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科技股也会“假摔”?多家投行预测仍有上涨空间

科技股也会“假摔”?多家投行预测仍有上涨空间

Anne Sraders 2020年09月16日
高盛、德意志银行等大投行仍然看多科技股。

过去几周,科技行业的投资者遭受了双重打击。但9月14日,情况似乎正在好转。

9月2日,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数创下新高,但出于对过度期权交易和估值过高的担忧,该指数很快出现了史上最快的回调,过去一周下跌近4%。但在9月14日下午晚些时候的交易时段,纳斯达克指数上涨约2%,这表明投资者正在走出上一周纳斯达克指数崩盘的阴霾。

上周,特斯拉(Tesla)和苹果(Apple)等大公司拖累了整个科技行业,但截至9月14日收盘时,这两只股票分别上涨了3%和12%。

摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)的首席投资官丽莎•莎莱特在9月14日发布的一篇报告中写道:“上周科技股暴跌7%属于技术性回调,不足以中断长期持续增长股主导市场的趋势。”

与此同时,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师在9月11日的报告中写道,9月初的市场下行不会持续很长时间,他们预测未来几个月,科技股会继续上涨。

富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的萨米尔•萨马纳从技术的角度指出,标普500和纳斯达克“都能够维持在6月的水平以上。从更高的高点和更高的低点的角度……这两个股指可以维持在高于6月和7月的水平,是一个非常鼓舞人心的结果。”他告诉《财富》杂志:“目前,市场向投资者透露了很多信息:‘大盘趋势没有问题,我们只是经历了一轮上涨和一轮回落。’”事实上,萨马纳指出,科技股目前实际上依旧维持在8月中旬的水平。

对乐观的投资者而言,9月14日的上涨明确表明市场只是陷入疯狂,但没有出现问题。

Commonwealth Financial Network公司的投资组合管理负责人彼得•艾斯利告诉《财富》杂志:“关于科技股的反弹,回顾上周的行情你会发现,当时的情况更像是一次‘假动作’。那只是市场在重新设置预期,重新设定估值,而不是源于基本面的变化。我认为经过小幅回调之后,投资者能够开始意识到支撑经济和市场的坚实基础是多么可靠。”他认为,9月14日的反弹很大程度上是因为过去6至12个月内“大幅上涨”的科技股现在与几周前的水平相比“价格较低”,吸引了投资者重新进入市场争相认购。

萨马纳认为,上周发行的10年期和30年期国债“被市场吸收”平息了对更高利率的担忧,“随后在周末的大量并购交易显示出首席执行官们对经济的信心,另外波动性指数和美元等指标表明财政状况正在好转,”这些是9月14日股市上涨的主要宏观原因。他说:“这些因素帮助提振了投资者的情绪,使市场结束了过去一两周的波动,实现反弹。”

正如《财富》杂志在上周的报道,依旧有一些看涨的迹象,可以预测出科技股未来的走向。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

过去几周,科技行业的投资者遭受了双重打击。但9月14日,情况似乎正在好转。

9月2日,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数创下新高,但出于对过度期权交易和估值过高的担忧,该指数很快出现了史上最快的回调,过去一周下跌近4%。但在9月14日下午晚些时候的交易时段,纳斯达克指数上涨约2%,这表明投资者正在走出上一周纳斯达克指数崩盘的阴霾。

上周,特斯拉(Tesla)和苹果(Apple)等大公司拖累了整个科技行业,但截至9月14日收盘时,这两只股票分别上涨了3%和12%。

摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)的首席投资官丽莎•莎莱特在9月14日发布的一篇报告中写道:“上周科技股暴跌7%属于技术性回调,不足以中断长期持续增长股主导市场的趋势。”

与此同时,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师在9月11日的报告中写道,9月初的市场下行不会持续很长时间,他们预测未来几个月,科技股会继续上涨。

