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印度贫民窟已“群体免疫”?新冠抗体阳性人数已过半

印度贫民窟已“群体免疫”?新冠抗体阳性人数已过半

Naomi Xu Elegant 2020年07月31日
他们似乎已在不经意间实现了“群体免疫”。

今年7月的一项调查发现,在印度金融中心城市孟买,其部分地区已有约57%的居民获得新冠病毒抗体。他们似乎已在不经意间实现了“群体免疫”,免受新冠病毒的侵扰。

此次调查对孟买三个区域的6936位居民进行了检测。其中,有57%的居民检测结果呈新冠抗体阳性——该抗体是人体免疫系统在对抗新冠病毒时分泌的一种蛋白质,呈阳性就代表新冠病毒感染者已获得痊愈。

被调查地区包括印度一些最大的贫民窟,其中的达拉维贫民窟居民数量高达100万,人口密度是美国曼哈顿的10倍以上。

据调查结果,在孟买人口较为年轻化的区域,新冠死亡率在0.05%到0.1%之间。而孟买目前整体平均死亡率约为5.6%,确诊病例逾11万,在册死亡人数为6180人。

对此,印度流行病学研究所科学顾问委员会主席贾亚普拉卡什•穆里耶表示:“孟买贫民窟有可能已经获得群体免疫。”

群体免疫,是解决新冠病毒大流行的一种方式,政府不必采取任何封锁限制措施,只需任人们照常生活,让病毒传播即可。理论上讲,人们会经历从染病、康复到免疫的一系列过程。在此期间,病毒的传播会逐步减缓,而已免疫者亦可保护未免疫者安全。

芝加哥大学研究人员曾在5月发表的论文中预估,真正达成新冠群体免疫至少需要67%的人口免疫率。梅奥医学中心也估算,美国至少要达到70%的人口免疫率,才能实现群体免疫。当然,70%的新冠疫苗接种率,也同样可实现此目标。

对于孟买受调查区域的高免疫率,其并非有意而为,相反是“不得已而为之”。以达拉维贫民窟为例,其人口密度极高、住房空间有限,根本不具备保持社交距离的条件——一个八口之家要挤在不足10平米的房间内生活,一间厕所最多有80人共用。

刻意达成群体免疫的做法也备受争议。因为它将使最易感新冠的人群面临更大的死亡风险,例如老人、免疫低下者。今年3月,英国政府曾考虑过这一策略,但面对新冠死亡人数不断攀升、公众反对如潮的局面,英政府最终选择放弃。

瑞典是选择实行群体免疫策略的国家,因此,其新冠死亡率比实施封锁防疫的邻国都要高。今年5月调查显示,瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩仅约有14%的人携带新冠抗体,远低于孟买调查显示的免疫率。

目前,印度新冠感染人数增速居全世界首位,但在过去几周,接受调查的几处孟买贫民窟感染人数却在急剧下降。近期的两项研究也预测,新德里和孟买两城市将各有四分之一的人口获得新冠免疫。

美国纽约部分地区的新冠免疫率可能已经比肩孟买——纽约皇后区某诊所中,超过68%的人都已产生新冠抗体。不过,若纽约出现第二波疫情,抗体水平对感染率的影响将不得而知。(财富中文网)

编译:杜心邈

今年7月的一项调查发现,在印度金融中心城市孟买,其部分地区已有约57%的居民获得新冠病毒抗体。他们似乎已在不经意间实现了“群体免疫”,免受新冠病毒的侵扰。

此次调查对孟买三个区域的6936位居民进行了检测。其中,有57%的居民检测结果呈新冠抗体阳性——该抗体是人体免疫系统在对抗新冠病毒时分泌的一种蛋白质,呈阳性就代表新冠病毒感染者已获得痊愈。

被调查地区包括印度一些最大的贫民窟,其中的达拉维贫民窟居民数量高达100万,人口密度是美国曼哈顿的10倍以上。

据调查结果,在孟买人口较为年轻化的区域,新冠死亡率在0.05%到0.1%之间。而孟买目前整体平均死亡率约为5.6%,确诊病例逾11万,在册死亡人数为6180人。

对此,印度流行病学研究所科学顾问委员会主席贾亚普拉卡什•穆里耶表示:“孟买贫民窟有可能已经获得群体免疫。”

群体免疫,是解决新冠病毒大流行的一种方式,政府不必采取任何封锁限制措施,只需任人们照常生活,让病毒传播即可。理论上讲,人们会经历从染病、康复到免疫的一系列过程。在此期间,病毒的传播会逐步减缓,而已免疫者亦可保护未免疫者安全。

