受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响,全球石油需求预计将持续数年受挫。石油出口国必须从根本上改变其经济结构,以应对残酷的现实。

这是国际能源署(IEA)的执行干事法提赫•比罗尔于10月13日传递的信息。该机构再次下调了石油前景预期。比罗尔警告说,由于新冠肺炎疫情,未来几年,石油需求将会疲软。

但即便在疫情消退之后,市场前景也将提振困难。IEA表示,到20世纪20年代末,石油需求才能达到与疫情前趋平的状态——IEA更喜欢用“平稳期”一词,而不是“石油峰值”。IEA的这一预测与欧佩克在上周的预测基本趋同。

经济中某些明显部分将发生转变。IEA指出:“汽车的石油需求在未来十年内将维持在2019年的水平,到2030年后则将下降。”

期望值不高的未来市场,叠加当前石油需求的下降和价格的波动,以及世界多国气候政策的转变——意味着石油国家必须找到其他方式来维持其经济发展。

比罗尔于10月13日在接受彭博电视台采访时说:“他们必须趁早做好准备。”

前景不佳

IEA在其年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中警告说,预计新冠肺炎疫情对全球石油需求的阻碍至少会持续到2023年,甚至更晚。

10月13日,比罗尔说:“石油需求的复苏可能不会像我们几个月前认为的那样快,主要是因为世界各国政府并没有很好地控制疫情蔓延。”

现在,石油需求复苏的关键因素是新冠肺炎疫情——更确切地说,是全球经济——何时才可以恢复到大流行前的水平。就目前而言,情况看起来并不好。

“经济反弹可能比人们所希望的要来得慢。”比罗尔说。他认为,如果政府不改变政策,市场需求也不会向其他形式能源转变。

然而,这还不是唯一的逆境。自新冠肺炎全球蔓延以来,IEA一直警告称,任何经济复苏都必须囊括向低碳能源的转型,包括从氢到核能等各种能源形式。

比罗尔说,这一转变让那些依赖石油和天然气收入的国家改头换面,在他们当中,很多国家的经济与油价呈“一对一”的联动关系。

他补充说,能源结构的多元化需要切实的财政手段。仿佛“旧事幻现”:这个情节早已老生常谈,但到现在为止,(多元化)还是没有实现。

比罗尔表示,这种(对石油的)依赖是“充满风险且荆棘丛生的”(risky and dangerous),甚至包括沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克在内的石油经济体也越来越关注相关警告和呼吁。

面临风险的不仅仅是国家。随着疫情缓解,油价下跌,包括休斯顿和卡尔加里在内的加拿大城市(和地区)也在努力应对他们的经济未来。

IEA并没有公布“石油峰值”的具体日期,比罗尔表示,业内认为石油需求峰值尚未过去,并预测随着经济复苏,需求将会回升。与此同时,英国石油(BP)等行业巨头也预测,石油需求实际上可能永远不会复苏,并提出了峰值已经过去的可能。

包括BP在内的几家老牌石油和天然气公司已经承诺到2050年实现碳排放“净零”的目标,这也表明,即使在疫情期间,对化石燃料的替代工作仍然在继续。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响,全球石油需求预计将持续数年受挫。石油出口国必须从根本上改变其经济结构,以应对残酷的现实。

这是国际能源署(IEA)的执行干事法提赫•比罗尔于10月13日传递的信息。该机构再次下调了石油前景预期。比罗尔警告说,由于新冠肺炎疫情,未来几年,石油需求将会疲软。

但即便在疫情消退之后,市场前景也将提振困难。IEA表示,到20世纪20年代末,石油需求才能达到与疫情前趋平的状态——IEA更喜欢用“平稳期”一词,而不是“石油峰值”。IEA的这一预测与欧佩克在上周的预测基本趋同。

经济中某些明显部分将发生转变。IEA指出:“汽车的石油需求在未来十年内将维持在2019年的水平,到2030年后则将下降。”

期望值不高的未来市场,叠加当前石油需求的下降和价格的波动,以及世界多国气候政策的转变——意味着石油国家必须找到其他方式来维持其经济发展。

比罗尔于10月13日在接受彭博电视台采访时说:“他们必须趁早做好准备。”

前景不佳

IEA在其年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中警告说,预计新冠肺炎疫情对全球石油需求的阻碍至少会持续到2023年,甚至更晚。

10月13日,比罗尔说:“石油需求的复苏可能不会像我们几个月前认为的那样快,主要是因为世界各国政府并没有很好地控制疫情蔓延。”