富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的萨米尔•萨马纳从技术的角度指出,标普500和纳斯达克“都能够维持在6月的水平以上。从更高的高点和更高的低点的角度……这两个股指可以维持在高于6月和7月的水平,是一个非常鼓舞人心的结果。”他告诉《财富》杂志:“目前,市场向投资者透露了很多信息:‘大盘趋势没有问题,我们只是经历了一轮上涨和一轮回落。’”事实上,萨马纳指出,科技股目前实际上依旧维持在8月中旬的水平。

对乐观的投资者而言,9月14日的上涨明确表明市场只是陷入疯狂,但没有出现问题。

Commonwealth Financial Network公司的投资组合管理负责人彼得•艾斯利告诉《财富》杂志:“关于科技股的反弹,回顾上周的行情你会发现,当时的情况更像是一次‘假动作’。那只是市场在重新设置预期,重新设定估值,而不是源于基本面的变化。我认为经过小幅回调之后,投资者能够开始意识到支撑经济和市场的坚实基础是多么可靠。”他认为,9月14日的反弹很大程度上是因为过去6至12个月内“大幅上涨”的科技股现在与几周前的水平相比“价格较低”,吸引了投资者重新进入市场争相认购。

萨马纳认为,上周发行的10年期和30年期国债“被市场吸收”平息了对更高利率的担忧,“随后在周末的大量并购交易显示出首席执行官们对经济的信心,另外波动性指数和美元等指标表明财政状况正在好转,”这些是9月14日股市上涨的主要宏观原因。他说:“这些因素帮助提振了投资者的情绪,使市场结束了过去一两周的波动,实现反弹。”

正如《财富》杂志在上周的报道,依旧有一些看涨的迹象,可以预测出科技股未来的走向。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Tech investors have been whipsawed the past few weeks. But things appeared to be looking up on September 14.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq hit a new high on Sept. 2, then quickly posted a record speed correction, dropping roughly 4% over the past week on worries of overly exuberant options trading and overheated valuations. But in late afternoon trading on September 14, the index rallied roughly 2% as investors move on from the past week's rout.

Big names like Tesla and Apple, which dragged the sector down last week, posted strong rallies, up 3% and 12% respectively as of September 14's close.

According to Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief investment officer, "last week’s 7% technology sell-off was technical in nature and not sufficient to break market leadership trends that have favored long duration secular growth names," she wrote in a note on September 14.

Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank wrote in notes on September 11 that the early September sell-off is likely short-lived, predicting stocks will likely continue their trek higher in coming months.

From a technical standpoint, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Sameer Samana points out the S&P 500 and Nasdaq "both were able to hold above the levels we saw in June. From a higher highs, higher lows standpoint, ... the fact you were able to hold at higher levels than June or July is encouraging," he tells Fortune. "Right away, it tells a lot of investors, 'Nothing is wrong with the trend, we just got a blowoff and kind of a pullback'." In fact, Samana points out the sector is still essentially trading at levels hit in mid-August.

And to some bullish investors, the rally on September 14 may be the all-clear that markets were merely frenzied, not in trouble.

"As far as the rebound in tech, you need to look back to last week, which was basically more of a head fake more than anything," Peter Essele, the head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network, tells Fortune. "It was a resetting of expectations, a resetting of valuations, it was not fundamentally-driven, and I think after that slight downturn, that slight selloff, investors are starting to realize just how much of a solid footing the economy and markets are really on." He believes much of the rally on September 14 is from investors moving back in and snapping up tech names that have "seen pretty significant appreciation" over the past six to 12 months and are "basically on sale" from levels a few weeks ago.

And for Samana, the "absorption" of 10-year and 30-year Treasury issuances last week that quelled fears of higher interest rates "followed by a good bit of M&A over the weekend, which shows confidence on the part of CEOs, and some easing in financial conditions like the volatility indices [and] the dollar" are all bigger macro reasons why markets are climbing higher on September 14. "All are helping sentiment on the day and leading to a rebound from the volatility over the past week or two," he notes.

And as Fortune reported last week, there are still bullish signs indicating where tech stocks may go from here.

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