芝加哥大学研究人员曾在5月发表的论文中预估,真正达成新冠群体免疫至少需要67%的人口免疫率。梅奥医学中心也估算,美国至少要达到70%的人口免疫率,才能实现群体免疫。当然,70%的新冠疫苗接种率,也同样可实现此目标。

对于孟买受调查区域的高免疫率,其并非有意而为,相反是“不得已而为之”。以达拉维贫民窟为例,其人口密度极高、住房空间有限,根本不具备保持社交距离的条件——一个八口之家要挤在不足10平米的房间内生活,一间厕所最多有80人共用。

刻意达成群体免疫的做法也备受争议。因为它将使最易感新冠的人群面临更大的死亡风险,例如老人、免疫低下者。今年3月,英国政府曾考虑过这一策略,但面对新冠死亡人数不断攀升、公众反对如潮的局面,英政府最终选择放弃。

瑞典是选择实行群体免疫策略的国家,因此,其新冠死亡率比实施封锁防疫的邻国都要高。今年5月调查显示,瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩仅约有14%的人携带新冠抗体,远低于孟买调查显示的免疫率。

目前,印度新冠感染人数增速居全世界首位,但在过去几周,接受调查的几处孟买贫民窟感染人数却在急剧下降。近期的两项研究也预测,新德里和孟买两城市将各有四分之一的人口获得新冠免疫。

美国纽约部分地区的新冠免疫率可能已经比肩孟买——纽约皇后区某诊所中,超过68%的人都已产生新冠抗体。不过,若纽约出现第二波疫情,抗体水平对感染率的影响将不得而知。(财富中文网)

编译:杜心邈

Around 57% of people across parts of India's financial hub of Mumbai have coronavirus antibodies, a July study found, indicating that the population may have inadvertently achieved the controversial 'herd immunity' protection from the coronavirus.

A survey of 6,936 people living in three Mumbai districts found that 57% of the people tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, the proteins produced by the body's immune system to fight off disease and an indicator that a person has been infected by and recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

The surveyed areas included some of India's biggest slums, including one slum, Dharavi, where one million people reside and the population density is more than 10 times that of Manhattan.

According to the survey results, the death rate in the surveyed areas, where the population skews young, is between 0.05% and 0.1%. Mumbai’s overall death rate is currently around 5.6%, with over 110,000 confirmed cases and 6,180 recorded deaths.

“Mumbai’s slums may have reached herd immunity,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of India’s National Institute of Epidemiology.

Herd immunity is an approach to the coronavirus pandemic where, instead of instituting lockdowns and other restrictions to slow infections, authorities allow daily life to go on as normal, letting the disease spread. In theory, enough people will become infected, recover, and gain immunity that the spread will slow on its own and people who are not immune will be protected by the immunity of those who are.

University of Chicago researchers estimated in a paper published in May that achieving herd immunity from COVID-19 would require 67% of people to be immune to the disease. Mayo Clinic estimates 70% of the U.S. population will need to be immune for the U.S. to achieve herd immunity, which can also be achieved by vaccinating that proportion of a population.

The high level of immunity in the surveyed areas in Mumbai was not by design. People in Dharavi, for example, live in extremely close quarters where social distancing is often functionally impossible—families of eight live together in 100-square-foot rooms and up to 80 people share use of a single toilet.

Deliberate herd immunity is a controversial approach because it puts people most vulnerable to COVID-19—the elderly and immunocompromised—at a greater risk of death. The U.K. government considered the strategy in March, but changed tack when the country's death toll started climbing, drawing public criticism.

Sweden chose to pursue the strategy, and it's recorded a higher death rate than neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns. Around 14% of people in Sweden's capital, Stockholm, had coronavirus antibodies in May, much lower than the share recorded by the Mumbai survey, which was conducted by municipal authorities and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, a public research university in Mumbai.

Coronavirus cases in India are currently growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world, but the slums where the survey was conducted have recorded steep drops in infection numbers in the last few weeks. Separate surveys of people in New Delhi and Mumbai recently have estimated that around a quarter of the total population of each city may have coronavirus antibodies.

Some parts of New York City may have reached levels of immunity similar to those recorded in the Mumbai survey. Over 68% of people at a clinic in one Queens neighborhood had coronavirus antibodies. It's still unknown how those antibody levels will affect infection rates in the event of a second wave in New York.

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