现在,石油需求复苏的关键因素是新冠肺炎疫情——更确切地说,是全球经济——何时才可以恢复到大流行前的水平。就目前而言,情况看起来并不好。

“经济反弹可能比人们所希望的要来得慢。”比罗尔说。他认为,如果政府不改变政策,市场需求也不会向其他形式能源转变。

然而,这还不是唯一的逆境。自新冠肺炎全球蔓延以来,IEA一直警告称,任何经济复苏都必须囊括向低碳能源的转型,包括从氢到核能等各种能源形式。

比罗尔说,这一转变让那些依赖石油和天然气收入的国家改头换面,在他们当中,很多国家的经济与油价呈“一对一”的联动关系。

他补充说,能源结构的多元化需要切实的财政手段。仿佛“旧事幻现”:这个情节早已老生常谈,但到现在为止,(多元化)还是没有实现。

比罗尔表示,这种(对石油的)依赖是“充满风险且荆棘丛生的”(risky and dangerous),甚至包括沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克在内的石油经济体也越来越关注相关警告和呼吁。

面临风险的不仅仅是国家。随着疫情缓解,油价下跌,包括休斯顿和卡尔加里在内的加拿大城市(和地区)也在努力应对他们的经济未来。

IEA并没有公布“石油峰值”的具体日期,比罗尔表示,业内认为石油需求峰值尚未过去,并预测随着经济复苏,需求将会回升。与此同时,英国石油(BP)等行业巨头也预测,石油需求实际上可能永远不会复苏,并提出了峰值已经过去的可能。

包括BP在内的几家老牌石油和天然气公司已经承诺到2050年实现碳排放“净零”的目标,这也表明,即使在疫情期间,对化石燃料的替代工作仍然在继续。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

Oil demand is expected to take a years-long hit from COVID-19—and oil-dependent export nations must fundamentally shift their economies to meet that reality.

That was the message on October 13 from Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, which ultimately downgraded its oil outlook yet again. He warned that oil demand, thanks to COVID, will be weak in the coming years.

But even after the pandemic (hopefully) fades away, the market prospects don't look much better. Oil demand will ultimately flatten—the IEA prefers the word "plateau" to "peak oil"—by the end of the decade, the IEA says, a prediction similar to one made by OPEC last week.

You'll see that shift in some obvious parts of the economy. "This reinforces oil demand for cars plateauing in this decade at roughly 2019 levels of demand, before declining after 2030," the IEA said.

That future, paired with current sinking demand for oil and volatile prices, and broad shifts towards climate policies worldwide, means that the world's petrostates must find other ways to sustain their economies.

"They have to prepare themselves before it is too late," Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on October 13.

A weak outlook

In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA warned that COVID-19 is now expected to depress global oil demand until at least 2023, or even later.

"The recovery of oil demand may not be as quickly as we or the others thought a few months ago, mainly because of the governments around the world not being able to have the coronavirus under control," Birol said on October 13.

The crucial factor for oil demand is now the virus—more to the point, when will the global economy return to pre-pandemic levels. And it doesn't look good.

"The rebound may be slower than one hopes to see," he said. Demand also won't shift to other forms of energy without changes in government policy, Birol said.

But it's not the only headwind. Since the start of the pandemic, the IEA has been warning that any economic recovery must include the energy transition to low-carbon sources, including the full range of options, from hydrogen to nuclear.

That shift will transform countries that depend on oil and gas revenues—many of which have economies with a "one to one" relationship with oil prices, Birol said.

Such a diversification requires serious financial means, and he added that there is an element of déjà vu: "we saw this movie before, and [diversification] didn't happen."

But such a dependency is now "risky and dangerous," he said, and even oil economies including Saudi Arabia and Iraq are increasingly heeding the call, he added.

It's not just countries that are at risk. As the pandemic has sunk oil prices once again, cities and regions including Houston and Calgary, Canada are also grappling with what their economic future will look like.

The IEA did not lay out a specific date for "peak oil," and Birol said the industry does not think that the peak for oil demand has already passed, forecasting that demand will return as economies recover. Meanwhile, industry majors like BP have also forecast that oil demand may in fact never recover, and laid out some scenarios where the peak has already passed.

Several major legacy oil and gas companies, including BP, have committed to "net zero" carbon emissions goals by 2050, also indicating a shift away from fossil fuels that has continued even amidst the pandemic.

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